來源：財經十一人　

　　通脹率超過百分之一百萬、數百萬人逃離家園、兩個“總統”互相攻擊、國際制裁紛至沓來……委內瑞拉到底是如何走到這般田地的？眼前的死結又如何解開？

　　by Elizabeth Melimopoulos  

　　Venezuela in crisis： How did the country get here？

　　Venezuela‘s National Assembly， the opposition-controlled legislative body， declared President Nicolas Maduro a “usurper” last week， deepening the political and humanitarian crisis that has engulfed the country． 

　　上周，委內瑞拉反對派領導的國民議會宣稱總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅為“篡權者”，加深了席卷全國的政治和人道主義危機。

　　The declaration came about a week after Maduro was sworn in for a controversial second six-year term following an election largely boycotted by the opposition and considered fraudulent by many within the international community．

　　宣言發布前的一周，馬杜羅剛剛宣誓就職，開啟為期六年的第二個總統任期。這次選舉不僅在很大程度上遭到了反對黨的抵制也被很多國家懷疑存在舞弊。

　　During the ceremony， President Maduro promised to “construct 21st-century socialism” and labelled his opponents as imperialists and fascists． 

　　在儀式上，馬杜羅總統承諾將建設“21世紀的社會主義”，并給他的對手貼上了帝國主義者和法西斯主義者的標簽。

　　Shortly after， Juan Guaido， the head of the National Assembly， said he would be ready to take over as president and hold fair elections if Venezuelans and the armed forces backed him． Guaido has called for opposition protests later this month．

　　不久后，國民議會主席胡安·瓜伊多表示，如果委內瑞拉民眾和武裝部隊支持他，他已準備好出任臨時總統，直到能夠舉行公開選舉。隨后，瓜伊多呼吁人民舉行抗議活動。

　　The developments come against the backdrop of a crippling economy． The annual inflation is now over one million percent， with the price of food and medicines too high for most to obtain． Millions have fled since 2015， according to the United Nations．

　　這場政治動蕩的背景，是委內瑞拉經濟的大蕭條。這個國家去年的通貨膨脹率已經超過百分之一百萬，食品和藥品的價格上漲到絕大多數人都買不起的程度。據聯合國統計，自2015年以來，已有數百萬人逃離委內瑞拉。

　　Sanctions have also complicated the situation， and it could get worse as the United States is considering harsher sanctions that could further reduce imports of Venezuela‘s oil， and deepen the humanitarian crisis． 

　　外界的制裁使情況更加復雜。美國正在考慮加大制裁力度，進一步減少來自委內瑞拉的石油進口，此舉將繼續加深人道主義危機。

　　How did Venezuela get here？委內瑞拉是怎么落到這一步的？

　　2014年3月4日，數千名抗議者在委內瑞拉首都舉行的反政府示威游行

　　Once considered the wealthiest country in Latin America， today， Venezuela is facing an unprecedented economic and political crisis marked by severe food and medicine shortages．

　　委內瑞拉曾被認為是拉丁美洲最富有的國家，如今卻因食物和藥品的嚴重短缺，面臨著前所未有的經濟和政治危機。

　　Critics of the government and members of the opposition argue that Venezuela‘s economic woes are the fruit of years of economic mismanagement， and corruption， but government supporters blame falling oil prices， international sanctions， and the country’s business elite for Venezuela‘s troubles．

　　對政府的批評者和反對派成員認為，委內瑞拉的經濟困境是多年來經濟管理不善和腐敗的結果，但政府支持者將委內瑞拉的困境歸咎于油價下跌，國際制裁和國內的商業精英們。

　　When Maduro took over as president after Hugo Chavez‘s death in 2013， the oil-reliant economy was already in trouble． When global oil prices dropped in 2014， businesses were no longer able to import goods at the same rate as before， skyrocketing prices and inflation．

　　2013年烏戈·查韋斯去世，馬杜羅接任總統。那時，依賴石油的經濟已陷入困境。2014年全球油價大跌，企業再也無法按以前的匯率進口商品，造成了物價飛漲和通貨膨脹。

　　According to analysts， the contraction of the national and per capita gross domestic product （GDP） in Venezuela between 2013 and 2017 was more severe than that of the United States， during the Great Depression， or Russia， and Cuba following the collapse of the Soviet Union， heavily impacting the living conditions of millions．

　　據分析師稱，2013年至2017年期間，委內瑞拉GDP和人均GDP的倒退程度甚至超過了大蕭條時期的美國以及蘇聯解體后的俄羅斯和古巴，嚴重影響了數百萬人的生存條件。

　　In 2014， thousands took to the streets to protest inflation and living conditions． The government cracked down on the protests， leaving at least 11 dead．

　　2014年，數以千計的委內瑞拉人走上街頭抗議通貨膨脹和生活條件。政府鎮壓抗議活動，至少造成11人死亡。

　　In 2015， opposition politicians won a majority in the legislature - the National Assembly - for the first time in nearly two decades． However， in 2016， Venezuela‘s government stripped the National Assembly of powers to oversee the economy， and in March 2017， the judicial branch briefly dissolved the National Assembly．

　　2015年，反對派政客在近二十年來首次贏得國民議會中的多數席位。然而，政府卻在2016年剝奪了國民議會監督經濟的權力，2017年3月，司法部門曾一度解散國民議會。

　　The court reversed its order due to the national and international outcry， but by then massive protests were already taking place． Protests left more than 100 dead， and 1，000 arrested． 

　　由于國內和國際上的強烈反對，法院撤銷了解散過會的命令，但此時已經發生了大規模的游行抗議活動。抗議活動造成100多人死亡，1000人被捕。

　　Maduro also created the National Constituent Assembly in 2017． Stacked with Maduro supporters， the Constituent Assembly has the mandate to drafting or reforming the Constitution．

　　馬杜羅還在2017年創建了制憲議會，其議員大多是馬杜羅的支持者，他們的任務任務是起草和更改憲法。

　　Since then， the crisis has continued． Millions of Venezuelans have fled soaring inflation， food and medicine shortages and unemployment．

　　自那以后，危機一直持續著。數百萬人逃離了這個通貨膨脹、食品和醫藥短缺、失業率飆升的國度。

　　In 2018， Maduro won a controversial election， boycotted by the majority of the opposition． At the beginning of this year， he was sworn in， with the opposition and many within the international community calling him an illegitimate leader． The US also said it is considering further sanctions that would target the oil industry．

　　2018年，馬杜羅在一場有爭議的選舉中獲勝，選舉結果遭到大多數反對派的抵制。今年年初他宣誓就職之后，反對派和國際社會的許多聲音都稱他為非法領導人。美國還表示正在考慮對石油業進行進一步的制裁。 

　　“[This time] It‘s more serious than I’ve heard before，” a refining industry executive familiar with the White House discussions told Reuters news agency． “They are setting the table to pull the trigger if they have to．” 

　　“這一次的情況比我之前聽到的更為嚴重，”一位熟悉白宮內部相關討論的煉油行業高管告訴路透社。“他們正在做準備，以便在必要時扣動扳機。”

　　But despite the challenges， Maduro currently enjoys the support of the military， and the government controls through its supporters most of the country institutions， weakening any attempt by Guaido or the National Assembly from taking power from the president．

　　盡管面臨上述挑戰，馬杜羅目前仍然擁有來自軍方的支持，政府也通過他的支持者控制了大多數國家機構，削弱了瓜伊多和國民議會從總統手中奪取權力的希望。

　　What do the government and its supporters say？政府及其支持者怎么說

　　Maduro has repetitively denied that Venezuela is facing a humanitarian crisis and sustains that the country is being attacked by the opposition， the US and its allies．

　　馬杜羅一再否認委內瑞拉正面臨人道主義危機，并堅持認為該國正受到反對派，美國及其盟國的攻擊。

　　The president has also tried to continue with Chavez‘s policies， attempting to appeal to his supporters’ base．

　　總統還想延續查韋斯的政策，試圖籠絡前任總統的支持者。

　　Maduro insists that the 2018 election was legitimate and that the opposition boycotted it because it knew it would lose． Supporters also argue that the legitimacy of these elections doesn‘t depend on international recognition．

　　馬杜羅堅持認為2018年的選舉是合法的，反對派之所以抵制選舉是因為知道自己會失敗。馬杜羅的支持者還認為，選舉的合法性并不取決于是否獲得國際認可。

　　“This is a show that is trying to destabilise the country，” Maduro said [last week]．

　　“這是一場試圖破壞國家穩定的鬧劇，”馬杜羅上周說。

　　“They are a group of kids that control the opposition and want to play to create chaos， it‘s the same group that carried out the street protests and every day they will have a new show．”

　　“他們是一群控制著反對派的孩子，他們想要制造混亂。每天舉行游行抗議的都是他們那一撮人，而且他們每天還會搞出新的花樣。”

　　Supporters also believe that the opposition is trying to execute an agenda that will lead to more violence．

　　支持者還認為，反對派正在制定一項包括更多暴力行動的計劃。

　　“The opposition is trying to encourage conflict， so that it could justify external intervention，” Juan Romero， a writer， analyst and a government supporter， told Al Jazeera．

　　作家，分析師和政府支持者胡安?羅梅羅告訴半島電視臺：“反對派正試圖加劇沖突，以便為外部干預找個理由。”

　　“The main challenge that the president has is to keep the order with no violence，” Romero added． “It also has the challenge of not falling into isolation with the US and the OAS initiatives．”

　　“總統面臨的主要挑戰是維持秩序不受暴力侵害，”羅梅羅補充說。“他還要盡力不讓國家被美國和美洲國家組織的制裁所孤立。”

　　In September last year， Luis Almagro， leader of the Organization of American States （OAS）， suggested the possibility of military intervention．

　　去年9月，美洲國家組織（OAS）領導人路易斯·阿爾瑪格洛提出了軍事干預的可能性。

　　But despite these challenges， people like Romero remain loyal to this regime and wish for it to continue．

　　但盡管面臨這些挑戰，像羅梅羅這樣的人仍然忠于這個政權，并希望它繼續下去。

　　“I have no doubts of the legitimacy of this government． The president controls all the powers， except that from the National Assembly， it also holds most of the governorates and the municipal councils． This leaves the opposition with the unique resource of violence，” he added．

　　“我對這個政府的合法性毫不懷疑。總統控制著除了國民議會之外的所有權力，還掌控著大多數省和市的議會。這使得反對派只能訴諸暴力手段。”他補充道。

　　Economic sanctions have also played a role in this conflict． Five US refiners significantly reduced or completely replaced purchases of Venezuela crude in 2018． 

　　經濟制裁也在這場沖突中發揮了作用。美國五家煉油廠在2018年大幅減少或徹底取消了對委內瑞拉原油的采購。

　　Venezuela exported 500，013 barrels per day to the US last year， down from 591，422 bpd in 2017． 

　　委內瑞拉去年每天向美國出口500，013桶，低于2017年的591，422桶。

　　Sanctions have not only targetted the oil industry， but also the gold sector．

　　經濟制裁不僅針對石油業，還針對黃金行業。

　　Supporters believe that the government is fighting two battles at the same time． 

　　支持者認為政府正在同時打兩場戰斗。

　　“Venezuela is facing two wars， one at a local level， and one abroad” Alberto Mathison， a government supporter told Al Jazeera．

　　“委內瑞拉面臨兩場戰爭，一場在本地，一場在國外，”政府支持者阿爾貝托·馬西森告訴半島電視臺。

　　“The government has been constantly attacked by the transnationals and the people who manage the industry and the distribution channels， on top of that the opposition is receiving a heavy support from the global right，” Mathison said．

　　“政府一直受到跨國公司以及行業管理者和分銷商的侵害，最棘手的是，反對派正在得到國際勢力的大力支持，”馬西森說。

　　“A global right that doesn‘t acknowledge our own law， and that aims to invade our soil，” he added． “We are resisting and we don’t know when will this stop， we hope this can be resolved in a democratic way．”

　　“這股國際勢力不承認我們自己的法律，并準備侵占我們的土地，”他補充說。“我們正在抵抗，卻不知道何時能停止，我們希望這一切可以通過民主的方式解決。”

　　制憲大會主席迪奧斯達多·卡貝洛（左）前任總統烏戈·查韋斯（中）現任總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅 （右）

　　What does the opposition say？反對派怎么說

　　The opposition and its supporters believe they are living under a “dictatorship”， and consider Maduro‘s government illegitimate． The group also declared itself in a state of “disobedience” in 2017．

　　反對派及其支持者認為他們生活在“獨裁統治”之下，并認為馬杜羅的政府是不合法的。反對派還在2017年宣布自己處于“不服從”狀態。

　　Venezuela‘s opposition blames the previous government of Hugo Chavez and the current one of Maduro for the economic woes the country is facing， the corruption， the violence in the streets and the constant mismanagement． 

　　委內瑞拉的反對派把目前的經濟困境歸罪于前任烏戈·查韋斯和現在馬杜羅執掌的政府，包括腐敗，街頭暴力以及一直以來的管理不善。

　　During the latest series of events， the Venezuelan opposition and a large part of the international community argued that Maduro‘s reelection last May was fraudulent and illegal due to irregularities in the process． 

　　在最近的一系列事件中，委內瑞拉反對派和國際社會的很大一部分人都認為，去年五月的總統選舉存在舞弊和違規現象，因而選舉結果也是非法的。

　　By the time the election took place， most of the candidates who could have contended against the president were barred from running．

　　到選舉舉行為止，大多數可能與總統競爭的候選人都被禁止參選。

　　The US， European Union， the Lima Group and several civil organisations， said Maduro‘s win did not meet international standards．

　　美國，歐盟，利馬集團和幾個民間組織表示，馬杜羅的勝利不符合國際標準。

　　“The elections were not authentically free， parties and people couldn‘t compete， more than seven important parties were declared illegal， there were political prisoners who couldn’t contend and the electoral system didn‘t demonstrate its autonomy or its independence，” Jose Vicente Haro， an expert in constitutional law in Venezuela， told Al Jazeera．

　　“選舉沒有真正的自由，政黨和人民無法參與競爭，超過七個重要政黨被定義為非法，還有些人因為正以政治犯身份服刑而無法參選，選舉制度也沒有表現出應有的自治或獨立，”委內瑞拉憲法專家哈羅告訴半島電視臺。

　　On January 10， opposition leaders branded Maduro‘s second term as illegitimate and called for the National Assembly to declare the presidency vacant．

　　1月10日，反對派領導人將馬杜羅的第二任期定義為非法，并呼吁國民議會宣布總統職位空懸。

　　“If the presidency falls in an illegitimate situation， as it‘s the situation now， the Constitution clearly states that the President of the National Assembly is allowed to take power，” Haro said．

　　“如果總統職位處于非法狀態，就像現在的情況這樣，憲法明確規定國民議會主席可以上臺，”哈羅說。

　　“But he has 30 days to announce a final election date． He is not authorised to stay in power for six years， as it would be the case with an elected president，” he added．

　　“但是國民議會主席必須在30天內宣布一個確定的選舉日期。他沒有被授權執政六年，只有合法選舉出來的總統能這么做，”他補充說。

　　Ronal Rodriguez， a professor and researcher at the University of Rosario‘s Venezuelan Observatory in Colombia， called the situation a “huge institutional mess”．

　　哥倫比亞羅薩里奧大學委內瑞拉研究院的教授和研究員羅納德?羅德里格斯稱目前的情況是“巨大的機構混亂”。

　　“Venezuela has a government that has been sworn in but that lacks international support， except for countries like Russia， China and Turkey， and we have a National Assembly that is trying to promote a person that doesn‘t have the political experience to take power，” he said． 

　　“委內瑞拉已經有一名宣誓就職的總統，但除了俄羅斯、中國和土耳其等國家，他缺乏國際支持，而我們的國民議會試圖讓一個沒有政治經驗的人掌權，” 他說。

　　Supporters also believe the regime has left the country in miserable conditions．

　　反對派支持者還認為，政權已經使國家陷入了悲慘的境地。

　　“Life is really hard， and it‘s getting harder every day in Venezuela，” Rachid Yasbeck， a Venezuelan citizen a militant in the opposition told Al Jazeera．

　　“委內瑞拉的生活真的很艱難，而且每天都變得越來越難，”委內瑞拉公民，反對派的激進分子拉希德·亞斯貝克告訴半島電視臺。

　　“You work for a month， and you can‘t even buy or find cheese， food that is fundamental to the Venezuelan diet． Diseases are increasing to the point of having paludism and tuberculosis， hospitals are in deplorable conditions．

　　“你工作了一個月，拿到的錢卻連奶酪都買不起，甚至找不到哪里能買到奶酪，這可是委內瑞拉飲食中最基本的元素。疾病正在擴散，到了引起瘧疾和肺結核的程度，醫院的環境卻很惡劣。

　　“Our infrastructure is also in ruins， we need a change， and we think we are not too far away． We‘ve noticed internal cracks within the government and the military， the change is not too far ahead，” he added．

　　“我們的基礎設施是一片廢墟，我們需要改變，我們認為這并非遙不可及。我們注意到政府和軍隊內部已經不是鐵板一塊，這種變化就在我們身邊，”他補充道。

　　委內瑞拉國民議會議長胡安瓜伊多在反對黨支持者集會上發表講話

　　What do Venezuelans say？委內瑞拉人怎么說

　　One of the biggest challenges facing Venezuelans is hyperinflation． According to a study released by the National Assembly， by the end of 2018， prices were doubling every 19 days on average．

　　委內瑞拉面臨的最大挑戰之一是惡性通貨膨脹。根據國民議會發布的一項研究，截止2018年底，物價平均每19天就翻一番。

　　Many remain hopeless．

　　許多人都處于絕望狀態。

　　“[Regardless of the politics] we don‘t have a good life [in Venezuela]， we are forced to leave． There are people dying because we don’t have the right medicines in the country， or food， or we don‘t have security in the streets，” Rosina Estrada， a Venezuelan citizen， told Al Jazeera．

　　“（不論政治局勢如何），我們在委內瑞拉都沒有安逸的生活，只能被迫離開家園。有人因為在國內得不到正確的藥物或者食物而死，有人因街頭治安無人維護而死，”委內瑞拉公民羅思娜·埃斯特拉達告訴半島電視臺。

　　The International Monetary Fund anticipates that the country‘s inflation rate will reach 10 million percent in 2019．

　　國際貨幣基金組織預計，2019年該國的通貨膨脹率將達到百分之一千萬。

　　Venezuela is also facing what has become the largest exodus in Latin America history． Over three million people have fled the country since 2014， and it‘s expected to reach 5.3 million by the end of 2019， according to the UN figures．

　　委內瑞拉還面臨著拉丁美洲歷史上最大規模的人口外流。根據聯合國的數據，自2014年以來，已有300多萬人逃離該國，到2019年底預計將達到530萬人。

　　“The situation we are living in is unprecedented． And on top of all the domestic challenges， we are seeing a fragile government that still has some power and force， but that is slowly losing control，” Ramon Pinango， a Venezuelan sociologist， told Al Jazeera．

　　“我們目前所處的生活狀況前所未有。除了國內的所有挑戰之外，我們看到脆弱的政府仍然擁有一些勢力和武力，但僅存的這些也正逐漸失去控制。” 委內瑞拉社會學家雷蒙告訴半島電視臺。

　　The dire situation have led many Venezuelans to question the current government， analysts say．

　　分析人士稱，這種嚴峻形勢導致許多委內瑞拉人質疑執政政府。

　　“Maduro has a big challenge internally with the current hyperinflation [and the situation]， it‘s obvious that his rule doesn’t have the support that Chavez had，” Javier Buenrostro， a professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico， said．

　　墨西哥國立自治大學教授哈維爾·布埃羅斯特羅說：“馬杜羅在國內面臨著惡性通貨膨脹和眼下政治局勢的巨大挑戰，顯然他的統治沒有像查韋斯一樣得到支持。”

　　“But we can‘t forget that the opposition is not characterised for playing fair， and they haven’t found support among the citizens either，” he added．

　　“但我們不能忽視，反對派的手段也不見得光明正大，而且他們也沒有得到公民的支持，”他補充說。

　　The opposition， as a group， has also showed divisions and has failed to demonstrate clear leadership in its movement． 

　　反對派內部也表現出了分歧，在運動中未能顯示出其內部存在明確的領導機制。

　　One clear of example took place in 2017 when four opposition politicians broke with the official line and acknowledged the legitimacy of the Constituent Assembly， after a loss for the group in regional elections． 

　　2017年發生了一個明顯的例子，四名反對派政治家在地區選舉中失利后，違背反對派的官方口徑，承認了制憲議會的合法性。

　　“The Chavismo not only managed to win critical elections [back then]， they also managed to put the opposition in crisis by leading them to an electoral confrontation，” Marco Terugi， an author and political analyst explained． 

　　“查韋斯主義者不僅在當時設法贏得了最重要的選舉，他們還設法通過在選舉時制造內部矛盾來使反對派陷入危機，”作家兼政治分析師馬爾科解釋道。

　　委內瑞拉面臨的最大挑戰之一是惡性通貨膨脹

　　What is expected next？接下來會發生什么？

　　The opposition has called for a series of demonstrations， similar to the ones that took place in 2014 and 2017， on January 23． The date marks the anniversary of the end of the dictatorship of Marco Perez Jimenez．

　　反對派呼吁舉行類似于2014年和2017年1月23日發生的一系列示威活動。這個日子是結束馬科斯·佩雷斯·希門尼斯將軍獨裁統治的周年紀念日。

　　“The opposition is trying to appeal to the symbolism of that day． However， a question that remains to be asked is will [the opposition] take the risk of mobilising the streets， and facing a violent confrontation？ Will they be responsible for those victims？” Ronal Rodriguez said．

　　“反對派試圖利用那個日期的象征意義。然而，是否有人考慮到，反對派會冒著動員民眾，引發暴力襲擊的風險？他們是否應對這些犧牲者負責？”羅納德·羅格里茲說。

　　The international pressure is also expected to intensify， with some countries withdrawing their diplomats and others considering recognising Guaido as the president．

　　預計來自國際的壓力也會加劇，一些國家撤回了外交官，另一些國家則考慮承認瓜伊多為總統。

　　According to Haro， if the National Assembly lets Guaido be sworn in as president， he must then call for elections． 

　　根據哈羅的說法，如果國民議會允許瓜伊多宣誓就任總統，那么他必須召集下一次選舉。

　　“That‘s the mission of the National Assembly， to take the Venezuelans to free and clean elections， where people can freely decide，” Haro added． 

　　“讓委內瑞拉人自由而公正地選舉是國民議會的使命，人民應該自由地決定，”哈羅補充說。

　　But the impasse is not just political． The foreign pressure on the economy and the internal confusion are also hitting the embattled country．

　　但是，陷入僵局的不僅僅是政治。外國對經濟的壓迫和內部混亂也打擊著已然陷入困境的委內瑞拉。

　　“The international community is increasing its pressure， but this does not mean that the regime will fall． If something has been demonstrated by the Chavismo， it is that it knows how to reinvent itself，” Rodriguez said．

　　羅德里格斯說：“國際社會正在增加其壓力，但這并不意味著國家政權將會垮臺。如果說查韋斯主義曾經證明了什么，那就是它知道如何重塑自身。”

　　“The final solution must come from within the country， not from outside，” he added． 

　　“最后的解決方案必須來自內部，而不是外部，”他補充道。

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責任編輯：郭建