意見領(lǐng)袖丨王文（中國(guó)人民大學(xué)重陽金融研究院執(zhí)行院長(zhǎng)）

　　北京再次發(fā)現(xiàn)新冠本土病例的周末，我正好應(yīng)邀參加在河南省會(huì)鄭州舉行的“空中絲綢之路”（Air Silk Road）座談會(huì)。說實(shí)話，當(dāng)時(shí)的心情是戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)兢兢，一直戴著口罩，不與任何人握手，發(fā)完言后立刻離開會(huì)場(chǎng)。四個(gè)月的抗疫經(jīng)歷，讓我變得自覺，生怕從北京來的自己成了新的傳染源。

　　相比之下，從北京去的幾位歐洲國(guó)家駐華大使看上去卻很輕松。他們對(duì)中國(guó)疫情很放心，也高度贊賞從鄭州飛歐洲“空中絲綢之路”的不錯(cuò)進(jìn)展，更看好后疫情時(shí)代的中國(guó)以及河南的發(fā)展前景。盧森堡首相貝泰爾還專門發(fā)來視頻贊許河南的全球貢獻(xiàn)。會(huì)上，河南省長(zhǎng)尹弘雄心勃勃，希望在借“空中絲綢之路”幾年來的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)推動(dòng)河南更高水平的對(duì)外開放。

　　2020年初夏的地球，恐怕很難想象在其他國(guó)家的哪個(gè)城市，會(huì)有這樣高規(guī)格的推動(dòng)本地城市融入全球化的會(huì)議。在西方媒體里，到處都叫嚷著“全球化已死”、“本國(guó)第一”，推動(dòng)全球化有時(shí)竟變得有一些非主流。

　　從這個(gè)角度看，這個(gè)座談會(huì)像是來自中國(guó)的一劑蘇醒針，打在已休克兩個(gè)多月的全球化身上，希望治愈病得不輕、因疫情病情加重的全球化。

　　數(shù)據(jù)證明了中國(guó)的確是全球化穩(wěn)定的正能量。根據(jù)世界貿(mào)易組織的報(bào)告預(yù)估，新冠肺炎疫情將使2020年全球貿(mào)易縮水13%至32%。這個(gè)縮水主要來自美國(guó)。作為全球第二大貿(mào)易國(guó)、第一經(jīng)濟(jì)體，2020年美國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易總額逐月下降，4月比1月下降了22%。而作為全球第一貿(mào)易大國(guó)的中國(guó)，在2月觸底后呈反彈之勢(shì)，5月份已大體接近于疫情前的正常值，成為全球貿(mào)易的壓艙石。

　　換句話說，美國(guó)的萎靡讓世界貿(mào)易變得越來糟糕，而中國(guó)的復(fù)蘇努力讓世界貿(mào)易止損。觀察國(guó)際投資、并購、物流、信息、貨幣等全球流動(dòng)的基本變量，同樣呈現(xiàn)出了中國(guó)興、美國(guó)衰的消長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。如果再增加特朗普政府不斷“退群”的變量，全球化正在越來越表現(xiàn)出“去美國(guó)化”、“趨中國(guó)化”的全新跡象。

　　全球化肯定不會(huì)死。人類文明進(jìn)程本身就是伴隨全球化交流的進(jìn)程。16世紀(jì)前，早期全球化是零散的、缺乏系統(tǒng)的，以香料絲綢為主的東西方文明交流。此后，以歐洲列強(qiáng)的殖民擴(kuò)張為主要?jiǎng)恿Γ蚧尸F(xiàn)出技術(shù)普及、人口流動(dòng)、文明融合的初期跡象。而20世紀(jì)以后，美國(guó)的貢獻(xiàn)則依賴于信息產(chǎn)業(yè)革命，讓世界互動(dòng)呈現(xiàn)前所未有的頻繁盛況。

　　可惜的是，美國(guó)領(lǐng)銜的全球化并沒有帶來共贏的結(jié)果。二戰(zhàn)以后，新獨(dú)立的100多個(gè)亞非拉國(guó)家絕大多數(shù)至今仍是低收入國(guó)家，僅有中國(guó)、韓國(guó)等少數(shù)幾個(gè)國(guó)家從低收入陷阱中爬出。糟糕的是，一些富國(guó)甚至還面臨著跌入陷阱的窘境。這些都成了反全球化者、保護(hù)主義者的重要借口。

　　中國(guó)吸取了全球化的消極教訓(xùn)，很早就主張全球化應(yīng)是共贏的、包容的、平等的、安全的、互聯(lián)互通的，這與單贏的、封閉的、非對(duì)稱的、暴力的、中心邊緣式的美式全球化大相徑庭。

　　在后疫情時(shí)代，中國(guó)想讓全球化煥發(fā)生機(jī)，并不容易。除了必須獲得世界的信任之外，中國(guó)還必須抑制病毒在國(guó)內(nèi)大規(guī)模復(fù)發(fā)的可能性，并通過國(guó)內(nèi)復(fù)蘇刺激下一輪的全球化。當(dāng)務(wù)之急是，中國(guó)既要更精準(zhǔn)地減少人員感染與死亡，還要出臺(tái)足夠有效的政策、創(chuàng)造足夠多的就業(yè)、紓困足夠多的企業(yè)。

　　我對(duì)中國(guó)、對(duì)北京有信心。病毒在變異，疫苗問世仍很難，疫情在一個(gè)或多個(gè)中國(guó)城市出現(xiàn)小反彈在所能免。不過，中國(guó)人不會(huì)懼怕抗疫進(jìn)入2.0時(shí)代，正如同我在鄭州的戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)兢兢，中國(guó)人正在形成應(yīng)對(duì)傳染病的交往習(xí)慣。社會(huì)心理、口罩?jǐn)?shù)量、檢測(cè)儀器、大數(shù)據(jù)追蹤、醫(yī)療準(zhǔn)備都要強(qiáng)于1月份，沒有理由在新的大考中不做得更好。

　　雖然“考卷”變得更難了，但我覺得，變難的“考卷”，才是中國(guó)邁向全球強(qiáng)國(guó)必須經(jīng)歷的風(fēng)雨。經(jīng)歷過了，風(fēng)雨就成了加冕禮。

　　以下為英文版

　　China won‘t watch globalization die

　　By Wang Wen

　　When new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Beijing in the past weekend， I was attending a forum on the “Air Silk Road” in Zhengzhou， capital city of Central China‘s Henan Province． I was quite nervous， frankly speaking， and I kept my face mask on in the meeting room and didn’t shake hands with anyone． After my speech， I left the forum quickly．

　　Having been through the about-five-month fight against the novel coronavirus， I am cautious． And I， who came from Beijing， was afraid of becoming a new source of infection in Zhengzhou．

　　This was in contrast to how certain European ambassadors who travelled from Beijing appeared at the conference - they were very relaxed． They said they are very confident in China‘s epidemic control measures and spoke highly of the Air Silk Road， or a cargo air route， that links Zhengzhou and Europe． They were optimistic about further prospects for development in China and specifically Henan Province． Prime Minister of Luxembourg Xavier Bettel sent a video clip to compliment Henan’s global contribution． The province‘s governor Yin Hong hopes that Henan will open up more and take advantage of the Air Silk Road．

　　At the moment， it is unthinkable for any city outside of China to organize such a forum now to push for greater integration with globalization． This seems to be out of the mainstream when many Western media outlets believe “globalization is dead，” and that their own countries should come first．

　　The forum in Zhengzhou was an energizing catalyst that reinvigorates the sick state of globalization， which has suffered even more due to the COVID-19 pandemic．

　　Data has proven that China is stabilizer of globalization． The WTO on April 8 said that world trade is expected to fall between 13 percent and 32 percent in 2020． The drop will mainly come from the US， whose imports declined 20.5 percent in April from January while exports fell 28.1 percent in the same period． But China‘s imports and exports in the first five months of 2020 have maintained a slight year-on-year dip of 4.9 percent． Meanwhile， exports in May increased 1.4 percent． China has become ballast stone of world trade．

　　In other words， the declining US has worsened world trade while the revival of China has been striving to save the world from more losses． Given data of the flow of international investment， mergers and acquisitions， logistics， and currency， people can see that China is rising and that the US is clearly declining． In addition to the variables of the reckless Trump administration， globalization is becoming more de-Americanized and more sinicized．

　　Globalization will not die． The process of globalization is a part of the process of human civilization． Before the 16th century， globalization in its early stage was fragmented and unsystematic． It was about spices and silks trade between Eastern and Western civilizations． After that， with the colonial expansion of European powers as the main driving force， globalization showed initial signs of the popularization of technology， population mobility， and civilization integration． After the 20th century， the US made a great contribution to globalization， primarily with an information revolution．

　　It‘s a pity that the US-led globalization hasn’t brought about a win-win result． Most of the over 100 Asian， African and Latin American countries that gained independence after WWII so far are still low-income countries． Only a few countries such as China and South Korea have emerged from cycles of poverty． Worse still， some rich countries are now facing the dilemmas of falling into the middle-income trap． These have all become excuses of anti-globalists and protectionists．

　　China has learned lessons about globalization and has hence advocated that it should be win-win， inclusive， equal， safe and interconnected． This suggestion greatly differs from the US-style of globalization that is unilaterally benefited， exclusive， asymmetric and in which countries are divided into those at the center and those being marginalized．

　　In the post-pandemic era， it‘s not easy for China to revitalize globalization． In addition to winning trust from the outside world， China must also curb the possibility of a large-scale epidemics rebounding． At the same time， China needs to stimulate the next round of globalization through domestic economic recovery．An urgent task now is to reduce infections and deaths and introduce enough effective policies， create as many as possible jobs， and bail out enough companies．

　　I have confidence in China and Beijing． The virus is mutating， and developing a vaccine is very difficult． It‘s inevitable that a small rebound will appear in one or several Chinese cities． However， the Chinese people aren’t afraid of fighting a virus battle 2.0． Chinese people are being accustomed to the social habits that need to be formed to cope with this infectious disease． The preparation in terms of social psychology， number of masks， testing kits， big data tracking， and medical supplies are far superior to what the country had in January． There is no reason that China will not do a better job in the new test this time．  

　　（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China， and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center． His latest book is Great Power‘s Long March Road．）

　　(本文作者介紹：中國(guó)人民大學(xué)重陽金融研究院執(zhí)行院長(zhǎng)，近著有《大國(guó)的幻象：行走世界的日記與思考》。)