特斯拉汽車財報解讀：業績良好前景可期
新浪財經訊 北京時間8月8日晚間消息，特斯拉汽車(TSLA)周二晚發布了季報，多數業績數字達到或好于預期，投資者對此予以充分肯定，推動特斯拉的股票在周二盤后大漲12%。下面略微細致地觀察一下特斯拉的最新財報。
本文為英文原文節譯，完整英文版本附后供投資者參考。
特斯拉的季營收為4.01億美元，低于前一季度的5.55億美元，應注意的是，特斯拉因租賃項目擁有1.46億美元遞延營收，如果包括這一數字，特斯拉的營收將大幅增至5.48億美元。
考察非GAAP(美國通用會計準則)方面的數字，特斯拉的財報更好。如計入S車型的1934萬美元遞延毛利，特斯拉的毛利將從1億美元增至1.2億美元。若不計股票薪酬，特斯拉毛利為1.2089億美元。不僅如此，若不計股票薪酬和提前償還能源部的貸款，特斯拉凈盈利2628萬美元。最后，特斯拉每股凈利潤為20美分，超過前一財季的12美分，更好于上年同期的每股虧損89美分。
更為重要的是，特斯拉今年余下時間內的前景令人鼓舞。特斯拉預計將提高生產速度，將某些汽車銷往歐洲。預計歐洲市場銷售的汽車毛利率更高，特斯拉預計85千瓦時版的汽車需求旺盛，這應有利于維持特斯拉的高毛利率。歐洲市場的加入，特斯拉汽車的平均售價應該會上漲，這是因為鑒于歐洲的能源成本比北美要高，節能車在歐洲往往能賣出更高價格。
特斯拉預計本季度交付了略超過5千輛的S型車，截至2013年底全球范圍內將交付2.1萬輛。特斯拉預計S型車的利潤率將上漲，但ZEV(零排放汽車)貸款營收將下降，預計這將導致下一季度毛利率在20-23%之間。至今年底時，特斯拉不計ZEV信貸的毛利率應會達到25%，將達成公司此前公布的預定目標。
特斯拉預計未來兩個季度現金流將為正，這對投資者來說是一個好消息。特斯拉宣布需求持續增長但公司的任何業績數字沒有被犧牲值得關注。此外，特斯拉宣布如果國際市場需求持續強勁，2014年有望售出4萬輛以上的汽車。
總的來說，特斯拉剛過去的財季表現不錯，管理層對未來非常樂觀。特斯拉購買更多土地、增加研發投資和重視擴張都令人欣慰。另一方面，大部分的近期和中期內成功已在當前股價中得到體現。但是，這并不意味著這只股票不會進一步上漲。特斯拉擁有很多有信心的投資者，空頭比例也較高。目前看來導致該股下跌的推動因素不太多，因為需要大量賣家或空頭才能導致該股下跌，而多數賣家已出售，多數空頭已建倉。未來幾個季度中特斯拉往何處去，及整個局勢將如何發展令人關注。我關注的一件事情是量化寬松的削減，因為一旦市場因恐懼而大幅下跌，前期漲勢強勁的股票將是首先受難者之一。未來幾個月中，投資特斯拉似乎不是濫賭。(立悟/編譯)
Tesla: Another Good Quarter, Encouraging Outlook
On Tuesday evening, Tesla (TSLA) announced its quarterly earnings, and most of the company's figures were either in-line or better than expectations. Investors cheered by buying up more shares of the company, driving the share price up by as much as 12% in the after-hours. Let's take a look at Tesla's last quarter。
The company generated $401 million in revenues, up from $22 million generated in the same quarter last year, but down from the $555 million generated in the previous quarter. Keep in mind that Tesla has $146 million in deferred revenues due to its lease program and when we include this number, the revenues jump to $548 million. The gross profit in the quarter was $100.48 million, indicating a gross margin of 24.69% not excluding the ZEV credits. The company posted an operating loss of $11.79 million due to itemized expenditures of $52 million in research and development and $60 million in selling, general and administrative (these expenses include $19.26 million of stock-based-compensations)。
For the quarter, Tesla reported a net loss of $30.5 million. The company reported a negative cash flow of $38.19 million in operations, $27.17 million in investing activities and it generated $597 million from financial activities such as the secondary public offering it held during the quarter. As a result, Tesla currently has $749 million in cash and $578 million in long term debt。
In non-GAAP financials, we are looking at a nicer picture. If we include the $19.34 million of deferred gross profit due to leasing of Model S, the company's gross profit jumps from $100 million to $120 million. Excluding stock based compensations, the company's gross profit was $120.89 million for the quarter. Furthermore, excluding stock based compensations and the early extinguishment of the Department of Energy loans, the company posted a net profit of $26.28 million. Finally, the company's net income per share was 20 cents, up from 12 cents in the last quarter and a loss of 89 cents in the same quarter a year ago。
More importantly, Tesla's outlook for the rest of the year was pretty encouraging. The company expects to increase its production rate further and move some cars to Europe to sell them there. European cars are expected to have higher margins and the company expects a strong demand for its 85 kWh cars, which should keep the margins high. With the addition of European markets, the average sale price should go higher because energy-efficient cars tend to sell for higher prices in Europe due to higher energy costs in the continent compared to North America. Tesla expects to deliver a little more than 5,000 Model S cars this quarter and 21,000 cars globally by the end of 2013. Moving forward, the company expects higher margins on the cars sold but lower ZEV credit revenue, which should move its gross margin to 20-23% range for the next quarter. Towards the end of the year, the gross margins excluding ZEV credits should reach 25%， which is in-line with the previously announced target of the company。
The company expects to spend additional capital on growth measures, such as the purchase of additional land that was announced last month, increased research and development expenses, new retail stores, service centers and Supercharger locations. These are one-time investments that should pay themselves off in the following years as long as the company is profitable. The next 2 quarters, the company expects to be cash flow positive which is nice to hear. The company announced a "growing demand" without specifying any numbers which is interesting. On the other hand, the company announced that it could sell more than 40,000 cars in 2014 if the demand continues to be strong in the international markets。
Tesla generally had a decent quarter and the management seems very optimistic about the future. I like the fact that it is buying additional land, ramping up research and development investments and getting serious about expanding. On the other hand, most of the short and medium term success is already priced in by the investors. Of course, this doesn't mean that the stock price can't go up further. Tesla has a lot of faithful investors and a high rate of short interest. At this point, there don't seem to be many catalysts to the downside because it takes a large number of sellers or shorters to bring a company's share price down, and most sellers already sold and most shorters already shorted at this point. It will be interesting to see where Tesla goes and how the story develops in the following quarters. One thing I would watch out for is tapering of the quantitative easing because when the market goes down strongly based on fear, the high-flyers are first ones to suffer. For the next few months, Tesla doesn't sound like a bad bet。
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