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　　基辛格：中美必須停止升級沖突，否則人類可能滑向類似一戰的局勢之中 | 雙語閱讀

　　來源：財經十一人

　　美國和中國的領導人們必須就雙方不可侵犯的界限做出討論，并且做出詮釋來定義這些禁區。這必須設計為可以持續一個較長的時期，不受美國兩黨執政更替的影響

　　Kissinger says U.S．， China must cease escalating threats， or ‘we will slide into a situation similar to World War I’

　　基辛格：中美必須停止升級威脅，否則人類將可能滑向類似于第一次世界大戰的局勢之中

　　The U.S． must realize that it can no longer achieve ‘unilateral superiority’ in economic， technological strength， the famed diplomat says

　　享有盛名的外交家基辛格近日表示：美國必須意識到，自己已經不再能在經濟和科技實力方面保持“單極霸權”了。

　　Henry Kissinger is no stranger to a hostile China．

　　基辛格對于一個充滿競爭意識的中國并不感到陌生。

　　As President Nixon’s national security adviser， Kissinger helped engineer the first official visit by an American delegation to the People’s Republic of China， which ultimately paved the way for Nixon to visit Beijing and the U.S． to resume a cooperative relationship with the country after a long period of diplomatic isolation．

　　作為尼克松總統的國家安全顧問，基辛格幫助設計了美國代表團到中華人民共和國的第一次官方訪問，而這也最終為尼克松訪問北京鋪平了道路，為中美長期的外交孤立關系破冰和恢復互助關系奠定了良好的基礎。

　　On Wednesday afternoon， the famed diplomat warned that rising tensions between the U.S． and China could ultimately lead to a disastrous， kinetic war， in a virtual discussion with Federal Reserve Bank of New York President sponsored by the Economic Club of New York．

　　就在10月7日下午，這位聞名于世的外交家在與由紐約經濟俱樂部贊助的與紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長的一次遠程討論中警告到，中美之間升級的張力可能會最終導致一場災難性的軍事戰爭。

　　“Our leaders and [China’s] leaders have to discuss the limits beyond which they will not push threats， and how to define that，” Kissinger said， adding that a these talks must be designed in such a way that they can be conducted over a long period of time， across administrations of both parties．

　　“我們和中國的領導人們必須就雙方不可侵犯的界限做出討論，并且做出詮釋來定義這些禁區，” 基辛格繼而又提到這些談話必須設計為可以持續一個較長的時期，并且不受美國兩黨執政更替的影響。

　　“You can say this is totally impossible， but if it is， we will slide into a situation similar to World War I，” he continued， pointing out that during the years leading up to the outbreak of war in the summer of 1914， the conventional wisdom then， as today， was that war between the great powers was not conceivable．

　　“你可以認為戰爭是完全不可能發生的，但如果它是可能的，人類將會滑向類似于第一次世界大戰的局面中去，” 他又繼續指出，要知道，在1914年夏天的戰爭爆發之前的幾年時間內，當時世間的普遍觀點就像今天一樣，都認為超級大國之間的戰爭是難以想象的。

　　But even as world leaders at that time didn’t take the threat of war seriously， they were simultaneously building military capabilities and strategies that made it more likely． There are parallels to that technological race and the one occurring today， as the U.S． and China compete for unassailable dominance in domains like artificial intelligence．

　　當時的世界領導人們雖然并沒有嚴肅地看待戰爭的威脅，但他們當時都在打造更強的軍事實力，并制定更多的戰略計劃，這些都使戰爭更有可能發生。當時，也有和如今正在發生的科技競賽類同的情況，就像現今的美中之間正為了在人工智能等領域內毋庸置疑的支配地位而互相競爭。

　　Instead of striving for such dominance， he argued， we should “think of an economic world in which no other country should be able to blackmail us， but where that objective is not designed in such a way that all potential technological capabilities in other countries have to be confronted and reduced．

　　基辛格提出，美國不應該為了上述的統治地位而努力，而是應該“思考如何在一個經濟世界當中令他國無法恐嚇訛詐我們，但這一目標不應該通過對壘和減低其他國家潛在的科技能力這一路徑來達成。”

　　“This is a big challenge for any administration， and it’s not a partisan challenge， it’s a historic challenge because we can’t review it every four to eight years， and if we cannot get clear in our own country about this， we can’t deal with other countries，” he added．

　　“這對于任何執政政府來說都是嚴峻的挑戰， 而且這不只是某一黨派的挑戰，而是一項歷史性的挑戰，因為我們可以每四到八年就回顧它，并且如果我們不能在我們自己的國家中厘清這一問題，我們也不可能處理好其他國家的關系，” 基辛格追加到。

　　U.S．-China relations have receded somewhat from the spotlight in the American political discourse as the COVID-19 epidemic and issues of racial justice and policing have overshadowed the ongoing trade conflict and disputes over Hong Kong’s independence from the mainland． But the Trump administration has sought to blame China， where the novel coronavirus originated， for the international epidemic while it has continued to take a hard line on Chinese companies like the owner of the popular TikTok video-sharing app．

　　美中關系因為一系列原因從美國的政治輿論焦點中淡退了下來，新冠疫情的爆發，種族平等和警察執法的問題都蓋過了持續發酵中的貿易沖突和關于香港對于大陸的獨立性的爭議。但特朗普政權意在指責疫情發源地的中國，為本次全球性疫情爆發的原因，同時也一直對中國公司們態度強硬，就像其對十分受歡迎的視頻分享APP TikTok的母公司所采取的強硬手段。

　　Meanwhile， the Democratic Party has become more united in its desire to strike a combative posture with China． Democratic nominee Joe Biden once championed China’s accession to the World Trade Organization but has recently argued that the U.S． should join with its allies to “confront China’s abusive behaviors and human rights violations，” in an article in Foreign Affairs earlier this year．

　　與此同時，民主黨正出于自身想要給中國營造出一種善戰的姿態的渴望，而變得越加統一。民主黨候選人喬?拜登曾經擁護過中國加入世界貿易組織，但現在卻轉而在今年稍早些時候刊登于Foreign Affairs的一篇文章中，爭辯到美國應該和其盟友共同“對抗中國的暴行和侵犯人權的行為。”

　　“The United States does need to get tough with China． If China has its way， it will keep robbing the United States and American companies of their technology and intellectual property，” he wrote． “It will also keep using subsidies to give its state-owned enterprises an unfair advantage—and a leg up on dominating the technologies and industries of the future．”

　　“美國的確需要對華強硬。如果中國可以隨心所欲的話，它將會持續從美國和美國公司手中掠取科技和知識產權，” 拜登在文章中寫到。“它也會持續性地為國有企業提供資助，從而使他們獲得不公平的優勢—而這又會給其創造在未來的科技和產業領域中處于主導地位的條件。”

　　Kissinger argued that the nature of the technologies and industries of the future make the current U.S．-China conflict a particularly dangerous one， because it’s possible that technologies like artificial intelligence lend themselves to zero-sum thinking and winner-take-all outcomes．

　　基辛格認為，未來科技和產業的性質尤為加劇了美中沖突的危險性，這是由于像人工智能這一類的科學技術可能會使兩國帶入到零和思維中去，并且產生贏家通吃的結果。

　　“The last time we have a comparable technological change was hundreds of years ago， during the enlightenment， when printing was invented and it enabled the unprecedented distribution of knowledge，” Kissinger said．

　　“上一次人類歷史上經歷過的相似的科技進步是幾百年之前，在啟蒙運動期間，印刷術的發明和由此而帶來的知識的普及，” 基辛格說。

　　The essential difference between that time and now， however， is that there was a concurrent flowering of philosophical thinking that created conceptual frameworks for societies to deal with what this new technology had wrought． Kissinger warned， “In the present world， technological thinking is way ahead of conceptual thinking．”

　　當時和現在最根本的分別在于，當時伴隨著技術進步的同時，哲學思想也正愈加繁榮化，而后者也催生了社會如何處理這些科技進步所帶來的變化的概念性框架。基辛格警示到，“而在當今的時代中， 技術性的思維模式正遙遙領先于概念性的思維框架。”

　　原載：2020年10月7日 marketwatch． com，翻譯：楊賽

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