黨的二十屆三中全會提出，科學的宏觀調控、有效的政府治理是發揮社會主義市場經濟體制優勢的內在要求。必須完善宏觀調控制度體系，統籌推進財稅、金融等重點領域改革，增強宏觀政策取向一致性。

　　2024年以來，財政政策實施力度持續加大，超長期國債供給大幅增加。1―8月，國債發行規模為8.4萬億元，同比增長33%；超長期特別國債發行規模為8220億元，同比增長257%，在支持辦好國家重大戰略和重點領域安全能力建設方面發揮積極作用。同時，加快中央預算內投資下達和地方政府債券發行使用，推動經濟延續回升向好態勢。其間，10年期國債收益率下降39BP，信用利差收窄至歷史低位。

　　貨幣政策維持支持性立場，為經濟持續回升向好提供金融支持，貨幣政策工具和框架機制也在發生變化。貫徹落實中央金融工作會議要求，2024年8月，中國人民銀行開展了公開市場國債買賣操作，向部分公開市場業務一級交易商買入短期限國債并賣出長期限國債，全月凈買入債券面值達1000億元。“買短賣長”操作有助于減緩國債收益率曲線長端單邊快速下行趨勢，也符合引導短期利率下行的調控目標，能夠更好地發揮利率等價格型調控工具作用。

　　綜合我國經濟當前穩增長的需要和長遠高質量發展的總要求，需要進一步擴大國債發行規模。宏觀經濟方面，擴大國內需求、改善市場預期、防范金融風險、完成今年經濟增長目標等，都需要財政政策持續發力，增加國債供給。金融市場方面，在“資產荒”背景下，市場對于長期限國債配置需求旺盛，增加國債供給有利于促進債券市場供求平衡。此外，國債發行規模擴大空間充足。目前我國中央政府債務總額與國內生產總值的比率不到30%，遠低于美國、日本等發達國家。

　　擴大國債發行規模，需要加強政策統籌協調，完善相應的配套措施。一是通過降準、加大公開市場凈投放力度、鼓勵商業銀行靈活調整準備金等方式，為國債發行提供合理流動性。二是適時適度調整利率，逐步加大公開市場國債現券買賣力度，理順政策利率和市場利率體系，提升政策傳導效率。三是增加利率風險管理工具。進一步穩慎擴大國債期貨參與方，適時推出國債期權產品，促進期現聯動、穩健發展。四是深化國債市場對外開放。通過境外信息平臺與境內一級市場直通安排，便利境外投資者參與國債一級市場認購。

　　面對世界百年未有之大變局，穩步推進中國式現代化和高質量發展，需要宏觀政策的保駕護航。加強統籌協調，增強宏觀政策取向一致性，有利于兼顧短期穩定、長期增長和結構優化三大目標，為中國經濟高質量發展提供強有力的政策保障。

　　◇ 本文原載《債券》2024年9月刊

　　◇ 作者：鐘言

　　◇ 編輯：陳森　劉穎

　　Strengthening Planning and Coordination and Enhancing the Consistency of Macro Policy Orientation

　　Zhong Yan

　　At the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee， it was pointed out that proper macro-control and effective government governance are the inherent prerequisites for leveraging the advantages of the socialist market economic system． Therefore， it is necessary to optimize the macro-control system， promote the reform in key areas such as finance and taxation， and enhance the consistency of macro-policy orientation．

　　Since 2024， the fiscal policy has intensified by augmenting the supply of ultra-long-term treasury bonds． From January to August， the issuance of treasury bonds was RMB8.4 trillion， up 33% year-on-year． The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds was RMB822 billion， a year-on-year increase of 257%， which played an active role in supporting major national initiatives and key areas． At the same time， the use of the central budget and the issuance of local government bonds were accelerated to maintain  economic recovery． During this period， the yield of 10-year treasury bonds fell by 39 bps， and the credit spread narrowed to a historical low．

　　The monetary policy maintains a supportive position and provides financial support for sustained economic recovery． Monetary policy tools and framework mechanisms are changing． In accordance with the Central Financial Work Conference， in August 2024， the People’s Bank of China launched the operation of buying and selling treasury bonds in the open market， buying short-term bonds from primary dealers and selling long-term bonds． The net value of bonds bought in August reached RMB100 billion． This operation could slow down the unilateral downward trend of the treasury yield curve at the long-end， and also facilitate the regulation goal of bringing down short-term interest rates， thus better leveraging the role of interest rates as a price-based regulatory tool．

　　To support steady economic growth at the current stage and promote high-quality development in the long term， it is necessary to further increase the issuance of treasury bonds． From the perspective of macro-economy， sustained fiscal support from increased supply of treasury bonds is required for expanding the domestic demand， improving market expectations， preventing financial risks and achieving this year’s economic growth target． In terms of the financial market， in the context of an “asset shortage”， the market has a strong demand of long-term treasury bonds and therefore increasing the supply of treasury bonds help lead to a balance between supply and demand in the bond market． Besides， there is ample room for the expansion of treasury bond issuance． At present， the ratio of China’s central government debt to its GDP is less than 30%， far lower than that of developed economies such as the US and Japan．

　　With the increased issuance of treasury bonds， it is necessary to strengthen policy coordination and improve the corresponding supporting measures． First， it is proposed to provide proper liquidity for the issuance of treasury bonds by lowering the RRR， increasing the net supply in the open market， and encouraging commercial banks to flexibly adjust their reserves． Second， it is suggested to adjust interest rates in a timely and appropriate manner， gradually increase the buying and selling of treasury bonds in the open market， coordinate the policy interest rate and market-based interest rates， and improve the efficiency of policy transmission． The third is to provide more interest rate risk management tools． To this end， it is necessary to include more participants into the treasury bond futures market in a prudent manner， launch treasury bond option products in a proper manner， and promote the sound interaction and development of the futures market and the spot market． The fourth is to deepen the opening-up of the treasury bond market． Enhanced connectivity between overseas information platforms and the domestic primary market could make it more convenient for overseas investors to participate in the primary market of treasury bonds．

　　In the face of the unprecedented changes in the world in a century， the steady promotion of the Chinese path to modernization and high-quality development requires effective macro policies． Strengthening overall planning and coordination， and enhancing the consistency of macro policy orientation， is conducive to balancing the three major goals of short-term stability， long-term growth， and structural optimization， thus providing strong policy support for the high-quality development of the Chinese economy．

　　◇ Editors： Chen Sen， Liu Ying

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責任編輯：趙思遠