2006年9月1日全球金融市場周報 美國

　　United States 美國

　　US equities went into retreat last week as heightened concerns over the state of the US economy, high oil prices and geopolitical tensions saw investors become increasingly jittery. As a result, the Dow Jones fell 0.9%, while the tech-laden NASDAQ Index declined 1.1%. Worries that the US economy is heading for a 'hard landing' came to a head last week, with evidence of a sharp slowdown in the housing market. News that sales of existing homes fell 4.1% (to their lowest level since January 2004) and that sales of new homes dropped 4.3% in July provided firm evidence that the housing market is slowing. Reports from homebuilder, Toll Brothers, that its fiscal third-quarter profits had dropped 19% added to the concerns. Although the data did ease fears over further rises in interest rates, the news coupled with reports that US durable goods orders had fallen 2.4%, saw some commentators even suggest that a recession could be on the way. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and a rise in oil prices also played a part in spooking investors. Oil prices reached USD 73 a barrel after the UN rejected Iran's offer to meet for peace talks in light of the fact that the Iranian government continued to refuse to halt its uranium enrichment programme. Worries that tropical storm, Ernesto, could reach the Gulf of Mexico and disrupt oil production also supported prices, while concerns that the ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah could be broken added to investor jitters.

　　At the stock level, homebuilders and consumer stocks were the worst hit amid worries over a slowing housing market and possible US recession, while the transport sector was buffeted by a volatile week for Ford which saw the car giant announce that it is in talks with Renault-Nissan for a possible alliance, that it is cutting back production and that the Ford family could be taking the company private. The technology sector also had a difficult week, with Apple forced to recall 1.1 million laptop batteries in the US and ordered to pay USD 100 million to rival, Creative, over a patent dispute involving the iPod. A broker downgrade for eBay added to the gloom, although an upbeat outlook buoyed Advanced Micro Devices.

　　上周美股回落，有關美國經濟狀況、油價高企和地緣政治局勢緊張的隱憂加劇，令投資者感到不安。道瓊斯指數跌0.9%，偏重科技股的納斯達克指數則跌1.1%。有關美國經濟步向“硬著陸”的憂慮于上周紛紛涌現，房屋市場更有急劇放緩跡象。

二手房屋銷售下降4.1%(至2004年1月以來最低水平)，7月份新房屋銷售亦下跌4.3%，確實證明房屋市場正在放緩。房屋建筑公司Toll Brothers宣布其財年第三季溢利下降19%，令市場關注。盡管數據紓緩了進一步加息的憂慮，但有報告指美國耐用品訂單下降2.4%，部分評論員甚至認為美國可能步向衰退。地緣政治局勢持續緊張及油價上漲都令投資者擔心不已。聯合國拒絕與伊朗進行和談，理由是伊朗政府一直拒絕暫停其提煉濃縮鈾計劃，促使油價升至73美元一桶。有關熱帶風暴歐內斯托可能吹至墨西哥灣，并導致石油生產中斷的憂慮亦為油價帶來支持。與此同時，以色列與真主黨可能違反停火協議，令投資者憂心忡忡。

　　股份層面上，房屋市場放緩，美國經濟又有衰退之虞，房屋建筑公司及消費股跌幅最大。運輸股亦走勢反復，福特汽車(Ford)宣布正與雷諾日產(Renault-Nissan)磋商結盟，并正在減產，而福特家族又可能將公司私有化�？萍脊梢嗯e步維艱，蘋果計算機(Apple)被逼于美國回收110萬枚手提電腦電池，并須就涉及iPod的專利爭議而向對手Creative 支付1億美元賠償。eBay被經紀行調低評級，令氣氛雪上加霜，但Advanced Micro Devices獲調高展望則刺激市場氣氛。

 

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