2006年9月29日全球金融市場(chǎng)周報(bào) 美國

 

　　United States 美國

　　US equities rebounded last week as signs of moderating inflation, encouraging data on the US economy and weak oil prices boosted investor confidence. The tech-laden NASDAQ surged 3.2% after a broker upgrade to the semiconductor sector, while the Dow Jones rose 1.4%, inching closer to its all-time high. A steep slide in oil prices provided the basis for a positive week. News that Iran had agreed to suspend its uranium enrichment programme, a calm hurricane season and relatively high inventory levels depressed prices, while reports that OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the Energy Information Administration had all cut their 2006 and 2007 energy demand forecasts accelerated the decline. Reports that US retail sales had risen 0.2% in August (versus consensus forecasts of a 0.1% decline) raised hopes that consumers are remaining resilient despite increased uncertainty over the economy, a slowing housing market and rising interest rates. This news coupled with a strengthening in the New York Fed's manufacturing index, and a rise in the University of Michigan's preliminary estimate for consumer confidence in September raised hopes that the economy will slow but not suffer a hard landing. But, the news, coupled with reports of a larger than expected rise in August import prices, did ignite fears that interest rates may have to rise again to stem an acceleration in inflation. A modest rise of 0.2% in consumer prices during August however helped dampen worries over inflationary pressures.

　　The week saw the beginning of the third-quarter reporting season. Among those announcing, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns all reported strong results. Elsewhere, McDonalds saw a 6% rise in August sales. Other corporate news however was not so supportive. On the NASDAQ, Dell announced that it would be postponing the release of its second-quarter results and suspending its share buyback programme due to an accounting probe. Hewlett-Packard remained in the limelight following reports that its chairwoman had resigned and that several officials would be indicted amid allegations that illegal methods had been used to acquire personal information from board members during an investigation into boardroom leaks. On the Dow, the long awaited restructuring plan from Ford which will see the car giant lay off one third of its salaried workforce and close some manufacturing plants was seen as falling short of what is needed to halt the automaker's financial losses and remedy its declining position in the autos industry.

　　美國通脹有放緩之勢(shì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)令人鼓舞及油價(jià)偏軟，都有助刺激投資信心，推動(dòng)上周美股反彈。

半導(dǎo)體股獲經(jīng)紀(jì)行調(diào)高評(píng)級(jí)，偏重科技股的納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)急漲3.2%。道瓊斯指數(shù)則升1.4%，逼近歷年高位。油價(jià)急挫為上周造就樂觀基礎(chǔ)。伊朗同意暫停提煉濃縮鈾計(jì)劃，颶風(fēng)季節(jié)情況平靜，加上庫存相對(duì)充裕，都令油價(jià)受壓，石油出口國組織、國際

能源機(jī)構(gòu)與能源情報(bào)局都調(diào)低今明兩年的能源需求預(yù)測(cè)，令油價(jià)跌勢(shì)加速。

　　8月份零售銷售額上升0.2%，超出一般預(yù)期，令市場(chǎng)憧憬消費(fèi)者在經(jīng)濟(jì)更趨不明朗、房屋市道放緩及息口上升情況下依然表現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健。加上紐約聯(lián)儲(chǔ)局制造業(yè)指數(shù)和麥歇根大學(xué)9月份消費(fèi)信心初步估計(jì)上升，令市場(chǎng)憧憬經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)放緩，但不致硬著陸。不過，受上述消息影響，8月份入口價(jià)格升幅又超出預(yù)期，市場(chǎng)再度擔(dān)心聯(lián)儲(chǔ)局可能會(huì)再加息以防止通脹加速。8月份消費(fèi)物價(jià)只是微升0.2%，有助壓抑通脹壓力隱憂。

　　第三季業(yè)績(jī)期于上周揭開序幕。宣布業(yè)績(jī)公司當(dāng)中，高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)、雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)和貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns)都錄得驕人業(yè)績(jī)。其它方面，麥當(dāng)勞(McDonalds)8月份銷售額亦上升6%。不過，其它公司消息就并非如此樂觀。納指方面，戴爾計(jì)算機(jī)(Dell)因當(dāng)局對(duì)其賬目展開調(diào)查而宣布押后公布第二季業(yè)績(jī)，并暫停其股份回購計(jì)劃。惠普(Hewlett-Packard)女主席辭職，若干要員又因涉及以非法手段取得個(gè)人資料而被控，令該公司備受關(guān)注。道指方面，福特汽車(Ford)終于公布重組計(jì)劃，將會(huì)裁減三分一人手，并關(guān)閉部分超出需要的制造廠房，以減少財(cái)政虧損，挽救在汽車業(yè)內(nèi)江河日下的地位。

 

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