2006年9月29日全球金融市場周報(bào) 日本

　　Japan 日本

　　TOPIX ended 1.6% lower, undermined by concerns over the outlook for the domestic economy after data revealed a sharp slowdown in private machinery orders in June. Japanese investors were further worried by signs that domestic demand may also be waning, as domestic consumer sentiment fell sharply in July. The ESRI's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly declined further to 47.6 in August, from 48.6 in July. Ratio of respondents, expecting a rise in prices in the next 12months, rose substantial 8.7points to 69.8% in August, while respondents who expect a fall in prices continued to decline to 3.0% from 3.9% in July. This can be a major reason of worsening sentiment.

　　Domestic corporate goods prices rose 3.4% YoY in August, keeping the highest growth in 25 years recorded in July. Final goods CGPI continued monthly rise by 0.1% MoM after the July's strong 0.3%, which partly reflects the one-off tax hike for tobacco products. As a result, final goods prices maintained a flat YoY growth for a 2nd straight month, following the declines in three months through June. Meanwhile, intermediate goods prices have been elevated, up 5.7% YoY led by petroleum products and non-ferrous metals, while import prices rose 18.5% YoY, driven by petroleum and metals. Although the final goods CGPI, which has close correlation with core goods CPI, has not been on clear uptrend, the latest surveys suggest a reviving firms' pricing power. We believe that firms will eventually raise price tags in response to the rise in input prices.

　　Atsushi Mizuno, BoJ board member, stated that the market should not forget that the BoJ will continue to make a fine tuning of interest rates, as long as the economy and prices are in line with the BoJ's expectation, shown in April Outlook report. Mizuno also emphasized that the BoJ is forward looking in implementing monetary policy, reiterating Fukui's comments that the BoJ's policy is not affected by the rebasing of CPI. He said that the new trend of CPI is more important, than the current level of CPI, encouraging the market participants to discuss how the trend of the core CPI looks like.

　　6月份私人機(jī)器訂單銳減，國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景備受關(guān)注，東京第一市場指數(shù)低收1.6%。7月份國內(nèi)消費(fèi)意欲急跌，內(nèi)需呈現(xiàn)減弱跡象，令日本投資者更感憂盧。8月份消費(fèi)意欲指數(shù)進(jìn)一步下降。月內(nèi)受訪者當(dāng)中，預(yù)計(jì)未來12月價(jià)格上升的比例大幅增加8.7%至69.8%，預(yù)計(jì)物價(jià)下跌的比例則繼續(xù)減少，是投資意欲低迷的主要原因。

　　8月份國內(nèi)企業(yè)商品價(jià)格指數(shù)上升3.4%，維持7月份所錄得25年來最高增長。繼7月份大幅上升0.3%后，最終商品指數(shù)繼續(xù)較上月升0.1%，部分原因在于當(dāng)局一次過提高煙草產(chǎn)品稅項(xiàng)。與去年同期比較，最終商品價(jià)格于截至6月份連跌三月后，連續(xù)第二個(gè)月維持平穩(wěn)增長。與此同時(shí)，中間貨品價(jià)格則有所上升，在石油產(chǎn)品及有色金屬帶動下較去年同期上漲5.7%，入口價(jià)格則升18.5%。盡管與核心商品消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)亦步亦趨的最終商品企業(yè)商品價(jià)格指數(shù)并非明顯走勢向上，但最近調(diào)查卻顯示企業(yè)訂價(jià)能力有所回升。相信企業(yè)最終可因應(yīng)投入價(jià)格上漲而提高售價(jià)。

　　日本央行委員水野溫氏(Atsushi Mizuno)表示，只要經(jīng)濟(jì)和物價(jià)表現(xiàn)符合日本央行預(yù)期，日本央行仍會繼續(xù)調(diào)整利率。水野并強(qiáng)調(diào)，日本央行在推動貨幣政策時(shí)乃采取前瞻性方針，亦重申日本央行政策不受重訂消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)基數(shù)影響。水野表示，消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)趨勢比現(xiàn)水平更為重要。