⊙港澳資訊 馬晉

　　近期滬深股市運行在震蕩反彈的格局當中，盡管市場的階段跌幅較大，人心思漲亦在情理之中，但客觀而言，國際經濟整體不夠景氣、調整經濟結構導致國內宏觀經濟調控面臨較大的挑戰，同時應對本輪全球性的通貨膨脹也在客觀上給作為微觀經濟體的上市公司的籌融資和正常的生產經營帶來了一定的困難，因此可以判斷市場未來頻繁震蕩的可能性仍將較高。在震蕩的市場環境當中，增長明確或超出預期的個股無疑具備較高的抗風險能力，從而具備較高的操作價值。為此朝陽永續統計了近一個月來機構研究報告業績預測向上調整較大的一百只個股，希望能夠從統計結果中尋找到一些共性，為投資者選股提供一些思路。

　　我們注意到，統計結果中共有8家金融行業個股，涵蓋了銀行、券商和信托等細分行業，占到金融行業總共28家上市公司的29%，比例相當高。而從該行業內其他公司的業績表現來看，整體情況也較為健康。我們都知道，由于和經濟運行以及證券市場景氣度的相關度較高，市場此前對于金融類個股的業績表現存在較悲觀的預期，而從相關公司年報、季報的實際情況來看，市場的反應有明顯的失效跡象。

　　統計中，煤炭、農業化肥、化工和鋼鐵等行業均有多家公司在列，屬于這幾個行業的上市公司共有22家，占比超過兩成。而相關行業的個股無疑也是近期市場中表現最為出色的一個群體，其共性就在于產品價格的上漲將給上市公司帶來業績的提升，或者在上游成本壓力不斷上升的過程中保持毛利率的穩定，得到市場追捧也就在情理之中了。

　　行業更迭也往往能帶來較大的投資機會，比如在現階段的高油價時代，必然催生新能源、替代能源技術的加速發展和成熟。從統計結果中可見，機構對于新能源特別是技術較為成熟的風電行業預期相當樂觀。比如列在首位的申華控股，未來的業績增長點就來自與中國風電集團共同開發的風電項目。

　　新建在建項目帶來的業績預期。部分剛剛實施IPO的中小板個股在列即可充分顯示出市場對于其募資項目的樂觀預期。募資項目對業績的貢獻逐步體現，也成為市場關注的一個方面。

　　同時，在目前溫和通脹的背景下，市場的參與各方都在尋找受益的、或能夠有效對抗通脹的品種。統計結果中，機構對于商業零售、食品飲料、醫藥和家電制造等品種的業績預測都相對樂觀，主要原因就在于這些屬性的行業都是從通脹中受益預期較為明確的。在對抗通脹方面，公用事業類公司歷來得到市場認同，統計結果中公司較少主要是由于相關公司業績通常較平穩，波動性較小，但由于其明確的增長趨勢，在近期的震蕩市中對資金的吸引力也較強。

　　此外，提升上市公司業績的因素不得不提的是資產重組，比如在列的*ST中絨，公司在2007年四季度完成資產重組，2008年上半年扭虧的前景已相當樂觀。當然，資產重組把握起來難度相對較大，投資者要多從上市公司的資本運作、大股東的情況等角度做些功課。最后，促進上市公司業績增長的還有一些非經常性的因素，比如一次性處置資產或者兌現投資收益等，如TCL集團等公司。對于這一點，投資者還需要從上市公司資產處置和兌現投資收益的意圖以及后續的資金運用等方面加以考量，不能單單看當期亮麗的報表。

　　在證券市場中，成長性是永恒的主題，特別在目前人心不穩、估值體系混亂的市場環境中，明確而良好的業績預期必將成為資金的避風港。

　　最近一個月份機構研究報告業績預測向上調整的部分股票

　　基本資料市場最新預測平均值2008年預測凈利調整變動(%)2009年預測凈利調整變動(%)

　　序號代碼簡稱2008200820092009最新最新最新最新最新最新

　　*EPS*PE*EPS*PE/1月前/1季前/半年前/1月前/1季前/半年前

　　1600653申華控股0.04 140.180.03 198.7169.50%58.61% --17.26% -8.85% --

　　2600010包鋼股份0.36 16.270.41 14.3773.40% 73.40% 73.40% 76.16% 76.16% 76.16%

　　3600591上海航空-0.07-122.660.02 443.9367.80% ----127.63%----

　　4000016深康佳A0.46 25.20.53 21.9766.07% 66.07% 66.07% 53.85% 53.85% 53.85%

　　5000982*ST中絨0.29 29.190.34 25.1855.91% 55.91% 55.91% 64.32% 64.32% 64.32%

　　6002041登海種業0.17 137.060.26 88.5852.16% 14.22% 5.12% 50.39% 24.91% 34.39%

　　7900942黃山B股0.59 3.150.71 2.6124.38% 24.38% 24.38% 33.57% 33.57% 33.57%

　　8000100TCL集團0.13 43.20.14 40.5823.40% -10.28%--0.00% -17.20%--

　　9600251冠農股份0.65 108.763.02 23.3423.18% 105.35%77.78% 51.08% 97.60% 122.45%

　　10601998中信銀行0.33 20.80.41 16.8221.87% 31.85% 34.50% 20.22% 27.84% 27.84%

　　11600188兗州煤業0.88 29.31.07 24.0619.15% 21.41% 23.85% 20.68% 23.52% 27.99%

　　12600388龍凈環保0.81 23.170.96 19.4618.59% 18.59% 18.59% 52.37% 52.37% 52.37%

　　13600787中儲股份0.25 34.130.33 26.218.10% 4.90% 4.90% 18.12% 6.40% 6.40%

　　14002133廣宇集團1.02 17.931.39 13.0716.96% 25.96% 30.16% 17.21% 28.26% 31.00%

　　15000790華神集團0.17 89.960.39 38.6916.84% 54.16% 54.16% -41.16%-58.95%-58.95%

　　16600859王府井1.03 41.781.36 31.8116.67% 15.11% 18.21% 16.03% 15.45% 20.35%

　　17002054德美化工0.98 17.491.3 13.115.79% 15.79% 10.95% 17.01% 17.01% 12.01%

　　18601005重慶鋼鐵0.34 19 0.35 18.7315.76% -0.27% -0.27% 7.66% -14.07%-14.07%

　　19000910大亞科技0.69 14.140.86 11.3315.06% 15.06% 15.06% 19.42% 19.42% 19.42%

　　20002132恒星科技1.06 15.151.44 11.1515.00% 43.10% 43.10% 15.13% 47.68% 47.68%

　　21601008連云港0.27 35.90.3 32.9113.90% 22.56% 23.97% 14.95% 22.61% 23.73%

　　22600674川投能源129.151.31 22.2213.66% ----12.30% ----

　　23000792鹽湖鉀肥2.78 34.573.45 27.8513.44% 43.59% 52.10% 14.07% 44.84% 55.81%

　　24600816安信信托2.23 11.23.34 7.5113.44% 5.07% 5389.18%1.81% 1.33% 4052.11%

　　25600216浙江醫藥1.5 18.361.76 15.6513.39% 96.05% 103.35% 15.29% 121.70%144.59%

　　26000948南天信息0.42 41.350.56 30.7213.00% 8.83% --7.28% 5.63% --

　　27002130沃爾核材0.56 37.450.83 25.4212.73% 12.73% 12.73% 17.53% 17.53% 17.53%

　　28000937金牛能源1.38 35.991.6 30.8512.50% 36.58% 36.58% 15.16% 37.24% 37.24%

　　29600109國金證券1.46 31.81.59 29.312.32% -----2.14% ----

　　30002001新 和 成2.5 21.962.82 19.512.25% 147.20%185.00% 27.57% 257.34%301.63%

　　31601919中國遠洋1.54 19.81.55 19.7112.22% 12.22% 77.68% 10.41% 10.41% 51.36%

　　32000159國際實業0.71 29.841.13 18.612.18% 5.88% 5.88% 13.31% 2.95% 2.95%

　　33600765力源液壓1.06 30.131.53 20.7212.08% 25.40% 32.90% 22.86% 37.86% 43.69%

　　34600060海信電器0.52 18.170.71 13.2312.04% 21.79% 21.79% 19.57% 35.35% 35.35%

　　35600201金宇集團0.55 25.570.69 20.3111.21% 1.01% -0.72% 13.21% 3.70% 6.86%

　　36600572康恩貝0.41 24.220.47 21.1811.01% 14.30% 14.30% 10.88% 16.42% 16.42%

　　37600467好當家0.38 36.070.49 28.0711.00% 14.09% 15.58% 12.16% 19.11% 20.98%

　　38000680山推股份0.87 18.881.17 14.0310.69% 20.96% 20.96% 14.61% 28.67% 28.67%

　　39600649原水股份0.54 25.80.78 17.8910.25% 10.25% 79.37% 9.57% 9.57% 121.99%

　　40601666平煤天安1.64 31.171.99 25.678.86% 25.92% 25.92% 13.74% 31.62% 31.62%

　　41600677航天通信0.35 54.460.66 28.768.74% ----92.69% ----

　　42600828*ST成商0.64 38.10.97 24.928.68% 59.71% 59.71% 16.26% 84.86% 84.86%

　　43600686金龍汽車1.14 21.631.3 19.068.60% 12.27% 25.56% 5.09% 7.26% 15.66%

　　44002052同洲電子0.52 20.930.73 15.047.87% 3.41% 22.31% 14.36% 14.01% 45.77%

　　45000718蘇寧環球1.93 9.833.36 5.657.85% 3.68% -32.90% 6.58% 3.46% -32.17%

　　46002128露天煤業0.74 43.630.9 35.767.37% 8.49% 8.49% 8.97% 12.86% 12.86%

　　47000488晨鳴紙業0.84 19.920.94 17.927.13% 10.51% 26.63% 5.17% 6.22% 22.59%

　　48002116中國海誠0.53 38.090.75 27.197.09% 13.21% 13.21% 8.90% 16.66% 16.66%

　　49601169北京銀行0.77 21.080.97 16.87.09% 9.20% 13.49% 3.13% 10.23% 14.61%

　　50600036招商銀行1.52 21.641.99 16.586.74% 10.54% 16.95% 4.62% 8.92% 14.95%

　　51000012南玻A0.65 31.110.94 21.376.69% -8.70% -8.69% 5.07% -6.38% -6.39%

　　基本資料市場最新預測平均值2008年預測凈利調整變動(%)2009年預測凈利調整變動(%)

　　序號代碼簡稱2008200820092009最新最新最新最新最新最新

　　*EPS*PE*EPS*PE/1月前/1季前/半年前/1月前/1季前/半年前

　　52000027深圳能源0.88 14.640.96 13.456.65% 6.65% 6.65% 6.16% 6.16% 6.16%

　　53000651格力電器224.22.68 18.16.62% 7.33% 19.43% 6.00% 6.35% 20.59%

　　54000069華僑城A0.61 24.340.9 16.616.62% 13.74% 16.26% 7.74% 13.63% 15.08%

　　55600725云維股份1.3 25.081.79 18.116.52% 6.53% 11.90% 7.48% 7.51% 23.74%

　　56002029七匹狼0.52 40.040.75 27.936.25% 14.79% 24.59% 6.14% 12.48% 23.75%

　　57600063皖維高新0.58 27.220.78 20.456.21% 6.21% ---4.71% -4.71% --

　　58000800一汽轎車0.57 26.620.69 21.776.21% 20.87% 71.22% 9.02% 25.24% 98.26%

　　59600020中原高速0.42 13.650.45 12.826.05% 6.06% 6.06% 5.81% 5.95% 5.95%

　　60600588用友軟件0.95 32.550.98 31.646.05% 27.64% 42.62% 1.99% 5.42% 22.32%

　　61002164東力傳動0.63 34.630.96 22.785.79% 7.44% 13.54% 6.77% 10.29% 18.79%

　　62000983西山煤電1.41 40.711.88 30.545.60% 7.43% 8.95% 0.87% 0.43% -0.88%

　　63002127新民科技0.66 20.530.82 16.575.45% 6.09% 6.09% 8.90% 8.36% 8.36%

　　64002053云南鹽化0.56 47.550.62 42.445.41% 5.41% 11.77% 4.71% 4.71% 8.35%

　　65600518康美藥業0.31 30.980.42 22.885.10% 6.91% 22.22% 6.83% 7.81% 30.35%

　　66600710常林股份0.45 20.390.57 16.34.69% 12.68% 6.05% 4.26% 7.92% 1.46%

　　67600627上電股份5.02 8.296.01 6.934.67% 4.67% 4.67% 12.04% 12.04% 12.04%

　　68601398工商銀行0.35 17.910.44 14.384.40% 1.23% 0.62% 1.55% -0.60% -1.23%

　　69601328交通銀行0.62 15.890.77 12.644.30% 8.98% 9.97% 3.70% 7.12% 7.62%

　　70600169太原重工1.17 26.071.61 18.844.30% 12.12% 27.04% 4.34% 11.41% 26.76%

　　71000157中聯重科2.07 20.42.67 15.784.28% 13.26% 20.51% 4.45% 12.29% 18.64%

　　72002224三力士0.43 38.870.52 32.44.26% ----6.57% ----

　　73600596新安股份3.22 21.843.76 18.734.22% 47.37% 71.99% 4.19% 40.80% 56.14%

　　74600693東百集團0.39 39.950.59 26.354.19% 4.47% 12.34% 0.81% 1.23% 1.74%

　　75000822山東海化0.75 15.030.82 13.814.16% 11.81% 38.01% 1.86% 5.96% 24.12%

　　76600779水井坊0.75 38.780.99 29.324.01% 14.78% 15.75% 5.00% 14.03% 11.84%

　　77600017日照港0.51 28.140.68 21.323.89% 11.22% 48.81% 9.64% 6.86% 69.18%

　　78000338濰柴動力4.26 15.745.01 13.43.82% 2.30% 5.09% 3.97% 2.51% 3.77%

　　79600806昆明機床0.74 25.211.02 18.273.82% 3.82% 3.65% 2.01% 2.01% 2.59%

　　80600997開灤股份1.51 32.541.8 27.153.77% 9.87% 9.87% 4.71% 14.47% 14.47%

　　81002225濮耐股份0.27 41.60.38 29.713.73% ----4.08% ----

　　82600089特變電工0.76 30.911.02 23.173.72% 22.46% 22.48% 3.41% 26.33% 26.32%

　　83000417合肥百貨0.33 27.160.47 19.053.71% 3.71% 3.71% 3.19% 3.19% 3.19%

　　84002007華蘭生物0.88 44.81.25 31.513.63% 5.42% 11.99% 5.32% 3.79% 11.18%

　　85600026中海發展1.76 17.511.95 15.743.61% 11.85% 21.25% 2.65% 11.80% 21.37%

　　86002011盾安環境1.02 28.211.2 23.963.47% 19.71% 19.71% 10.92% 26.08% 26.08%

　　87600585海螺水泥2.43 24.853.15 19.143.42% 6.44% 7.83% 3.91% 7.85% 9.03%

　　88600000浦發銀行1.86 15.872.36 12.523.37% 14.16% 18.63% 2.55% 13.32% 16.69%

　　89000527美的電器0.93 23.671.24 17.683.34% 10.55% 17.12% 3.81% 12.57% 18.71%

　　90002223魚躍醫療0.48 33.750.65 24.993.18% ----3.78% ----

　　91600359新農開發0.43 31.940.66 20.973.18% 8.15% 8.15% 4.75% -7.71% -7.71%

　　92002038雙鷺藥業0.7 92.450.93 69.473.17% 19.47% 28.59% 3.27% 22.51% 30.59%

　　93000589黔輪胎A0.49 17.540.57 15.273.07% -6.87% -6.87% 0.32% -1.37% -1.37%

　　94002093國脈科技0.36 59.020.54 39.583.07% 3.07% 8.86% 8.67% 8.26% 8.71%

　　95002091江蘇國泰0.55 18.120.63 15.792.97% 34.67% 34.67% 4.86% 34.69% 34.69%

　　96000568瀘州老窖1.52 39.852.02 30.042.97% 19.98% 24.66% 2.37% 20.10% 25.95%

　　97600550天威保變1.23 55.851.65 41.722.87% 15.82% 43.28% 3.31% 21.05% 67.18%

　　98600845寶信軟件0.61 35.870.79 27.572.87% 13.37% 13.37% 2.59% 13.01% 13.01%

　　99002018華星化工1.18 27.061.67 19.132.69% 32.63% 110.82% 3.14% 31.23% 111.29%

　　100002088魯陽股份0.79 23.9118.972.58% 7.07% 7.07% 2.19% 9.40% 9.40%

　　數據來源：上海朝陽永續投資咨詢有限公司 （Go-Goal業績 預測系統）www.go-goal.com;www.china-yjy.com