2006年7月10日全球金融市場周報：日本

　　Japan 日本

　　The TOPIX (+2.7%) rallied strongly at the end of the week as signs that US interest rates were close to a peak helped lift exporters. Earlier in the week the market had remained jittery over interest rates, both at home and in the US. On the domestic front, there has been a host of secondary dilutive equity issue

s such as Elpida, JAL, Nippon Mining and Makino Milling, as well as continuous scrutiny by politicians and the media on BoJ governor Fukui regarding his investments with jailed investor Murakami. However, investors shrugged off such bad news, as concerns on slowdown in the global economy eased off. By sector, commodity, financials and real estate outperformed, while rubber and retail underperformed. 1Q results by retailers have been slightly weaker than expected, which seems to have led to the underperformance, but this seems mainly on the back of poor weather. For the first 6 months, small cap stocks significantly underperformed large caps, but there seem to be some signs of bottoming out in the relative performance of small caps, as valuations have become more attractive.

　　The 2Q Tankan survey from the BoJ showed that the headline business conditions index for large manufacturers rose one point to 21 in June in line with consensus. Japanese firms expect a further rise to 22 in September. Firms' FY2006 capex plans were revised up considerably to 6.2%oYoY. The unemployment rate declined further in May to 4.0% from 4.1% in the previous three months. Among employment, employed workers at firms increased 0.5% MoM and came back to the historical high level recorded in February.

　　美國息口快將見頂刺激出口股造好，上周尾段東京第一市場指數大幅回升2.7%。初段市場一直對日本國內和美國息口憂心忡忡。國內方面，Elpida、日本航空(JAL)、Nippon Mining和Makino Milling等公司相繼發行股份造成攤薄效應，政客及媒體亦緊盯日本央行行長福井俊彥與被捕投資經理村上世彰之間的轇轕。不過，隨著全球經濟放緩隱憂減退，投資者都將這些壞消息拋諸腦后。

　　按類別分析，商品、金融及房地產股造好，橡膠及零售股則表現欠佳。零售商第一季業績略遜預期，似是股價表現不濟的原因，但業績應主要歸咎于天氣惡劣。今年頭六個月小型股走勢遠遜大型股，但隨著股值吸引力加強，情況已有扭轉跡象。

　　日本央行第二季短觀調查結果顯示，6月份大型制造商標題營商信心指數上升1點至21點，符合一般預期。日本企業預計9月份會進一步上升至22點。2006財年的企業資本開支計劃按年增長大幅調高至6.2%。5月份失業率由之前三個月的4.1%進一步下降至4.0%。就業數據方面，企業聘用員工數目較上月增加0.5%，重返2月份歷史高位。

　　(以上資料全部來源于JF Asset Management)

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