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 圖一：近一季度基金平均倉位與指數走勢對比圖
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中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春
上周A股市場呈現震蕩整理格局，在股指達到高點后總體呈現持續回調局面。幾大藍籌股表現疲弱，但市場上做多氣氛仍然較強，以中集集團(資訊 行情 論壇)、中興通訊(資訊 行情 論壇)等為代表的一批中盤藍籌股頻創新高，帶動了不少市場人氣。從基金的操作來看，上周基金明確地延續了前一周的小幅增倉態勢，在多數基金倉位保持穩定的同時，部分
輕倉基金增倉顯得更為堅決，這在一定程度上印證了基金對于市場的判斷正在趨于樂觀。
基金倉位測算顯示，上周五64只開放式基金加權平均倉位達到54.60%，與前周可比的52.61%上升了2.00%，小幅增倉態勢明顯。封閉式基金的加權平均倉位由前周的，倉位增幅小于開放式基金。從個別基金的倉位變動來看，基金倉位變動仍然延續了前周的趨勢，即部分輕倉的基金增倉堅決，而多數基金則保持持倉穩定。64只開放式基金中有10只增倉跡象明顯，顯示為減持的僅有金鷹優選一只基金。其中融通行業景氣基金和中融行業基金增倉最為明顯，倉位增幅達到了10%以上；而這兩只基金在前一周同樣顯著增持，顯示出加倉態度十分堅決。此外，上周增倉的基金還有長盛動態精選、大成藍籌穩健、海富通收益、國泰金鷹等，從這一名單上不難看出輕倉的新基金仍然是增倉的主力，這與多數基金的倉位穩定形成了明顯對比。
從上周市場情況來看，大幅普漲之后的回調初步顯示出結構性分化的趨勢。以中集集團、中興通訊、伊利股份(資訊 行情 論壇)等為代表的二線藍籌股繼續表現強勁，頻頻創出股價新高。中小企業板塊仍然走強，顯示市場上做多氣氛仍然較強。而從基金的角度看，持續兩周的小幅增倉態勢發出的明顯信號是不少基金對底部的確認已經比較明確。雖然大盤股加速擴容等不利因素使得基金對后市仍然存有分歧，但在1400點以下下跌空間不大已基本得到認同。部分增倉態度堅決的基金則很可能把沖高后的震蕩回調作為年內最佳的建倉時機。從基金可能參與的板塊來看，雖然領漲的二線藍籌股表現突出，但低價藍籌股仍將是基金建倉的重點。同時，交通銀行、中國石油等超級大盤股可能在兩地市場同時上市將對股價結構產生重要影響，從國際化角度具備相對估值優勢將越來越成為基金選股時的重要依據。
表一：開放式基金倉位測算結果
基金名稱 |
本周持倉
比例估計 |
上周持倉
比例估計 |
本周持倉
比例變動 |
本周持倉
凈變動 |
增持狀態 |
融通行業 |
49.66% |
38.75% |
10.91% |
11.01% |
增持跡象 |
中融行業 |
43.58% |
33.29% |
10.30% |
10.39% |
長盛動態 |
52.00% |
43.46% |
8.55% |
8.65% |
大成穩健 |
53.54% |
46.28% |
7.27% |
7.38% |
海富通收益 |
34.60% |
28.31% |
6.29% |
6.38% |
國泰金鷹 |
60.33% |
54.36% |
5.97% |
6.08% |
嘉實穩健 |
59.61% |
53.69% |
5.92% |
6.03% |
富國價值 |
47.53% |
41.65% |
5.89% |
5.99% |
國泰穩健 |
44.09% |
38.61% |
5.48% |
5.59% |
合豐周期 |
76.30% |
71.07% |
5.23% |
5.32% |
銀河理財 |
40.48% |
35.63% |
4.85% |
4.95% |
倉位穩定 |
大成價值 |
62.01% |
57.94% |
4.07% |
4.18% |
融通新藍籌 |
73.48% |
69.52% |
3.96% |
4.06% |
博時精選 |
58.68% |
55.00% |
3.68% |
3.79% |
海富通精選 |
61.17% |
58.08% |
3.09% |
3.20% |
銀河穩健 |
62.34% |
59.41% |
2.93% |
3.03% |
天治增長 |
32.60% |
30.06% |
2.55% |
2.64% |
泰信策略 |
56.48% |
54.12% |
2.36% |
2.47% |
國泰精選 |
64.52% |
62.31% |
2.21% |
2.31% |
長城久泰 |
71.66% |
69.70% |
1.96% |
2.05% |
天同 180 |
78.28% |
76.41% |
1.87% |
1.94% |
景順內需 |
54.95% |
53.15% |
1.80% |
1.91% |
招商平衡 |
41.37% |
39.67% |
1.70% |
1.81% |
申萬精選 |
45.74% |
44.16% |
1.58% |
1.69% |
易方達 50 |
72.07% |
70.52% |
1.56% |
1.65% |
博時價值 |
80.00% |
78.47% |
1.53% |
1.61% |
寶康消費 |
67.87% |
66.46% |
1.41% |
1.51% |
合豐成長 |
59.07% |
57.78% |
1.29% |
1.39% |
招商先鋒 |
45.48% |
44.24% |
1.24% |
1.35% |
嘉實增長 |
58.46% |
57.25% |
1.21% |
1.32% |
景順股票 |
68.24% |
67.03% |
1.22% |
1.32% |
融通 100 |
73.28% |
72.06% |
1.21% |
1.30% |
寶康靈活 |
69.41% |
68.21% |
1.20% |
1.30% |
德盛穩健 |
54.52% |
53.38% |
1.14% |
1.24% |
易方達策略 |
66.57% |
65.47% |
1.10% |
1.20% |
博時裕富 |
75.52% |
74.56% |
0.96% |
1.04% |
德盛精選 |
33.89% |
33.00% |
0.89% |
0.98% |
華安 180 |
77.19% |
76.30% |
0.90% |
0.98% |
廣發聚富 |
63.73% |
62.92% |
0.81% |
0.91% |
南方穩健 |
65.13% |
64.52% |
0.61% |
0.71% |
華寶策略 |
60.90% |
60.33% |
0.58% |
0.68% |
景順平衡 |
39.83% |
39.31% |
0.51% |
0.62% |
嘉實服務 |
56.43% |
56.06% |
0.37% |
0.48% |
寶盈鴻利 |
68.76% |
68.41% |
0.34% |
0.44% |
鵬華 50 |
50.11% |
49.99% |
0.11% |
0.22% |
諾安平衡 |
41.27% |
41.40% |
-0.12% |
-0.02% |
招商股票 |
60.16% |
60.45% |
-0.29% |
-0.18% |
合豐穩定 |
73.47% |
73.81% |
-0.34% |
-0.25% |
巨田基礎 |
49.73% |
50.15% |
-0.42% |
-0.31% |
荷銀精選 |
41.76% |
42.31% |
-0.55% |
-0.44% |
長盛成長 |
69.45% |
70.24% |
-0.78% |
-0.69% |
普天收益 |
63.55% |
64.59% |
-1.04% |
-0.94% |
銀華優勢 |
50.26% |
51.35% |
-1.09% |
-0.98% |
長城久恒 |
53.21% |
54.48% |
-1.27% |
-1.16% |
融通成長 |
33.16% |
34.58% |
-1.42% |
-1.32% |
富國動態 |
59.89% |
61.36% |
-1.47% |
-1.36% |
鵬華成長 |
67.69% |
69.15% |
-1.46% |
-1.37% |
華夏成長 |
57.83% |
59.47% |
-1.64% |
-1.54% |
金鷹精選 |
62.60% |
64.30% |
-1.70% |
-1.60% |
易方達平穩 |
63.04% |
65.22% |
-2.18% |
-2.08% |
華安創新 |
62.64% |
65.59% |
-2.94% |
-2.85% |
嘉實成長 |
68.10% |
71.58% |
-3.49% |
-3.40% |
華夏回報 |
51.49% |
56.52% |
-5.03% |
-4.92% |
金鷹優選 |
60.59% |
66.09% |
-5.49% |
-5.39% |
減持跡象 |
加權平均 |
54.60% |
52.61% |
2.00% |
2.11% |
倉位穩定 |
*上表數據均依據公開信息測算，參考誤差比例在5%以內，僅供參考
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春 數據截至：04-10-08 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
表二：封閉式基金倉位測算結果
基金名稱 |
本周持倉
比例估計 |
上周持倉
比例估計 |
本周持倉
比例變動 |
本周持倉
凈變動 |
增持狀態 |
基金普惠 |
67.42% |
64.23% |
3.19% |
3.29% |
倉位穩定 |
基金裕陽 |
66.31% |
63.12% |
3.19% |
3.29% |
基金普潤 |
69.65% |
66.47% |
3.18% |
3.28% |
基金安久 |
69.69% |
66.87% |
2.82% |
2.91% |
基金金盛 |
67.49% |
64.88% |
2.61% |
2.71% |
基金久嘉 |
67.54% |
65.35% |
2.18% |
2.28% |
基金鴻飛 |
67.54% |
65.35% |
2.18% |
2.28% |
基金漢興 |
59.77% |
57.66% |
2.11% |
2.21% |
基金同益 |
64.21% |
62.12% |
2.09% |
2.19% |
基金漢博 |
66.43% |
64.34% |
2.09% |
2.19% |
基金融鑫 |
74.21% |
72.13% |
2.08% |
2.17% |
基金豐和 |
74.22% |
72.23% |
1.99% |
2.08% |
基金普華 |
68.67% |
66.70% |
1.97% |
2.07% |
基金金泰 |
65.34% |
63.44% |
1.91% |
2.01% |
基金景業 |
66.46% |
64.56% |
1.89% |
1.99% |
基金安信 |
65.35% |
63.48% |
1.87% |
1.97% |
基金漢鼎 |
72.03% |
70.25% |
1.77% |
1.86% |
基金漢盛 |
68.70% |
67.02% |
1.68% |
1.78% |
基金裕澤 |
69.86% |
68.60% |
1.26% |
1.36% |
基金銀豐 |
68.75% |
67.53% |
1.23% |
1.32% |
基金天元 |
73.20% |
72.00% |
1.20% |
1.29% |
基金興安 |
69.87% |
68.68% |
1.19% |
1.29% |
基金興科 |
68.76% |
67.57% |
1.19% |
1.28% |
基金久富 |
69.87% |
68.70% |
1.17% |
1.26% |
基金普豐 |
65.43% |
64.32% |
1.11% |
1.21% |
基金通寶 |
68.77% |
67.66% |
1.11% |
1.20% |
基金鴻陽 |
73.21% |
72.10% |
1.11% |
1.20% |
基金隆元 |
69.88% |
68.79% |
1.09% |
1.18% |
基金安順 |
65.44% |
64.36% |
1.08% |
1.18% |
基金開元 |
71.00% |
70.02% |
0.98% |
1.07% |
基金景博 |
64.34% |
63.41% |
0.93% |
1.03% |
基金興和 |
68.79% |
67.86% |
0.93% |
1.02% |
基金同智 |
65.46% |
64.58% |
0.88% |
0.98% |
基金裕元 |
64.35% |
63.47% |
0.88% |
0.98% |
基金天華 |
66.57% |
65.70% |
0.87% |
0.97% |
基金科瑞 |
71.02% |
70.21% |
0.81% |
0.90% |
基金泰和 |
64.74% |
64.36% |
0.38% |
0.49% |
基金同德 |
73.30% |
73.01% |
0.29% |
0.38% |
基金同盛 |
72.20% |
72.03% |
0.18% |
0.27% |
基金科翔 |
68.88% |
68.77% |
0.11% |
0.20% |
基金景宏 |
70.00% |
70.02% |
-0.02% |
0.07% |
基金科匯 |
74.52% |
75.20% |
-0.68% |
-0.60% |
基金裕華 |
74.52% |
75.24% |
-0.72% |
-0.64% |
基金金元 |
67.87% |
68.71% |
-0.84% |
-0.75% |
基金景陽 |
66.77% |
67.65% |
-0.89% |
-0.79% |
基金景福 |
66.77% |
67.67% |
-0.90% |
-0.80% |
基金興業 |
65.66% |
66.56% |
-0.91% |
-0.81% |
基金安瑞 |
66.77% |
67.68% |
-0.91% |
-0.81% |
基金裕隆 |
67.90% |
68.97% |
-1.07% |
-0.98% |
基金通乾 |
65.69% |
66.87% |
-1.18% |
-1.09% |
基金金鼎 |
65.69% |
66.88% |
-1.19% |
-1.09% |
基金興華 |
67.97% |
69.70% |
-1.73% |
-1.64% |
基金科訊 |
70.20% |
72.02% |
-1.82% |
-1.73% |
基金金鑫 |
70.22% |
72.22% |
-2.00% |
-1.91% |
加權平均 |
68.21% |
67.40% |
0.80% |
0.90% |
倉位穩定 |
*封閉式基金由于數據較少可能出現較大的個別誤差；加權平均倉位參考誤差比例在5%以內。
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春 數據截至：04-10-08 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
  
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