2006年9月1日全球金融市場周報 新興市場

　　Global Emerging Markets環球新興市場

　　Emerging equities had a mixed week, with some stock markets bucking the downward trend of their developed counterparts, and others succumbing to the negative movement. Brazil's BOVESPA underperformed, shedding 4.4%, as several economists downgraded their 2006 and 2007 growth forecasts for the country. Mexico's IPC also fell (by 0.3%) amid more radical rhetoric from opposition candidate, Manuel Lopez Obrador, over what he would do if Felipe Calderon, a conservative candidate, was announced president. In contrast, Argentina's MERVAL resisted the negative tone and recorded a gain of 1.2%. News that the country's jobless rate had fallen from 11.4% to 10.4% and that industrial production had grown 8.8% year-on-year in July cheered investors.

　　In emerging Europe, reports that Russia had paid off the last of its debt (USD 21.6 billion) to the Paris Club saw the RTS surge 2.9%. The fact that the country has paid off its debt early illustrates how much revenue Russia is earning from oil and means that the nation has saved USD 7.7 billion in interest rate payments which it can spend on infrastructure. Hungary's BUX also managed to finish up on the week (by 2.1%), but Turkey's ISE National 100 fell 1.4% as consumer confidence in the country plummeted to its lowest level since December 2003. Poland's WIG and the Czech PX 50 also fared poorly, falling 1.4% and 0.2% respectively.

　　新興股市上周表現參差，部分股市一反成熟市場向下走勢而上揚，其它股市則表現失利。巴西2006和2007兩年的增長預測被調低，拖累當地股市大跌4.4%。

墨西哥反對派候選人奧布拉多爾表示，若保守派候選人卡德隆宣布就任總統，即會采取激烈行動，墨國股市亦告下挫(跌0.3%)。反之，阿根廷股市未受負面氣氛影響，上升1.2%。該國失業率由11.4%下降至10.4%，工業生產又較去年同期增長8.8%，都令投資者鼓舞。

　　新興歐洲方面，有報導指俄羅斯已向巴黎會所償還最后一筆債務(216億美元)，刺激俄股急升2.9%。俄羅斯提早清償債務，說明了該國從石油賺得的收入何其豐厚，同時亦意味所省回的77億美元利息，可用作拓展基建。匈牙利股市亦高收(升2.1%)，土耳其股市則因消費信心急跌至2003年12月以來最低水平而跌1.4%。波蘭及捷克股市同時表現不濟，分別跌1.4%和0.2%。

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