2006年9月29日全球金融市場(chǎng)周報(bào) 新興市場(chǎng)

 

　　Global Emerging Markets 環(huán)球新興市場(chǎng)

　　Returns from stock markets in the developing world were mixed, leaving the MSCI Emerging Markets Index virtually unchanged. In Latin America, Mexico's IPC rebounded strongly to finish 3.6% higher as the country continued to applaud the news that conservative candidate Felipe Calderon had been named president after weeks of uncertainty. News that industrial production had risen 5.5% in July also proved supportive. Other major markets in the region, however, did not perform so well. Brazils BOVESPA dropped 1.1% as ratings agency Standard & Poor's reiterated its view that an upgrade to the country's credit rating will depend on the government's ability to reduce the budget deficit (Brazil is the most indebted emerging market) and spur economic growth. Argentina's MERVAL also struggled over the week (finishing 0.3% lower) on news that second-quarter growth had slowed to 7.9% and that the government sees the pace of growth weakening to 4% in 2007.

　　In Central and Eastern Europe, Hungary's BUX led the way with a rise of 4.2%. The Czech PX 50 only managed a gain of 0.2%r, while Poland's WIG also underperformed (up 0.6%) after the IMF stated that the country's growth rate will probably slow to 4.5% from 5%in 2007. Turkey's ISE National 100 climbed 2.1% amid news that the country had grown by 7.5% in the second quarter. However, Russia's RTS fell 2.5% due to reports that a key central banker had been shot.

　　上周已發(fā)展市場(chǎng)回報(bào)參差，

摩根士丹利新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)則大致持平。拉丁美洲方面，墨西哥保守派候選人就任總統(tǒng)，結(jié)束多個(gè)星期的不明朗局面，股市強(qiáng)力反彈，高收3.6%。7月份工業(yè)生產(chǎn)上升5.5%亦具支持作用。不過，其它拉丁美洲主要市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)就乏善可陳。巴西股市跌1.1%，評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾重申，巴西能否獲調(diào)高信用評(píng)級(jí)，乃視乎巴西政府能否削減預(yù)算赤字(巴西是負(fù)債最沉重的新興市場(chǎng))和刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。阿根廷第二季增長(zhǎng)減慢至7.9%，政府又預(yù)計(jì)明年增長(zhǎng)會(huì)降至4%，上周阿根廷股市亦低收0.3%。

　　中歐及東歐方面，則以匈牙利上升4.2%領(lǐng)先。捷克股市則微升0.2%。國(guó)際

貨幣基金組織表示明年波蘭增長(zhǎng)率可能減慢至4.5%，以致波蘭股市亦表現(xiàn)欠佳，升0.6%。土耳其第二季經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)達(dá)7.5%，刺激股市升2.1%。然而，俄羅斯股市卻因一名央行要員被槍擊而下跌2.5%。

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