中國的高級官員表示，政府正在準備采取措施，給迅速發展的經濟降溫，其中可能包括提高利率。

The Chinese authorities are preparing measures to cool their booming economy, including a possible rise in interest rates, according to senior officials.

國務院發展研究中心主任王夢奎表示，中國正遭受通貨膨脹和投資過熱的困擾，并且有可能在2004年全年出現貿易逆差。“根據我的觀察，如有需要，就有可能提高貸款利率，尤其是中長期貸款利率，”王先生說道，“調整利率將對通貨膨脹產生較好的影響。”

Wang Mengkui, director of the Development Research Centre of the State Council (the cabinet), said China was suffering from inflation and overheated investment, and would probably register a trade deficit for the whole of 2004. "According to my observation, if there is a need, there is a possibility to raise the lending rates, especially those rates on mid and long-term loans," Mr Wang said. "The adjustment of interest rates would have a relatively good impact on inflation."

自1995年以來，中國政府一直反對升息。但有跡象表明，政府的這一立場首次開始弱化，而王先生的評論與此相一致。中國官方媒體引用中國央行中國人民銀行副行長吳曉靈的話說，如果通貨膨脹率超過銀行貸款利率，那么當局將“不會坐視不管”。

Mr Wang's comments coincided with signs that Beijing is easing its longstanding opposition to raising interest rates for the first time since 1995. Wu Xiaoling, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, was quoted by state media as saying authorities would "not turn a blind eye" if inflation surpassed bank lending rates.

中國政府設定的銀行一年期貸款利率為5.31%，而一年期存款利率為1.98%。今年第一季，通脹壓力的主要指標消費物價指數(CPI)年率上升2.8%。

The administratively set one-year lending rate at Chinese banks is 5.31 per cent, while the one-year deposit rate is 1.98 per cent. The CPI, main indicator of inflationary pressures, was 2.8 per cent up year-on-year in the first quarter of this year.

王先生預計，用消費物價指數來衡量，全年價格上漲幅度將達到5%，高于政府3%的預測。通貨膨脹主要是原材料和能源價格上漲引起，但許多制成品依然供應過剩，意味著通貨膨脹“將不會成為大問題”，他說道。

Mr Wang expects price rises, as measured by the CPI, to reach 5 per cent for the full year, higher than Beijing's prediction of 3 per cent. Inflation was being caused mainly by rising prices of raw materials and energy but many manufactured goods remained in oversupply, meaning that inflation "will not become a big problem", he said.

他表示，政府部門抑制投資失控的努力，也將減輕基礎設施和建設項目所用原材料的通脹壓力。

Efforts by government departments to tame runaway investment would also reduce inflationary pressures on raw materials used in infrastructure and construction projects, he said.

“我的預測是，今年全年的國內生產總值將增長8.5%，”王先生表示。他還指出，他的預測高于7%的官方預測。第一季度中國官方公布的經濟增長率達到了9.7%。

"I would like to predict the whole year's gross domestic product will rise 8.5 per cent," Mr Wang said, noting that his prediction was higher than the 7 per cent official forecast. In the first quarter the economy grew by an official 9.7 per cent.

王先生表示，人民幣面臨的升值壓力正在減弱，部分原因是國內出現了通貨膨脹，部分是因為中國已連續三個月出現貿易逆差。

Mr Wang said pressures on the renminbi to appreciate were abating partly because of domestic inflation and partly because China has run a trade deficit for three consecutive months.

他說，中國的貿易逆差現象今年全年都有可能得以繼續，從而成為自1993年以來的首次全年逆差。“中國目前的外匯儲備已逾4000億美元，我們目前用不著這么多。（貿易）逆差沒什么可怕的。即使是我們的外匯儲備下降，也不是什么很嚴重的問題。”

It was possible, he said, that the trade deficit could continue for all this year, resulting in the first full-year shortfall since 1993. "China has got foreign currency reserves of over $400bn and we can't use that much. A [trade] deficit is not something to be afraid of. If our reserves fall, it will not be a serious problem."

他說，中國外匯儲備下降，對美國經濟不會造成嚴重影響，盡管中國政府已將大部分日益增長的外匯儲備用于購買美國國債，有助于美國將利率保持在低水平。

He said the impact on the US economy of falling Chinese reserves would not be serious, despite the fact that Beijing has used much of its mounting reserves to buy US Treasuries, helping keep US rates low.

王先生表示，中國將不會采取激烈的措施為經濟降溫，寧愿采取較小的步驟控制投資。

Mr Wang said China would not take drastic measures to cool the economy, preferring smaller steps all aimed at reining in investment.

中國將終止旨在刺激煤炭等大宗商品出口的優惠政策，這將有助于確保國內市場的供應并降低價格壓力。

It would end preferential policies intended to spur the export of commodities such as coal, which would help ensure supply and reduce prices pressures in the domestic market.

最后，政府有關部門正在考慮修改評估地方政府官員政績的標準。原來強調經濟增長的標準可能會得到調整，并將衛生、教育和環境的進步等其他標準囊括其中。

Lastly, authorities were considering altering criteria by which the careers of local officials are judged. The emphasis on growth could be moderated by including other criteria such as progress on health, education and the environment.

譯者/李裕