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中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春
上周市場在長時間盤整后在周三忽然爆發出強大的上升動力，普漲格局再度激發了市場人氣，但周四周五的震蕩回調也顯示市場對突如其來的迅猛上漲仍然信心不足，在趨勢選擇上仍存猶豫。而從基金的角度看，我們仍然保持一貫的看法，即基金對市場底部的認識較為一致，但對于后市走向仍然存有分歧。總體上基金操作并未太受市場波動影響，而是按
部就班地執行各自策略。在上周不少新基金繼續顯示為增持，也有部分老基金顯示減持。值得注意的是部分前期做空的基金也顯示出一定增倉跡象，對后市看法回暖的可能性較大。
基金倉位測算顯示，上周五64只開放式基金加權平均倉位為60.80%，與前周相比微幅上升了0.4%；封閉式基金方面，上周五加權平均倉位為65.52%，比前周的66.54%略有下降。從個別基金的倉位變動來看，上周仍然有部分新發基金繼續顯示增持跡象。64只開放式基金中有5只顯示為增倉，其中天治財富增長、招商先鋒等基金增持最為明顯。但在另一方面，也有相當部分的基金在進行倉位調整，景順股票、金鷹中小盤精選、大成藍籌穩健等4只基金顯示為減持。從個別基金的倉位變動上來看，還有一點值得注意的就是部分前期做空的基金也開始增加倉位，表明對后市的看法也在趨于樂觀。例如3季度顯示大幅減倉的華夏回報基金上周增持較為明顯，其后續動向值得關注。
從上周市場情況來看，周三大盤的大幅上漲略顯突然，在中國聯通(資訊 行情 論壇)這只超級大盤股的帶動下市場再度呈現普漲格局，成交量也成倍放大。但從單日大幅上漲的格局和方式來看，市場在技術性底部和政策面利好雙重作用下出現反彈的可能性較大，而趨勢是否確立則仍不明朗。從基金的角度看，基金對于底部區域認識趨同，而對未來基本面和市場走向的看法仍然存有分歧；體現在其操作上就是輕倉基金可以輕松建倉，但老基金也不輕易將倉位推至很高水平。不少市場人士將周三的大幅反彈歸因于政策面利好的累積結果，保險資金直接入市，社保資金、企業年金逐步入市，增加了市場資金供給，而暫停新股發行則控制了資金需求。僅從政策面來看4季度可能還有一系列利好出臺，但負面因素也始終存于預期，包括對高風險券商的處理行動，超級大盤股上市的壓力，新股詢價制度的推出等等。我們認為種種因素的作用使得基金對4季度市場的預期在樂觀中也存有謹慎，市場不確定性仍然較大。
表一：開放式基金倉位測算結果
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基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
天治增長 |
50.33% |
38.45% |
11.88% |
10.91% |
增持跡象 |
招商先鋒 |
64.76% |
56.33% |
8.43% |
7.43% |
荷銀精選 |
57.65% |
50.26% |
7.39% |
6.37% |
富國動態 |
58.66% |
51.43% |
7.23% |
6.21% |
巨田基礎 |
65.72% |
59.70% |
6.02% |
5.05% |
華夏回報 |
56.99% |
51.56% |
5.44% |
4.42% |
倉位穩定 |
華安創新 |
70.43% |
65.09% |
5.34% |
4.42% |
諾安平衡 |
60.60% |
55.72% |
4.88% |
3.88% |
景順內需 |
64.88% |
60.29% |
4.59% |
3.61% |
普天收益 |
71.42% |
67.43% |
3.99% |
3.11% |
海富通精選 |
71.31% |
67.37% |
3.93% |
3.04% |
華夏成長 |
68.28% |
64.78% |
3.50% |
2.58% |
國泰穩健 |
68.16% |
64.85% |
3.31% |
2.39% |
華寶策略 |
67.65% |
64.71% |
2.94% |
2.01% |
易方達策略 |
78.55% |
75.98% |
2.57% |
1.83% |
金鷹優選 |
71.46% |
68.80% |
2.66% |
1.80% |
嘉實穩健 |
64.95% |
62.36% |
2.59% |
1.64% |
富國價值 |
66.09% |
63.52% |
2.57% |
1.63% |
鵬華 50 |
61.87% |
59.28% |
2.59% |
1.61% |
海富通收益 |
43.57% |
41.12% |
2.44% |
1.46% |
長城久恒 |
66.89% |
64.62% |
2.27% |
1.35% |
博時裕富 |
76.15% |
74.12% |
2.03% |
1.25% |
景順平衡 |
53.75% |
51.71% |
2.04% |
1.02% |
長城久泰 |
75.21% |
73.54% |
1.67% |
0.88% |
天同 180 |
78.99% |
77.45% |
1.54% |
0.84% |
融通行業 |
61.88% |
60.33% |
1.54% |
0.57% |
銀河穩健 |
66.58% |
65.10% |
1.47% |
0.56% |
國泰精選 |
66.05% |
64.77% |
1.29% |
0.36% |
中融行業 |
49.67% |
48.31% |
1.36% |
0.35% |
泰信策略 |
64.97% |
63.71% |
1.27% |
0.33% |
華安 180 |
76.09% |
75.36% |
0.74% |
-0.01% |
招商平衡 |
48.51% |
47.62% |
0.89% |
-0.13% |
博時價值 |
77.50% |
76.96% |
0.54% |
-0.17% |
銀華優勢 |
66.34% |
65.87% |
0.47% |
-0.44% |
招商股票 |
68.15% |
67.73% |
0.42% |
-0.46% |
融通 100 |
76.73% |
76.55% |
0.18% |
-0.54% |
融通成長 |
39.49% |
39.25% |
0.24% |
-0.73% |
德盛穩健 |
56.54% |
56.80% |
-0.26% |
-1.26% |
南方穩健 |
66.98% |
67.50% |
-0.52% |
-1.41% |
寶盈鴻利 |
65.66% |
66.22% |
-0.55% |
-1.46% |
申萬精選 |
51.97% |
52.47% |
-0.50% |
-1.51% |
易方達 50 |
74.15% |
75.05% |
-0.91% |
-1.66% |
寶康消費 |
64.52% |
65.67% |
-1.15% |
-2.06% |
長盛動態 |
41.23% |
43.00% |
-1.77% |
-2.77% |
寶康靈活 |
54.08% |
56.05% |
-1.97% |
-2.97% |
鵬華成長 |
58.47% |
60.54% |
-2.07% |
-3.04% |
嘉實服務 |
57.05% |
59.33% |
-2.28% |
-3.26% |
易方達平穩 |
63.47% |
65.84% |
-2.37% |
-3.28% |
嘉實成長 |
68.60% |
71.46% |
-2.85% |
-3.68% |
合豐周期 |
69.70% |
72.81% |
-3.11% |
-3.90% |
長盛成長 |
66.14% |
69.21% |
-3.07% |
-3.93% |
融通新藍籌 |
64.46% |
67.55% |
-3.09% |
-3.98% |
銀河理財 |
49.29% |
52.31% |
-3.02% |
-4.03% |
廣發聚富 |
67.99% |
71.25% |
-3.26% |
-4.09% |
合豐穩定 |
62.19% |
65.36% |
-3.18% |
-4.10% |
合豐成長 |
67.74% |
71.03% |
-3.29% |
-4.12% |
國泰金鷹 |
61.71% |
64.96% |
-3.25% |
-4.18% |
德盛精選 |
55.30% |
58.85% |
-3.55% |
-4.53% |
嘉實增長 |
60.58% |
64.20% |
-3.62% |
-4.55% |
博時精選 |
62.43% |
66.30% |
-3.87% |
-4.77% |
大成價值 |
61.31% |
65.94% |
-4.63% |
-5.54% |
減持跡象 |
大成穩健 |
61.58% |
66.31% |
-4.73% |
-5.63% |
金鷹精選 |
66.71% |
71.72% |
-5.00% |
-5.82% |
景順股票 |
67.19% |
72.66% |
-5.48% |
-6.28% |
加權平均 |
60.80% |
60.40% |
0.40% |
-0.57% |
倉位穩定 |
上表數據均依據公開信息測算，參考誤差比例在5%以內，僅供參考。
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 計算截至：04-11-12 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
表二：封閉式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
基金普惠 |
65.89% |
62.59% |
-3.30% |
2.35% |
倉位穩定 |
基金裕隆 |
67.77% |
64.78% |
-2.99% |
2.07% |
基金同益 |
65.45% |
62.55% |
-2.91% |
1.96% |
基金科瑞 |
68.70% |
65.87% |
-2.83% |
1.92% |
基金安順 |
62.47% |
60.25% |
-2.22% |
1.25% |
基金景福 |
65.36% |
63.54% |
-1.82% |
0.88% |
基金普華 |
64.69% |
63.47% |
-1.22% |
0.28% |
基金銀豐 |
66.80% |
65.68% |
-1.12% |
0.21% |
基金開元 |
66.70% |
65.67% |
-1.03% |
0.12% |
基金豐和 |
69.02% |
68.72% |
-0.99% |
0.12% |
基金融鑫 |
68.01% |
67.87% |
-0.83% |
-0.05% |
基金天元 |
70.12% |
70.01% |
-0.11% |
-0.74% |
基金安瑞 |
60.03% |
60.00% |
-0.02% |
-0.95% |
基金興科 |
66.48% |
66.65% |
0.17% |
-1.07% |
基金裕陽 |
63.76% |
64.38% |
0.62% |
-1.55% |
基金普潤 |
64.16% |
64.84% |
0.68% |
-1.60% |
基金金鑫 |
66.87% |
67.69% |
0.82% |
-1.70% |
基金鴻飛 |
66.80% |
67.68% |
0.88% |
-1.77% |
基金同德 |
71.02% |
72.10% |
1.08% |
-1.89% |
基金景宏 |
69.01% |
72.10% |
1.09% |
-1.90% |
基金普豐 |
66.65% |
67.66% |
1.02% |
-1.90% |
基金久嘉 |
66.79% |
69.88% |
1.09% |
-1.94% |
基金天華 |
66.56% |
67.66% |
1.09% |
-1.98% |
基金金鼎 |
68.59% |
69.86% |
1.27% |
-2.12% |
基金景業 |
65.28% |
66.53% |
1.25% |
-2.15% |
基金鴻陽 |
70.02% |
73.53% |
1.51% |
-2.29% |
基金漢博 |
62.67% |
64.27% |
1.60% |
-2.53% |
基金科匯 |
67.02% |
68.70% |
1.68% |
-2.55% |
基金興華 |
63.57% |
65.36% |
1.79% |
-2.70% |
基金景陽 |
64.66% |
66.47% |
1.81% |
-2.71% |
基金漢鼎 |
69.73% |
71.70% |
1.97% |
-2.78% |
基金通乾 |
62.35% |
64.23% |
1.89% |
-2.82% |
基金金盛 |
65.57% |
67.56% |
1.99% |
-2.88% |
基金興安 |
66.59% |
68.66% |
2.07% |
-2.94% |
基金隆元 |
65.47% |
67.55% |
2.08% |
-2.96% |
基金景博 |
62.03% |
64.20% |
2.17% |
-3.10% |
基金興業 |
64.16% |
66.42% |
2.26% |
-3.16% |
基金安久 |
65.98% |
68.60% |
2.62% |
-3.49% |
基金同盛 |
67.01% |
69.70% |
2.69% |
-3.54% |
基金裕華 |
66.87% |
69.69% |
2.81% |
-3.67% |
基金通寶 |
64.68% |
67.47% |
2.79% |
-3.68% |
基金漢盛 |
62.47% |
65.25% |
2.78% |
-3.70% |
基金科翔 |
66.80% |
69.68% |
2.88% |
-3.73% |
基金科訊 |
65.67% |
68.57% |
2.90% |
-3.77% |
基金興和 |
63.47% |
66.35% |
2.88% |
-3.78% |
基金久富 |
68.69% |
71.69% |
3.00% |
-3.82% |
基金安信 |
60.13% |
63.01% |
2.89% |
-3.83% |
基金裕澤 |
63.25% |
66.32% |
3.08% |
-3.98% |
基金泰和 |
61.03% |
64.10% |
3.07% |
-4.00% |
基金金元 |
64.25% |
67.42% |
3.18% |
-4.06% |
基金金泰 |
64.25% |
67.42% |
3.18% |
-4.07% |
基金同智 |
63.47% |
68.35% |
4.88% |
-5.76% |
減持跡象 |
基金裕元 |
61.02% |
66.10% |
5.08% |
-5.98% |
基金漢興 |
59.88% |
65.99% |
6.11% |
-7.02% |
加權平均 |
65.52% |
66.54% |
-0.84% |
-1.74% |
倉位穩定 |
封閉式基金由于數據較少可能出現較大的個別誤差；加權平均倉位參考誤差比例在5%以內。
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 計算截至：04-11-12 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
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