新浪提示：本文屬于研究報告欄目，僅為分析人士對一只股票的個人觀點和看法，并非正式的新聞報道，新浪不保證其真實性和客觀性，一切有關該股的有效信息，以滬深交易所的公告為準，敬請投資者注意風險。

　　⊙德邦證券 鄭驍俊

　　隨著第三季度季報的公布日臨近，上市公司全年的業績增長情況也越來越趨向明晰，因此機構在對原先的盈利預測作出調整的同時，也吸引了市場資金的注意力。從統計結果可以看到，近一個月來業績預測調整較大的個股的漲幅是相當明顯的，比如上電股份（600627），現有的預測數據幾乎比原先的增長了一倍，反映在股價上就是漲幅接近1.5倍，類似的股票還很多，東方航空近期的暴漲可以說也有這個因素在。

　　從選股角度出發，我們認為企業自身的內生性業績增長才是價值投資的主要依據，由于多種因素綜合，這種增長方式是溫和并且累進的，其階段性的增幅并不會過于吸引市場眼球，但反而會使其股價得到長線資金的關注，股價也細水長流式地上漲。如處于排行中段位置的三一重工、中國玻纖等個股，雖然短期內漲幅不明顯，但業績預測的調整是穩定增長的，而且動態市盈率始終維持在30多倍，低于整個市場的平均水平。打開二級市場股價走勢圖，我們發現股價基本都是處在穩定的上升通道中，累計漲幅已經相當可觀。

　　從基本面來分析，業績預測調整較大的品種基本都存在著外生性的增長刺激，以上電股份為例，8月初刊登公告停牌，復牌后公布換股合并方案，其整體上市的題材促使機構對其業績進行調整，還有調整幅度最大的*ST東方，也是在復牌后公布重大資產重組方案，之后漲勢就一飛沖天。所以，這些個股從具體操作來看，實際是由于其擁有足夠市場想象的題材，因而得到了短線資金的極力推動，換句話說，投機性大于投資性，因此對普通投資者來說并不具備可操作性。

　　由于大盤藍籌股的上漲，以工行、中行等為代表的一線品種的市盈率已經明顯偏高，因此在當前市場進入調整期的同時，相對短線漲幅滯后并且市盈率比較合理的二線藍籌已經開始成為吸引主流資金的價值洼地。從統計結果中我們可以看到，近一個月漲幅在20%左右的二線品種的動態PE大多在20倍-30倍左右，并且業績向上調整幅度大多比較低，可見動態的市盈率依然是衡量個股的一個重要標準，如處在統計結果末端的大多是金屬、能源、醫藥等二線藍籌的溫床。

　　總而言之，市場進入高位震蕩后，短線操作的難度也在相應增加，投機性質較重的題材炒作仍然有豐厚的收益，但把握起來沒有具體標準，所以作為普通投資者，筆者仍然建議從行業自身業績增長著手，挖掘可持續投資的中線機會，選擇價值被低估的藍籌品種。

　　最近一個月份機構研究報告業績預測向上調整最大的股票

　　基本資料市場最新預測平均值2007年預測凈利調整變動(%)近一個月漲幅

　　序號代碼簡稱2007*EPS2007*PE2008*EPS2008*PE最新/1月前最新/1季前最新/半年前

　　1000725*ST東方A0.253.090.2936.91730.49%730.49%9359.92%44.36%

　　2601919中國遠洋0.6962.430.7854.92165.07%174.43%--97.24%

　　3000887ST中鼎0.5627.60.7919.4116.46%124.79%--13.73%

　　4600627上電股份2.6226.834.814.64103.83%99.61%99.61%150.51%

　　5600830大紅鷹0.3256.890.4936.66102.17%102.17%--65.20%

　　6600115東方航空0.09236.270.3268.4368.80%68.80%42.21%126.67%

　　7600363聯創光電0.2153.230.3135.9249.89%77.61%37.43%5.89%

　　8002011盾安環境0.2891.831.9213.3647.68%182.29%182.29%0.51%

　　9002065東華合創0.9141.641.1233.7345.29%53.48%52.73%40.10%

　　10000927一汽夏利0.4339.710.6824.7443.46%39.55%24.53%54.98%

　　11600739遼寧成大1.1547.661.3740.0737.68%163.42%163.42%-7.46%

　　12000511銀基發展0.258.090.2644.7836.04%36.04%18.35%-7.61%

　　13600058五礦發展0.9252.341.6629.0835.12%35.12%35.12%54.27%

　　14600031三一重工1.1543.761.533.4132.48%54.27%59.48%-1.33%

　　15600169太原重工0.5262.610.7444.0332.35%32.35%68.25%22.36%

　　16900948伊泰B股2.655.453.653.9631.39%31.39%--64.46%

　　17002068黑貓股份0.934.311.1127.8127.23%27.23%27.23%20.88%

　　18000541佛山照明0.7135.470.7434.1827.08%27.08%28.11%-0.12%

　　19601628中國人壽0.8567.771.1450.7526.41%26.41%44.62%18.35%

　　20000402金融街0.8640.751.2228.8525.32%30.67%31.36%-10.99%

　　21000718蘇寧環球0.759.552.6715.5924.67%72.18%72.18%-3.08%

　　22000951中國重汽1.7839.532.3829.4924.35%41.67%53.26%5.91%

　　23000527美的電器0.7845.691.0135.2523.57%28.40%60.28%10.24%

　　24600166福田汽車0.440.760.532.3123.56%28.43%122.84%10.11%

　　25000728S*ST化二4.023.324.223.1722.94%----0.00%

　　26600682S寧新百0.3477.490.4459.7421.79%21.79%21.79%1.15%

　　27600570恒生電子0.4187.560.5861.3520.74%20.74%37.78%53.02%

　　28600594益佰制藥0.5227.870.5526.6220.70%33.73%10.49%-8.95%

　　29600010包鋼股份0.2638.590.3528.2120.65%20.65%20.65%27.83%

　　30000338濰柴動力3.2329.273.8724.4720.45%26.37%--10.00%

　　31000912瀘天化0.8725.061.0620.419.77%19.77%19.72%24.63%

　　32600688S上石化0.3851.30.4543.5118.83%0.03%4.68%28.44%

　　33000655金嶺礦業0.6856.571.8620.7318.34%18.34%18.34%57.55%

　　34002054德美化工0.6633.940.8825.3218.02%50.55%59.60%3.50%

　　35600176中國玻纖0.5747.740.8432.2817.58%21.26%15.00%35.47%

　　36600408安泰集團0.4350.410.6135.4117.07%44.50%44.50%35.93%

　　37002063遠光軟件0.4741.320.6330.9516.63%35.24%39.61%-11.27%

　　38601111中國國航0.2995.750.4660.2716.49%47.15%56.55%78.37%

　　39600150中國船舶7.131.9610.7921.0316.28%96.16%258.53%24.38%

　　40000989九芝堂0.3342.540.345.5416.28%68.39%68.39%-0.08%

　　41000513麗珠集團0.8338.240.8338.0116.04%16.04%107.81%-10.07%

　　42600875東方電機4.5118.474.7917.3715.91%21.89%53.37%11.81%

　　43000002萬科A0.5555.30.8834.6114.61%17.98%23.70%-7.89%

　　44600310桂東電力0.7244.890.7344.514.49%14.49%14.49%-0.71%

　　45002067景興紙業0.3347.550.5628.1314.47%14.81%26.23%27.90%

　　46600718東軟股份1.1735.841.6225.8414.07%14.07%16.11%-4.69%

　　47600201金宇集團0.3751.250.5137.1113.24%13.24%14.39%35.49%

　　48000608陽光股份0.3857.090.5738.5712.76%12.76%-1.69%5.94%

　　49600006東風汽車0.2836.730.3628.6112.50%12.50%12.96%22.09%

　　50002038雙鷺藥業0.8346.591.0835.5112.02%35.67%52.38%-9.10%

　　51600459貴研鉑業1.7943.682.4731.6611.93%11.93%24.17%11.98%

　　52000066長城電腦0.2266.060.2949.0811.77%10.69%-21.92%13.46%

　　基本資料市場最新預測平均值2007年預測凈利調整變動(%)近一個月漲幅

　　序號代碼簡稱2007*EPS2007*PE2008*EPS2008*PE最新/1月前最新/1季前最新/半年前

　　53600380健康元0.5933.140.6728.8111.47%10.90%74.67%-0.72%

　　54600357承德釩鈦0.5342.560.8526.811.35%21.47%21.47%58.44%

　　55000429粵高速A0.3926.890.4324.0411.23%27.43%24.25%7.00%

　　56600804鵬博士0.2696.620.5347.3710.83%119.56%119.56%-2.10%

　　57601398工商銀行0.2230.360.2922.4510.60%15.78%17.78%-7.17%

　　58600170上海建工0.4240.880.4835.910.58%10.58%--19.00%

　　59600858銀座股份0.6866.640.9150.0210.38%7.74%11.03%6.17%

　　60000825太鋼不銹1.3922.881.6519.39.89%14.63%63.26%23.73%

　　61600600青島啤酒0.4680.170.6160.569.67%12.04%33.81%31.50%

　　62000559萬向錢潮0.2359.120.346.419.47%17.52%-17.76%6.85%

　　63600581八一鋼鐵0.4541.310.5632.829.38%9.38%9.38%87.66%

　　64600517置信電氣0.6973.721.1842.829.36%8.21%10.30%6.14%

　　65600260凱樂科技0.4927.540.4828.599.07%9.07%9.07%-7.08%

　　66000635英力特0.6834.961.2718.838.86%15.54%15.54%22.52%

　　67600815廈工股份0.3441.440.4828.858.71%196.98%196.98%11.90%

　　68600251冠農股份0.16161.290.2893.678.67%8.67%8.67%2.29%

　　69002003偉星股份0.6250.040.8536.268.29%21.10%31.03%6.58%

　　70000717韶鋼松山0.5925.570.721.667.87%24.59%36.82%44.48%

　　71600256廣匯股份0.3844.750.4538.197.70%47.85%38.62%11.94%

　　72600690青島海爾0.5251.530.738.287.68%11.99%1.10%24.60%

　　73600177雅戈爾0.740.470.6444.857.52%7.52%48.40%-5.26%

　　74000932華菱管線0.6621.510.7618.87.28%7.28%8.60%25.08%

　　75600837海通證券1.0742.341.2735.827.28%20.72%---8.95%

　　76000528柳工1.1135.921.3828.996.73%13.36%23.19%27.57%

　　77600755廈門國貿0.6239.780.7731.956.70%6.70%6.70%2.71%

　　78000709唐鋼股份0.9130.771.0825.976.69%8.35%20.19%48.70%

　　79600895張江高科0.3274.720.4948.86.21%3.83%2.70%8.89%

　　80600498烽火通信0.2361.290.3144.66.12%12.26%30.26%-1.57%

　　81000686東北證券1.7828.682.1623.656.08%----213.18%

　　82600409三友化工0.5531.250.724.35.96%16.81%40.57%47.12%

　　83600000浦發銀行1.1742.691.827.625.87%7.02%11.86%10.64%

　　84000831關鋁股份0.9336.471.3325.375.82%2.48%7.72%61.20%

　　85600509天富熱電0.3788.840.8140.925.81%5.81%13.03%14.45%

　　86000792鹽湖鉀肥1.3738.211.6631.645.78%5.60%11.02%28.30%

　　87000027深能源A1.1823.691.419.955.75%0.45%14.10%3.98%

　　88600206有研硅股0.559.040.8136.515.66%14.40%75.07%0.37%

　　89000905廈門港務0.2836.860.3232.675.65%11.98%18.39%11.04%

　　90600087南京水運0.639.580.9923.75.63%7.85%31.22%49.10%

　　91000758中色股份0.7164.810.8951.795.59%5.59%8.68%43.86%

　　92601318中國平安1.7667.072.449.295.53%22.29%41.49%28.04%

　　93600069銀鴿投資0.4544.720.5834.595.49%5.49%4.49%58.25%

　　94000625長安汽車0.4944.140.7429.345.49%1.90%5.50%22.87%

　　95002013中航精機0.376.750.3958.955.39%5.39%-6.40%-7.59%

　　96600479千金藥業0.6248.470.7838.195.39%5.33%5.45%10.08%

　　97600153建發股份0.9231.311.126.175.22%5.22%36.29%12.92%

　　98600432吉恩鎳業2.4736.51329.965.01%11.07%16.17%44.48%

　　99600460士蘭微0.2159.470.2451.034.96%4.96%-0.77%-3.69%

　　100600308華泰股份1.0931.881.3825.064.91%8.79%8.36%33.93%

　　統計周期：2007-08-21～2007-09-21

　　數據來源：上海朝陽永續投資咨詢有限公司 （Go-Goal業績 預測系統）

　　www.go-goal.com;www.china-yjy.com

    新浪聲明：本版文章內容純屬作者個人觀點，僅供投資者參考，并不構成投資建議。投資者據此操作，風險自擔。