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金刻羽:為什么說(shuō)我們可能面臨1930年代的經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條?

2020年03月26日11:23    作者:金刻羽  

  文/新浪財(cái)經(jīng)意見(jiàn)領(lǐng)袖專欄作家 金刻羽(哈佛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士、倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)終身教授)

  目前,世界正面臨著類似1930年代經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條的前景,或許是2009年經(jīng)濟(jì)大衰退的幾倍。對(duì)大多數(shù)人來(lái)說(shuō),這可能是我們一生中經(jīng)歷的最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)事件。這場(chǎng)流行病可與1918年襲擊西班牙的大流感相提并論,那場(chǎng)流感當(dāng)時(shí)感染了西班牙1/4的人口,并且有5000萬(wàn)人死亡。僅僅在兩個(gè)月前,大多數(shù)人還認(rèn)為這場(chǎng)新冠病毒只是一種中國(guó)現(xiàn)象,或至多發(fā)生在亞洲,就像SARS,我們沒(méi)有料想到它會(huì)在世界其他國(guó)家有爆炸式的傳播。與1918年相比,現(xiàn)代醫(yī)學(xué)和科技得到了進(jìn)步,但世界范圍內(nèi)的聯(lián)系也越來(lái)越緊密,每天有1200萬(wàn)人次通過(guò)乘坐飛機(jī)在各個(gè)國(guó)家之間流動(dòng)。

  在目前的情況下,我們面對(duì)的不是像2009年的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)那樣,美國(guó)的產(chǎn)出下降5%,而是美國(guó)和全球的產(chǎn)出下降40%的可能性。這一次,不是信貸緊縮導(dǎo)致的銀行體系的癱瘓,消費(fèi)乏力蔓延到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)。如今,實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的很大一部分完全陷入停滯,這種影響將會(huì)進(jìn)入金融系統(tǒng),并且重新回來(lái)第二次沖擊實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)。

  在2008年經(jīng)濟(jì)大衰退的高峰時(shí)期,美國(guó)每個(gè)月?lián)p失80萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,如今的境況將是每周損失數(shù)百萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位。政策制定者在美國(guó)失業(yè)率達(dá)到10%時(shí)畏縮不前,如今他們?cè)谟懻摰氖I(yè)率徘徊在30%左右。在典型的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中,企業(yè)解雇工人是因?yàn)樯鐣?huì)缺乏消費(fèi)。如今,企業(yè)的做法直接導(dǎo)致大規(guī)模失業(yè),因?yàn)樗鼈儾荒芤膊粦?yīng)該讓人們重返工作崗位。然后,當(dāng)陷入困境的家庭和企業(yè)削減開支時(shí),就會(huì)出現(xiàn)第二輪的裁員潮。

  我們拿餐飲業(yè)舉例,在美國(guó),這是個(gè)規(guī)模接近一萬(wàn)億美元的行業(yè)。還沒(méi)有考慮到航空、旅行、娛樂(lè)、教育和一些必須面對(duì)面的服務(wù)。服務(wù)業(yè)約占到整體GDP的80%,那么,我們很容易就能明白,為何40%的產(chǎn)出會(huì)一夜蒸發(fā)。和2008年最大的區(qū)別在于,如今很多基礎(chǔ)面良好的企業(yè)也會(huì)破產(chǎn),因?yàn)樗麄儧](méi)有生意可做。在2008年金融危機(jī)中,美國(guó)一些大銀行瀕臨違約,政府當(dāng)時(shí)出手拯救了銀行。如今,政府需要出面拯救一切——包括她的人民、中小企業(yè)、銀行和金融機(jī)構(gòu)。

  與整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期相比,全球主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的政府承諾的一攬子援助規(guī)模已經(jīng)大得多了。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)承諾無(wú)限購(gòu)買美國(guó)債券,美國(guó)財(cái)政部通過(guò)了美國(guó)現(xiàn)代歷史上最大規(guī)模的2萬(wàn)億美元經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃。歷史上一貫吝嗇的歐央行已經(jīng)承諾購(gòu)買約1萬(wàn)億歐元的歐洲債券。其口號(hào)是:竭盡全力。他們聲稱自己正在面臨二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)最大的危機(jī)!

  不過(guò)人們很容易理解,盡管貨幣政策反應(yīng)迅速且規(guī)模龐大,但其效果是有限的。原因是這樣的:2007年凍結(jié)了支出和信貸,消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)負(fù)擔(dān)不起重新貸款。因此,旨在降低利率和提供信貸的貨幣政策可以迅速幫助重啟借貸和支出。然而,當(dāng)由于社會(huì)成員產(chǎn)生距離,企業(yè)無(wú)法持續(xù)業(yè)務(wù),或是由于隔離措施限制了人們正常工作,那么貨幣政策就很難使經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)恢復(fù)正常。

  我們是否會(huì)面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條或衰退,要看新冠病毒在全球的傳播會(huì)持續(xù)多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。如果所有國(guó)家都能夠采取像中國(guó)這樣嚴(yán)厲的措施,或者甚至是采取像新加坡、韓國(guó)和日本這些國(guó)家這樣較為溫和但有效的措施,我都不會(huì)如此擔(dān)心。但西方國(guó)家不像亞洲國(guó)家。首先,他們沒(méi)有經(jīng)歷過(guò)SARS的經(jīng)驗(yàn),反應(yīng)遲鈍,很晚才意識(shí)到問(wèn)題的嚴(yán)重性。其次,僅僅在幾周的強(qiáng)制隔離,甚至只是要求避免聚集之后,就已經(jīng)怨聲載道。請(qǐng)注意:這甚至還不是隔離,這只是避免聚集。英國(guó)首相鮑里斯?約翰遜(Boris Johnson)宣布采取隔離措施的幾天后,他父親卻說(shuō)去酒吧喝酒是一種“必要活動(dòng)”,有需要的時(shí)候他一定會(huì)去。我認(rèn)識(shí)的一對(duì)住在豪華的鄉(xiāng)村莊園的70多歲高齡的英國(guó)夫婦告訴我,如果被要求再隔離一個(gè)月,他們會(huì)發(fā)瘋的。我之前在紐約的同學(xué)說(shuō),紐約人不可能在家里待太久,他們寧愿感染這種病。而且最有可能發(fā)生的事情是——他們受夠了,最終會(huì)發(fā)展成為群體免疫力。

  因此,不僅僅是我們的文化、政治制度、公共設(shè)施不同,我們的人民也是不同的。與西方人相比,東亞人是一個(gè)更順從的群體,就像與意大利人相比德國(guó)人也是這樣。與歐洲人相比,美國(guó)人需要的社會(huì)娛樂(lè)活動(dòng)更少。上周末巴黎天氣很好,法國(guó)人不愿錯(cuò)過(guò)離家去海灘的機(jī)會(huì)。 但是不管是美國(guó)人還是歐洲人——他們都厭惡被管制的感覺(jué)。他們對(duì)技術(shù)監(jiān)視也持懷疑態(tài)度,即使危及他們的生命也是如此。

  上述的所有意味著不同國(guó)家在應(yīng)對(duì)這一流行病時(shí),將采取截然不同的方法。大多數(shù)工業(yè)化國(guó)家采取的是緩解措施,推遲高峰期的到來(lái),而不是采取極端措施去遏制病毒。但這也將意味著他們延誤了工作和經(jīng)濟(jì)的恢復(fù)。在中國(guó),我們停止了所有社會(huì)活動(dòng)大約一個(gè)月左右,企業(yè)正在恢復(fù)生機(jī),許多業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)完全恢復(fù),但西方經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)如此。按照他們的策略,經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)少則需要6個(gè)月,甚至更久。如果出現(xiàn)二波感染的爆發(fā),則可能需要18個(gè)月,或者直到治療方法和疫苗的出現(xiàn)才能恢復(fù)正常。如果世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體出現(xiàn)12-18個(gè)月的經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯,我們將面臨的是比大蕭條更嚴(yán)重的挑戰(zhàn)。

  因此,我們不能根據(jù)中國(guó)的抗疫經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)分析世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的前景。盡管國(guó)內(nèi)已經(jīng)沒(méi)有多少新的確診病例,但社會(huì)行為已經(jīng)發(fā)生了根本性的變化。恢復(fù)正常工作后,我們?nèi)匀恍枰^察是否會(huì)出現(xiàn)第二波感染,如果沒(méi)有,我會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)更加樂(lè)觀。一旦西方國(guó)家的感染率開始下降,股票市場(chǎng)就會(huì)恢復(fù)正常。到目前為止,6萬(wàn)億美元的股票市值已經(jīng)蒸發(fā),但最糟糕的時(shí)刻還沒(méi)有到來(lái)。

  中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模足以防止我們的產(chǎn)出出現(xiàn)大幅下降。但是,當(dāng)我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)正常時(shí),世界其他地區(qū)將陷入困境。不僅是出于戰(zhàn)略利益,而且還是道德要求,這都是我們?cè)谶@個(gè)世紀(jì)對(duì)世界各國(guó)施以援手的機(jī)會(huì)。在國(guó)際社會(huì)中如此難以建立的信任,將通過(guò)我們對(duì)人道主義援助真誠(chéng)而實(shí)際的踐行來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。

  附英文原文:

  Why are we facing a 1930‘s Economic Depression? 

  The world is currently facing the prospects of an Economic depression akin to that of the 1930’s, perhaps 10 times the size of the Great recession of 2009. For most of us, it will be the biggest economic event of our lifetime.

  The pandemic that has attacked us is comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu, which infected about 1/4 of the population and where 50 million people had died. Only two months ago, most of us believed that the coronavirus will be a Chinese phenomenon, or at most an Asian phenomenon, like SARS. Little did we expect that it will explode in the rest of the world. Compared to 1918, modern medicine and technology has advanced, but we also have vastly greater interconnections around the world, with 12 million people flying each day .

  What we are potentially facing is not a 5% drop in U.S. output, as was the case of the Great Recession in 2009, but a 40% drop in U.S. output and economies around the world. This time around, it is not a paralysis of the banking system where credit is squeezed, and lack of spending spills over to the real economy. Today, it is that a large part of the real economy will be in a complete stall, which will in turn break the financial system, and then come back to affect the real economy a second time round.  

  During the height of the Great Recession of 2008, the U.S. economy was losing 800,000 jobs per month. Today, it is losing millions of jobs per week. Policymakers balked at a peak of 10 % unemployment rate in the U.S.; today, they are talking about a number that hovers around a 25% unemployment rate. In a typical recession, businesses lay off workers because consumers do not spend enough. Today, businesses destroys employment because they cannot and should not bring people back to work. And then----when distressed families and businesses cut back on spending, there is a second round of layoffs. 

  Take the restaurant sector alone. In the U.S., it is a trillion dollar sector. This does not take into account air travel, tourism, entertainment, education, and face to face services. The service sector as a whole is about 80% of GDP. It is easy to see how a 40% evaporation of output can occur in no time. The main difference is that fundamentally sound businesses today may go bankrupt because there is no business. In 2008, a few major banks were on the verge of default. Today, the government has to come out and rescue its people, its businesses large and small, and its banks. 

  The financial assistance packages that major governments around the world are promising are already on a much larger scale than during the whole of the Great Recession. The Fed has already promised to buy US bonds of `infinity and more’. The Treasury is currently trying to pass a 2 trillion dollar fiscal stimulus, which is the largest fiscal stimulus package in modern U.S. history. The European central bank, which been historically stingy, has pledged to buy about 1 trillion euros worth of European debt. Its motto is : do whatever it takes. They have claimed that they are facing the biggest crisis since World War II! 

  But it is easy to understand why  monetary policy will be limited in its efficacy despite their rapid response and scale. The reason is that in 2007, it was spending and credit that was frozen. Consumers and businesses cannot afford to replay loans or get new ones. So monetary policy aimed at cutting interest rates and making credit available can help jumpstart borrowing and spending. But when businesses are effectively shut down because of social distancing, because businesses cannot get components, or because quarantines limits people’s ability to work, it is not monetary policy that can jumpstart economic activity.

  I would not be so concerned if all countries can take as draconian measures as our country has taken, or even the more moderate but effective measures that Singapore, Korea and Japan have adopted. But the Western countries are not like Asian countries. First of all, they have not had the experience of SARs, and are slow to react and to recognize the severity of the problem. Second, the people are already complaining of being quarantined after only a few weeks or in many cases a few days of mandatory social distancing. Attention: it is not even quarantine---it is social distancing. Days after the UK prime minister Boris Johnson announced social distancing measures, his father had said suggested that going to a pub may be a `necessity’, and that he would go anyway. My British friends over 70 years old who are staying at luxurious countryside estate have told me that they will go crazy if they are required stay there for one more month. My former classmates in New York said that there is no way that New Yorkers can be kept in their homes for too long. They’d rather get the disease. And---what is most likely going to happen is that they will be fed up,  and everyone will end up developing herd immunity. 

  Thus, it is not only that our culture, political systems, public infrastructure are different. Our people are different. Compared to Westerners, East Asians are a more compliant group. So are the Germans—compared to the Italians.  Compared to Europeans, Americans crave and need less socialization. Last weekend saw good weather for Paris, and the Frenchmen could not miss the opportunity to leave their homes for the beach. But from Americans to Europeans--virtually all of them hate perceived notions of suppression. They are also skeptical of technological surveillance even if it is their lives that are at stake.

  All of this means that different countries will take very different approaches in fighting the epidemic. Most industrialized countries have taken the approach of mitigation, delaying the peak, rather than radical measures to contain the virus. But that would mean that they delay the resumption of work and the economy. In China, we stopped all activities for about a month or so, and businesses are springing back to life, with much of the operations fully recovered. That would not be the case for Western economies. With their strategy, it will take at least 6 months for the economy to go back to normal, if not longer. If there is a second wave of infections, then it may take 18 months, or whenever a cure and a vaccine is available. If we are facing a 12-18 month halt in economic activities in major economies around the world, we will be facing a challenge even greater than the Great Depression.

  Thus, we cannot analyse the prospects of the world economy based on our own experience. Even though there are barely any more new cases arising inside China, social behaviour has fundamentally altered. We will still need to see if a resumption of work can spark off a second wave of infection. If not, I would be more optimistic of China‘s economic recovery. As soon as we see the infection rates starting to decline in Western countries, the stock market will start to come back. So far, 6 trillion dollars of stock market value has already been wiped out and we have yet to see the worst.

  The size of our domestic economy is sufficient to prevent a major decline in our output. But the rest of the world will be tanking as we come back to life. It is an opportunity of the century for us to help the rest of the world, not only out of strategic interests, but also out of a moral imperative. The trust that has been so difficult to build in the international community will come about through our genuine and practical efforts of humanitarian assistance.

  本文原發(fā)于《網(wǎng)易》,已獲作者轉(zhuǎn)載授權(quán)

  (本文作者介紹:哈佛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士、倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)終身教授)

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