文/新浪財經意見領袖專欄機構 全球財富管理論壇

　　摩根資產與財富管理公司CEO Mary Callahan Erdoes女士近日出席全球財富管理論壇上海蘇河灣峰會時，就全球投資組合及資本市場增長趨勢發表了演講。

　　作為全球最大且歷史悠久的跨國金融集團之一，摩根大通早在一個世紀前就與中國結緣。適逢壬寅虎年新春，Erdoes女士對2022年的社會、經濟及金融政策趨勢做了八點總結，在理性面對客觀變化的同時，她鼓舞市場參與者如“虎”般充滿生機和活力。具體而言，這八個方面主要涉及了對疫情的大方向判斷、流動性釋放特征、通脹壓力、ESG及能源轉型、另類投資標的配置、YUC風險及相關指數泡沫預警、投資組合跨境流動，以及黑天鵝事件的不可預測。雖然篇幅簡短，但句句凝練，基于Erdoes女士長達二十五年的財富管理經驗，投資者可以通過她的八點深度思考，對2022年及今后的市場表現見微知著。

　　以下為演講全文。

　　在2022年全球財富管理論壇

　　上海蘇河灣峰會上的演講

　　隨著2021年進入尾聲，摩根大通在中國開展業務已超過百年，我們為此感到自豪。我們在過去的一個世紀里深耕中國業務，也非常期待下一個百年的到來。1921年，我們在中國展開業務，當時摩根大通的前身Equitable Eastern Banking Corporation在上海設立了第一家分行，為本地和外國機構客戶提供金融服務。

　　一個世紀以來，從大衛?洛克菲勒多次造訪，到今天杰米?戴蒙在這里的數次投資，設立合資企業，我們對能一直幫助世界各地的客戶投資中國感到十分自豪，并非常感謝許多委托我們拓展海外市場的中國客戶。感謝所有的業務合作伙伴，我們期待在未來的日子里能繼續幫助中國境內外的客戶管理寶貴資產并實現長期的資產增值。

　　在虎年到來之際，我們希望這一年如“虎”般充滿生機和活力，同時也給金融業注入生命力。

　　“八”這個數字象征吉祥，因此，我打算對2022年的市場作出八點總結，供所有投資者參考：

　　一、疫情。如果以紐約的現狀為例，新冠病毒有望會像當年的“非典”一樣很快消失。我們經歷確診人數的激增，望不到頭的核酸檢測隊伍，空空如也的藥房貨架。但目前情況已有所好轉，對于已經接種疫苗的人而言，癥狀大多較輕。因此，如果倫敦和紐約繼續這種向好的趨勢，短期內全球疫情都有望將會好轉。

　　二、流動性。為應對這場全球疫情以及幫助市場，全球各主要央行向市場注入了大量流動性。此前的全球金融危機為我們留下的經驗表明，世界需要大量且快速的流動性來幫助修復金融市場的創傷。所以，這次當世界陷入封鎖狀態時，各國央行采用了同樣的策略。每個交易日提供260億美元的流動性，換言之，每個交易日的流動性是2008年應對金融危機時的兩倍，且時間縮短了一半。這也使得央行資產負債表翻了四倍，而大量的流動性使得物價飛漲。此外，2021的并購總額也有史以來首次超過了6.5萬億美元，投資者將更多的資金投入到股票市場，超過了過去二十年的累計總額。如今，美國消費者有2萬億美元的超額儲蓄閑置，等待消費或投資。考慮到這一點，美國標普500指數市盈率為21倍，遠高于17倍的歷史平均水平也就不足為奇了。

　　三、通貨膨脹。通貨膨脹狀況也并不樂觀。更高的利率意味著以現在的價格計算的未來收益不如以往。供應鏈問題也尚未解決。截至2021年12月16日，共有94艘集裝箱船積壓在洛杉磯和長灘的港口。美國卡車司機去年在排隊等待上浪費的時間累計長達50年。此外，市場認為通貨膨脹不再只是“暫時性的”。2021年12月，超過150萬名工人因病缺崗，250萬人因未接種疫苗而缺崗（占全部成年人口的1%），500萬人因需照顧未上學或沒有日托的兒童缺崗。歸根結底，財務預期需要重新調整。

　　四、ESG。現在的投資者用環境（E）、社會（S）和治理（G）這三個字母來表達在投資的同時造福社會的愿景。但對于ESG，是仁者見仁，智者見智，因為世界上每個人對造福社會的看法都不盡相同，沒有一個放之四海皆準的原則。比如有些人可能想改變化石燃料行業。我們需要認識到，目前社會運作方式下，還沒有可行的替代品來快速推行去化石燃料。能源結構快速變革會帶來短期壓力，例如當前歐洲天然氣價格比一年前要高出四倍。當前用于改善能源結構的投資支出（即資本支出）比峰值下降了75%，因此，我們需要以一種更明智的方式推動能源結構變革。

　　五、另類投資。如果非必須，就不要為所有資產都支付流動性溢價。對于不需要流動性的投資者，另類投資具有巨大的價值，更直觀來說，基礎設施ETF的收益率約為2.5%，而非流動性ETF的收益率為10%。基礎設施非常重要。目前美國沒有任何港口排進世界前50名，因此這方面存在較多投資機會。

　　六、YUC（年輕的尚未盈利公司）。需要小心這類標的。我們用CRSP美國總市場指數代表美國可投資股票池總量，而YUC目前在該指數中約占3.5%。這是自本世紀初以來的最高比例。盡管從1980年至2019年期間，平均3年期買入并持有不盈利公司的首次公開發行股票的回報率是-17%。另一個令人震驚的數據是，創新類ETF將80%的投資組合配置在此類未盈利公司，其投資回報比去年峰值時下降了近50%，雖然自2020年1月以來，這些ETF的表現仍比標普500指數高出20%以上。在經歷了30年的牛市之后，遠期利潤越來越容易受到更高貼現率的影響，在市場重新估值時，這將給投資者帶來負面沖擊。

　　七、帶有偏向性的投資組合。投資偏向本土標的這一情況從未如此盛行。例如，美國股市占全球股市的一半以上，但整個美國股市近四分之三為美國人持有。此外，日本股市的77%由日本投資者持有，盡管日本市場僅占全球基準的6%。尤其是在當前全球化受到壓力的情況下，我們更應嘗試消除投資組合中的偏向，并確保投資于世界各地的各個增長領域，而不僅僅是那些每天都能“看見”的熟悉領域。

　　八、黑天鵝事件。基于二十五年的財富管理經驗，我唯一能確定的是，未來“黑天鵝”事件不太可能是當下我們正熱議的那些話題，而更可能是從某些意外情況衍生而來。所以請謹記，唯一“聰明”的做法是對我們的投資組合進行壓力測試，應對“已知的未知風險”以及“未知的未知風險”。

　　這些就是我的“吉祥八談”，希望通過這八個想法，幫我們做好投資組合方面的準備，以迎接前路的坎坷，同時抓住未來的增長機會。

　　Speech at GAMF 2022 Shanghai Summit

　　As we close the year of 2021， we are proud to have crossed over the 100 year mark for JPMC‘s presence in China．  Our firm has proudly done business in China for the past century and we look forward to many more centuries to come．  We are proud to have established our business in China in 1921， when the predecessor firm of J． P． Morgan， Equitable Eastern Banking Corporation， established its first branch in Shanghai， providing financial services to local and foreign institutional clients．  

　　And for these last 100 years， from the many visits of David Rockefeller to today‘s countless investments and Joint Ventures in the region by Jamie Dimon， we are proud to continue to help our clients from around the world invest into China and tremendously grateful for the many Chinese clients who entrust us to help them access other parts of the world． We thank you all for this business partnership and we look forward to continuing to help clients inside and outside of China to help manage their hard earned assets for long term income and prosperity， for many years to come．

　　As we welcome the year of the Tiger， we hope for a year of vigor and vitality， something the tiger symbolizes． And we hope that translates to financial vigor and vitality as well．

　　In the spirit of the lucky number 8， I have eight points for the year of 2022 in the markets that I think all investors should keep at the forefront of their minds：

　　1． THE PANDEMIC．  If New York City is any sign， COVID is likely to go the way of SARs， hopefully soon． We‘ve had a surge， with endlessly long testing lines and empty pharmacy shelves．  But this week already feels better and for the vaccinated it has been mostly mild．  So If the trends in London and New York City continue， we will be on a better trend， globally， in a short period of time． Let’s all hope that is case！

　　2． LIQUIDITY．  In response to the global pandemic， major Central Banks around the world have flooded the markets with liquidity to help support those markets． Having a playbook from The Global Financial Crisis， the world required a lot of liquidity and quickly， to help cure the wounds of the damage from financial markets， and it worked．  So when the world went into lockdown， the central banks used that playbook． They provided $26 billion of liquidity every trading day， in other words， that is twice as much liquidity and in half the amount of time as the 2008 crisis． As such， central banks‘ balance sheets have grown 4x， and that liquidity makes all sorts of things increase in price．  Adding to that， 2021 also had over $6.5 trillion in M&A value （the most ever） and investors put more money into the equity markets than the last 20 years， cumulatively． Today US Consumers have $2 trillion in excess savings waiting on the sidelines ready to be spent or invested． With this in mind， it should come as no surprise that the S&P 500 forward P/E is at 21x when the historical average has been less than 17x．

　　3． INFLATION． Inflation doesn‘t make everything look good． Higher interest rates mean future earnings in today’s terms don‘t look as good as they did moments before．  Supply chain issues are not unclogged yet． As of December 16th， there were 94 containerships loitering in the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports． U.S． truckers collectively wasted what amounted to FIFTY years waiting in lines last year． Additionally， “transitory” is a word that is fading from fame． In December， over 1.5 million workers were not at work due to illness， 2.5 million due to vaccine requirements （that is 1% of all adults） and 5 million people because they were caring for children not in school or daycare． Ultimately， financial expectations need to be readjusted． 

　　4． ESG． Today‘s investors use the letters E-S-G to express the desire to do good while investing． But ESG is personal because everyone’s version of doing good in the world can be different． No one size fits all． Some may want to change the fossil fuel industry． We just have to realize that the world may not be ready for the speed of that withdrawal as there are not viable replacements for the way we work today．  A quick retreat from today‘s energy sources is leading to short term pressure， Europe， as an example， is experiencing natural gas prices running 4x higher than where they were just a year ago．  And the investments to change （i.e． Capex） is down 75% from peak．  So， we need to get to a better place but in a smart way． 

　　5．  ALTERNATIVES． Don‘t pay a liquidity premium for 100% of your assets if you don’t need to．  Alternatives have tremendous value if you don‘t need liquidity， to bring this to life for you， the yield on the infrastructure ETF is approximately 2.5% versus 10% for the illiquid version． I mention infrastructure because， even though it appears very boring， it is very important． Not one U.S． port ranks in the top 50 globally， demonstrating room for improvement and investment．

　　6． YUCs （Young Unprofitable Companies）． Be careful． YUCs currently make up about 3.5% of the CRSP US Total market index， which we use as a proxy for the total US investable universe． This is the highest percentage since the early 2000s， despite the fact that between 1980 and 2019， the average 3-year buy and hold return for unprofitable IPO companies is -17.0%． Another startling stat is that Innovation ETFs have 80% of their portfolios allocated to unprofitable companies． Performance is down almost 50% from last year‘s peak， nevertheless， these ETFs have still outperformed the S&P 500 by over 20% since January 2020．  After a 30-year bull market， distant profits are increasingly more susceptible to higher discount rates and it can hurt when revalued．

　　7． BIASED PORTFOLIOS． Home country bias has never been more prevalent． For example， the U.S． equity market is more than half of the global stock market， yet nearly three-fourths of the entire U.S． equity market is owned by Americans． In addition， 77% of the Japanese equity market is owned by Japanese investors， even though the market is only 6% of a global benchmark． Try to fight against that bias in your portfolio． Be sure you are investing on all the areas of growth around the world， not just the ones you can “see” every day， especially since “exploring the world” has been muted．

　　8． BLACK SWAN． After 25 years of managing money， the only thing I can assure you is that tomorrow‘s “black swan” event is unlikely to be anything the world is talking about， and more likely to be a derivative of something we haven’t expected． So just remember the only “SMART” thing to do is to stress test your portfolio for the “known unknowns” but also the “Unknown unknowns．” 

　　These are my “LUCKY 8”， eight thoughts for the portfolios to be ready for bumps in the road but also many growth opportunities to come in the future．

　　(本文作者介紹：全球財富管理論壇是在中國金融業對外開放背景下，由中國財富管理50人論壇和孫冶方經濟科學基金會共同發起成立的全球性、學術性、中立的智庫組織，致力于促進資產管理與財富管理領域的全球對話，推動資產管理與財富管理行業的健康發展。)