2006年7月10日全球金融市場周報：美國

　　United States 美國

　　US stocks advanced on relief that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was no worse than expected, while the Fed's benign accompanying statement raised hopes that rates were close to a peak. The Dow Jones ended the week 1.5% higher, while the NASDAQ rose 2.4%. Worries that the Fed would raise rates too fa

r and choke economic growth led to cautious trading early in the week ahead of the interest rate decision, particularly after the release of strong consumer confidence and housing market data. Merger activity provided a welcome distraction from the interest rate speculation as Phelps Dodge, a copper miner, launched a USD 40 billion bid to takeover Falconbridge and Inco to create the world's largest nickel producer. Also, Johnson & Johnson, the Dow-listed consumer health products company, announced plans to buy Pfizer's consumer health unit.

　　The interest rate decision, when it finally came on Thursday, saw the Fed raise rates by 0.25% to 5.25% - the 17th successive rate increase. While there was some relief that the rate rise was not bigger (some investors had predicted a 0.5% increase), investor confidence was boosted by the Fed's benign accompanying statement, which said that future rate rises would depend on the outlook for inflation and economic growth. The Fed's statement certainly suggests that it may be close to a pause, possibly after one further quarter-point increase at its meeting in early August (assuming inflation data remains under control). This would be positive for US equities, which have historically rallied as interest rates have peaked.

　　聯儲局議息決定符合預期，聲明溫和又令市場憧憬息口接近見頂，都刺激美股上揚。道瓊斯指數收市升1.5%，納斯達克指數則升2.4%。上周初段市場憂慮聯儲局可能會加息過度，以致窒礙經濟增長，投資者態度審慎，當局發表強勁消費信心及房屋市場數據后尤甚。

　　合并活動將市場注意力從利率問題分散至其它方面，銅礦商Phelps Dodge出價400億美元向Falconbridge and Inco提出收購，以組成全球最大鎳產商。道指成分股消費保健產品公司瓊森(Johnson & Johnson)亦宣布計劃收購輝瑞(Pfizer)的消費保健業務。

　　結果聯儲局于上周四公布加息四分一厘至5.25厘，是連續第17度加息。加息幅度不大，令原先預期會加息半厘的投資者松一口氣。聯儲局聲明溫和，表示未來是否加息將取決于通脹及經濟增長前景，亦刺激投資信心。聯儲局的聲明肯定暗示加息行動快將暫停，時間甚可能在8月初再加息四分一厘之后(假設通脹數據仍然受控)，形勢有利于向來在息口見頂后回升的美股。

　　(以上資料全部來源于JF Asset Management)

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