國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和經濟合作與發展組織(OECD)昨天表示，美國財政赤字可能會對美國和全球的利率及經濟增長造成嚴重影響。

US fiscal deficits could have a serious impact on US and global interest rates and economic growth, the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said yesterday.

國際貨幣基金組織的《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)將于下周全文發表，其中有一章寫道，美國財政和經常賬戶的失衡狀況必須得到重新調整，而有秩序地重新調整全球經濟失衡狀況，需要美國財政趨于穩定并努力促進海外需求增長。

A chapter from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, which will be released in full next week, says that US fiscal and current account imbalances must be rebalanced and that an orderly rebalancing of global economic imbalances requires fiscal stabilisation in the US as well as efforts to promote demand growth abroad.

布什(Bush)政府計劃到2009年前相對2004年基準削減一半赤字，國際貨幣基金組織對此表示擔憂，并指出“有關政府運作”，美國存在“一系列略嫌樂觀的假設”。

The IMF expresses concern about the Bush administration's plans to cut the deficit in half by 2009, relative to the 2004 baseline, pointing to "a series of somewhat optimistic assumptions about government operations".

這些假設包括，2004年以后，美國在伊拉克的維和行動不會讓美國納稅人蒙受損失，嚴格遏制除國防和國土安全以外的支出，稅收收入將會跳升，以及不會改革替代性最低稅(Alternative Minimum Tax)。

These include no cost to US taxpayers from peacekeeping operations in Iraq beyond 2004, a strict containment of spending other than on defence and homeland security, and the assumption that tax revenues will jump and that there will be no reform of the Alternative Minimum Tax.

國際貨幣基金組織指出，美國國會預算辦公室的估算表明，在未來10年中，美國的赤字將基本上保持不變。

The IMF points to estimates by the US Congressional Budget Office that suggest the US deficit will remain largely unchanged over the next decade.

在昨天發布的另一份報告中，國際貨幣基金組織和經合組織呼吁，要采取更緊迫的措施來減少美國財政赤字，以避免對利率的有害影響及對私人投資的排擠。

The IMF and the OECD, in a separate report released yesterday, call for more stringent efforts to reduce the US fiscal deficit in order to avoid deleterious effects on interest rates and crowding out private investment.

“需優先考慮的問題是，如何對抗當前及預見到的聯邦預算赤字。”經合組織表示，并警告說，“如果不降低公共負儲蓄，利率就有可能上升，最終經濟潛在增長速度必將減緩”。

"By far the top priority is to confront the current and projected federal budget deficits," the OECD said, warning that "if public dissaving is not reduced, interest rates may be higher, ultimately implying slower growth in economic potential".

2000年以來美國財政赤字相對于國內生產總值(GDP)的比例惡化了7%，這是自二戰以來最大的惡化，約相當于世界儲蓄總量的6%。

The 7 per cent deterioration in the ratio of the US fiscal deficit relative to GDP since 2000 is the largest deterioration since the second world war and is equal to about 6 per cent of world gross savings.

國際貨幣基金組織表示，目前的低利率水平反映了美國企業對外部信貸的需求較低，但是，如果出現公司和政府爭奪資金的情況，那就會推高美國和全球的利率，并且排擠投資。

The IMF said current low interest rates reflected low demand from US businesses for external credit, but that a situation in which companies compete with the government for funds would push up both US and global interest rates and crowd out investment.

“這種情況越快得到控制，對全世界越好，”國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家拉古拉姆•瑞占(Raghuram Rajan)表示，“美國在過去一年經濟增長強勁，已使擴張性政策的正面貢獻很明顯，但目前我們認為，鞏固這一貢獻的必要性越來越大。”

"The sooner it is brought under control the better it will be for the world," said Raghuram Rajan, the IMF's chief economist. "Strong US growth over the past year has made the positive contribution of expansionary policy clear but at this point we see the increasing need for consolidation."

中國已崛起為一個全球經濟強國，而人們擔心這將對其他國家產生負面影響。對于這個問題，國際貨幣基金組織在《世界經濟展望》也有論述。據國際貨幣基金組織稱，中國的崛起對全球經濟的沖擊會比較有限，而且對全球經濟帶來的好處也比許多觀察家認為的要多。

The IMF's World Economic Outlook also addresses China's rise as a global economic power and concern that this will have a negative impact on other countries. The impact of China's rise on the global economy will be more limited and also more beneficial than many observers suggest, according to the IMF.

該報告寫道，中國成為世界第六大經濟體（按市場價格計算）和第四大貿易國，是緊密效仿了日本和東南亞經濟體設定的模式。

China's emergence as the world's sixth largest economy (at market prices) and fourth largest trader has followed closely the pattern set by Japan and south-east Asian economies, the report says.

國際貨幣基金組織表示，全球市場的進一步整合將使中國受益，而富國也將得益于來自中國的廉價進口品。向中國提供資本產品的發展中國家，以及大宗商品生產國將受益于中國的需求。

China will benefit from greater integration in the world market, but rich countries benefit from cheaper imports. Developing countries that supply China with capital goods and commodity producing countries benefit from Chinese demand, the IMF says.

譯者/李裕