專題：美聯儲宣布降息50個基點！開啟降息周期

　　來源：華爾街見聞

　　“如果經濟保持穩健且通脹持續存在，美聯儲會改成更緩慢地降息；而如果勞動力市場意外走弱，或者通脹下降速度快于預期，也準備好激進降息來回應。”

　　9月18日周三，美聯儲主席鮑威爾的記者會釋放出鷹派信號，美股在他講話之處一度繼續上漲，隨后發現苗頭不對而掉頭下挫轉跌，重回午盤前的低點，債市、黃金、匯市也180度大反轉。

　　這主要是因為鮑威爾稱美聯儲只是在“適度校準政策立場”，沒有預先設定的政策路線，將繼續在逐次會議上根據經濟數據來做出決定，未來降息速度可快、可慢甚至還會暫停。

　　比如他提到了幾個政策組合：如果經濟保持穩健且通脹持續存在，美聯儲會改成更緩慢地降息；而如果勞動力市場意外走弱，或者通脹下降速度快于預期，也準備好激進降息來回應。

　　整體來說，鮑威爾意圖打消市場人士對“大幅降息50個基點成為新常態”的激進押注。

　　以下為他在回答媒體提問前的講稿全文（中英對照）：

　　Good afternoon， my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people．

　　下午好，我和我的同事們仍然專注于實現美聯儲的雙重目標，即最大化就業和穩定物價，以造福美國人民。

　　Our economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals． Over the past two years， the labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state． Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7% to an estimated 2.2% as of August， we‘re committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2% goal．

　　美國經濟總體強勁，并已朝著我們的目標取得了重大進展。在過去兩年中，勞動力市場已從之前的過熱狀態降溫。截至8月，通貨膨脹率已從7%的峰值大幅下降至8月份估計的2.2%。美聯儲致力于通過支持最大化就業和將通脹率恢復到2%的目標來保持經濟強勁。

　　Today， the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by a half percentage point． This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance， strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%． We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings． I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments．

　　今天，聯邦公開市場委員會決定降低政策約束程度，將政策利率下調50個基點。這一決定反映出我們越來越有信心，只要適當校準我們的政策立場，勞動力市場的強勁勢頭就能在溫和經濟增長和通脹持續下降至2%的背景下保持下去。我們還決定繼續縮表。在簡要回顧經濟發展情況后，我將就貨幣政策發表更多看法。

　　Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace． GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first half of the year， and available data point to a roughly similar pace of growth this quarter． Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient， and investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from its anemic pace last year． In the housing sector， investment fell back in the second quarter after rising strongly in the first． Improving supply conditions have supported resilient demand in the strong performance of the US economy over the past year． In our summary of economic projections， Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to remain solid， with a median projection of 2% over the next few years．

　　最近的指標顯示，美國經濟活動繼續穩步增長。今年上半年，GDP以2.2%的年率增長，現有數據顯示三季度的增長速度大致相同。消費支出增長保持韌性，設備和無形資產投資已從去年的疲軟速度回升。在住房領域，投資在第一季度強勁增長后在第二季度回落。供應條件的改善支撐了美國經濟在過去一年強勁表現中的韌性需求側。在我們的經濟預測摘要中，FOMC委員會參與者普遍預計美國GDP增長將保持穩健，未來幾年的預測中值為2%。

　　In the labor market， conditions have continued to cool． Payroll job gains averaged 116，000 per month over the past three months， a notable step down from the pace seen earlier in the year． The unemployment rate has moved up， but remains low at 4.2%． Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year， and the jobs to workers gap has narrowed overall． A broad set of indicators suggest that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019．  The labor market is not a source of elevated in inflationary pressures． The median projection for the unemployment rate in the SEP is 4.4% at the end of this year， four tenths higher than projected in June．

　　勞動力市場情況持續降溫。過去三個月，非農就業崗位平均每月增加11.6萬個，與今年早些時候的速度相比明顯放緩。失業率有所上升，但仍保持在4.2%的低位。名義工資增長在過去一年有所放緩，職位空缺與求職人數之間的差距總體上有所縮小。一系列指標表明，勞動力市場的緊張狀況目前比2019年疫情爆發前有所緩解。勞動力市場并不是通脹壓力高企的根源了。美聯儲經濟預測中對今年年底的失業率中值預測為4.4%，比6月份的預測高出0.4個百分點。

　　Inflation has eased notably over the past two years， but remains above our longer run goal of 2%． Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.2% over the 12 months， ending in August， and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories， core PCE prices rose 2.7%． Longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored， as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households， businesses and forecasters， as well as measures from financial markets． The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 2.3% this year and 2.1% next year， somewhat lower than projected in June． Thereafter． The median projection is 2%．

　　過去兩年通脹率明顯下降，但仍高于我們2%的長期目標。根據消費者價格指數和其他數據估計，截至8月的12個月內，名義PCE價格將上漲2.2%，不包括波動較大的食品和能源類別，核心PCE價格將上漲2.7%。長期通脹預期似乎仍良好錨定，這反映在對家庭、企業和預測者的廣泛調查以及金融市場的指標中。美聯儲經濟預測中對今年PCE總通脹率的預測中值為2.3%，明年為2.1%，略低于6月份的預測。2026年及以后的預測中值為2%。

　　Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people． For much of the past three years， inflation ran well above our 2% goal， and labor market conditions were extremely tight． Our primary focus had been on bringing down inflation， and appropriately so， we are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power， especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food， housing and transportation． Our restrictive monetary policy has helped restore the balance between aggregate supply and demand， easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remain well anchored．

　　我們的貨幣政策行動以促進美國人民充分就業和物價穩定為雙重使命。在過去三年的大部分時間里，通貨膨脹率遠高于我們2%的目標，勞動力市場狀況極其緊張。當時我們的主要重點是降低通脹率，這也是理所應當的，我們敏銳地意識到高通脹會造成重大困難，因為它會侵蝕購買力，尤其是對于那些最無力承擔食品、住房和交通等必需品高成本的人來說。我們的限制性貨幣政策有助于恢復總供給和總需求之間的平衡，緩解通脹壓力并確保通脹預期良好錨定。

　　Our patient approach over the past year has paid dividends． Inflation is now much closer to our objective， and we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% ． As inflation has declined， the labor market has cooled， the upside risks to inflation have diminished and the downside risks to employment have increased． We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance， and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate in light of the progress on inflation in the balance of risks．

　　過去一年，我們耐心的策略已獲得回報。通脹現在更接近我們的目標，我們更加確信通脹正持續向2%邁進。隨著通脹下降，勞動力市場已經降溫，通脹的上行風險減少，就業的下行風險增加。我們現在認為實現就業和通脹目標的風險大致平衡，鑒于風險平衡中通脹的進展，我們關注雙重使命中各方目標面臨的風險。

　　At today‘s meeting， the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a half percentage point to four and three quarters percent to 5%． This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market， and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance．

　　在今天的會議上，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率目標區間下調50個基點，至4.75%到5%。這一政策立場的重新校準將有助于保持經濟和勞動力市場的強勁，并將繼續推動通脹進一步下降，同時我們正開始轉向更中性的立場。

　　We are not on any preset course． We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting． We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation． At the same time， reducing restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment． In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate， the Committee will carefully assess incoming data， the evolving outlook and the balance of risks．

　　我們沒有預先設定的政策路線，將繼續在每次會議上做出決定。我們知道，過快減少政策限制可能會阻礙通脹降溫的進展。同時，過慢減少限制可能會過度削弱經濟活動和就業。在考慮對聯邦基金利率目標區間進行額外調整時，委員會將仔細評估即將公布的數據、不斷變化的前景和風險平衡。

　　In our Sep FOMC， participants wrote down their individual assessments of an ap0propriate path for the federal funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward， if the economy evolves as expected． The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.4% at the end of This year and 3.4% at the end of 2025． These median projections are lower than in June， consistent with the projections for lower inflation and higher unemployment as well as the changed balance of risks．

　　在我們9月份的FOMC會議上，參與官員們根據各自對未來最可能出現情況的判斷，寫下了他們對聯邦基金利率適當路徑的評估，前提是經濟按預期發展。中位數預測是，聯邦基金利率的適當水平在今年年底為4.4%，2025年底為3.4%。這些中位數預測低于6月份的預測，與通脹下降、失業率上升以及風險平衡變化的預測一致。

　　These projections， however， are not a committee plan or decision． As the economy evolves， monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals． If the economy remains solid and inflation persists， we can dial back policy restraint more slowly． If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly， or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated， we are prepared to respond．

　　然而，這些預測并非委員會的計劃或決定。隨著經濟的發展，貨幣政策將進行調整，以最好地促進我們的最大化就業和價格穩定目標。如果經濟保持穩健且通脹持續存在，我們可以更緩慢地放松政策限制。如果勞動力市場意外走弱，或者通脹下降速度快于預期，我們也準備好做出回應。

　　Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate． The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy， maximum employment and stable prices． We remain committed to supporting maximum employment， bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal， and keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored． Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans． We understand that our actions affect communities， families and businesses across the country． Everything we do is in service to our public mission． We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals．

　　政策已準備好應對我們在履行雙重使命時面臨的風險和不確定性。美聯儲被賦予了兩個貨幣政策目標：最大化就業和穩定物價。我們仍致力于支持充分就業，將通脹率降至2%的目標，并保持長期通脹預期良好錨定。我們能否成功實現這些目標對所有美國人來說都至關重要。我們明白，我們的行動會影響全美的社區、家庭和企業。我們所做的一切都是為了履行我們的公共使命。美聯儲將竭盡全力實現最大化就業和物價穩定的目標。

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責任編輯：李桐