2006年9月1日全球金融市場周報 日本

　　Japan 日本

　　The TOPIX fell 1.3% and Nikkei fell 1.0% as investors took profits on blue chips after the market hit a three-month high earlier last week. Technology stocks fared poorly, prompted by weakness in the US, a downgrade to Sony and news that the electronics bellwether had to recall millions of laptop batteries. Product recalls also hit the autos sector as Toyota announced that it would be delaying its latest product launch due to quality issues and a stream of product withdrawals. On the new, 2005-based consumption basket, nationwide core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, was much weaker than expected, up only 0.2% YoY in July. The downside surprise comes from the magnitude of the pull down by the base year change, which proved 0.4% point compared to the expected 0.2-0.3%. In addition, the monthly change in prices was pulled down by a substantial decline in apparel prices during the summer sales season, despite the push up by the tax hike in tobacco prices. In the old basis, July core CPI inflation remained at the same level of 0.6% in June.

　　METI's all-sector activity index edged up 0.1% MoM in June after the revised 0.1% MoM drop (from -0.2%) in May. As already known, the weakness in tertiary sector activity was totally offset by the strong manufacturing output, which is the opposite pattern from the previous month. Construction activity declined 1.4% MoM after the 0.2% decline in May, giving a slight drag to overall activity. The BoJ's real trade index, which is defined as quality-adjusted, rose to 207.3 in July from June's 188.5, topping the historical high level of 198.7 recorded in May. This was caused by the combination of pick up in real exports (the current index level is 2.2% higher than 2Q average) and decline in real imports (the current index level is 2.0% lower than 2Q average) Based on strong domestic demand and low inventories, we see industrial production will remain solid in coming months, and reacceleration in real exports, which is consistent with the surge in July PMI export orders and still-solid foreign machinery orders, could reinforce it. However, it will take several months to confirm that the acceleration in July reflects the underlying trend in real exports.

　　上周初日股創三個月新高后，有投資者將藍籌股吐現獲利，東京第一市場指數收市跌1.3%，日經指數則跌1.0%。美股偏軟、新力(Sony)評級下調，并須回收數百萬枚手提電腦電池，導致科技股表現不濟。汽車股亦受產品回收問題拖累，豐田(Toyota)宣布因質素問題以及產品回收事故頻生而押后推出新產品。當局新訂以2005年為基數、不計新鮮食品的全國核心消費物價遠較預期疲弱，7月份與去年同期比較的升幅只有0.2%。更改基準年份令指數下調多達0.4%，比預期的0.2至0.3%嚴重。此外，盡管當局增收煙草稅，但由于夏季減價期間成衣價格大幅下降，拖低了每月物價變動。若按舊基準計算，7月份核心消費物價指數通脹仍為0.6%，與6月份相同。經濟產業省的所有范疇活動指數5月份經修訂下跌0.1%(原先為-0.2%)，6月份則升0.1%。跟上月模式迥然不同，第三產業活動的弱勢已被強勁制造業產出抵銷。建造業則繼5月份下降0.2%后，6月份再跌1.4%，對整體活動造成輕微拖累。

　　日本央行實質貿易指數由6月份的188.5上升至7月份的207.3，超越5月份錄得的歷年高位198.7，原因是實質出口回升(現水平指數為2.2%，高于第二季的平均數)，而實質入口又見下跌(現水平指數為2.0%，較第二季平均數為低)。基于內需殷切而存貨不多，未來數月的工業生產料將維持穩健。另外，實質出口增長重新加快，和7月份采購經理指數出口訂單急升和外國機器訂單維持穩定的情況吻合。雖然如此，有關7月份增長加速是否反映實質出口的基本趨勢，仍需要數個月才能夠確定。