2006年9月1日全球金融市場周報 歐洲

　　Europe 歐洲

　　European bourses had a challenging week, as investors were buffeted by concerns over the state of the US economy, rising oil prices and some disappointing economic data from the eurozone. In terms of the major markets, the French CAC 40 and UK's FTSE 100 suffered the largest falls, declining 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, while the German DAX fell by a modest 0.1%. Concerns over a slowdown in the US coupled with some unfavourable data on the eurozone economy helped send equities into a downward spiral. Coming after such positive news in recent weeks, a sharp decline in the ZEW Index of German investor sentiment to a five-year low and a drop in the German IFO Index of business confidence raised concerns that growth is perhaps not as firm as expected in Europe's largest economy. A much larger than forecast 2.5% fall in eurozone industrial orders in July added to the general concerns over the eurozone economy, although it did raise hopes that the European Central Bank would pause in its interest rate tightening cycle. In contrast, however, confirmation that the UK economy had grown by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2006, raised concerns that the UK economy is still strong enough to withstand further interest rate rises from the Bank of England.

　　In corporate news, the tail end of the earnings season saw some mixed results. On the positive side, food giant Nestle reported a forecast beating 11% rise in first-half profits, Swiss watchmaker Swatch recorded 24% growth in profits and UK can maker, Rexam, surprised the market with strong earnings figures. However, BHP Billiton was hit by a smaller than expected rise in profits, while strikes at the mining giant's copper mine in Chile which forced its closure also weighed on the stock. Pest controller Rentokil Initial posted a disappointing forecast, while medical software maker, ISoft, had a volatile week as the company announced that it is facing a formal investigation into possible accounting irregularities. In the merger market, the major news was that Italian banking rivals, Banca Intesa and Sanpaolo IMI, would begin talks at the end of the week over a possible merger between the two giants. A merger between Italy's second and third largest banks would create a banking group with a market capitalisation of EUR 55 billion, placing it in the top ten banks of Continental Europe.

　　美國經濟狀況備受關注、油價持續上漲、歐元區部分經濟數據又未如理想，令歐洲股市上周表現失利。主要市場中，法國CAC 40指數和英國富時100指數跌勢最劇，分別跌0.5%及0.4%，德國DAX指數則微跌0.1%。美國經濟有放緩之虞，加上歐元區經濟數據失利，拖累股市反復向下。德國ZEW投資意欲指數急跌至五年低位，德國IFO營商信心指數亦見下挫，扭轉最近數周消息利好的趨勢，亦令市場憂慮德國的增長也許不如預期穩定。歐元區7月份工業訂單減少2.5%，跌幅遠較預測嚴重，歐元區經濟狀況更堪憂慮，但有關情況又令市場憧憬歐洲央行會因而暫停加息。另一邊廂，英國今年第二季經濟錄得0.8%增長，令人關注英國經濟依然蓬勃，足以承受英倫銀行進一步加息。

　　企業消息方面，業績期尾聲公司業績好壞不一。利好消息方面，食品巨企雀巢(Nestle)公布上半年溢利上升11%，超越預測；瑞士手表制造商Swatch溢利增長24%；英國罐類容器制造商Rexam業績彪炳亦令市場喜出望外。不過，BHP Billiton的溢利增長就遜于預期，該公司在智利的銅礦工潮導致停產，令股價更加受壓。滅蟲專家Rentokil Initial業績預測令人失望，醫療軟件制造商Isoft則走勢反復，該公司宣布因可能涉及會計違規而面臨正式調查。合并市場上的大事莫過于