德國會不會變成新加坡？或許這個問題看似古怪，但一些經濟學家卻在專心思量，因為他們看到，歐元兌美元的升勢似乎一發不可收。

Could Germany be turning into Singapore? The question may seem odd but it is seriously preoccupying economists observing the seemingly unstoppable ascent of the euro against the dollar.

經濟學家日益擔心，隨著歐元不斷升值，作為歐洲最大經濟體的德國，其競爭力和工業強國地位將被削弱，因此，歐元升值也許正在加速德國的去工業化（de-industrialisation）進程。

Their fears are growing that euro strength may be accelerating the de-industrialisation of Germany as the relentless rise of the single currency erodes the competitiveness of Europe's biggest economy and its industrial powerhouse.

這個過程已經持續了一段時間，但在歐元走強的背景下，這一過程的加速可能會有助于德國最大的制造商轉變為進出口貿易商。

The process has been under way for some time. But its acceleration under the strong euro could help turn Germany's biggest manufacturers into import-and-export traders.

歐元在過去一年內已升值逾20%，逼近1歐元兌1.30美元水平，因此，許多利潤率低且依賴出口的德國制造商開始焦慮不安，其中包括汽車生產商、工具制造商和電子品集團。

Scores of Germany's low-margin, export-dependent manufacturers - carmakers, tool manufacturers and electronics groups - are beginning to sweat as the euro, already up by more than 20 per cent over the past year, stampedes towards $1.30.

德國經濟的前景讓德國政府為之警覺。為德國政府提供經濟政策建議的五位“智囊”之一——伯特•呂魯普(Bert Ruerup)表示，哪怕歐元升值只是導致德國暫時喪失競爭力，那也可能進一步損傷德國的工業結構。他擔心歐元持久升值可能加速侵蝕制造業的根基，令德國面臨失業長期增長與實際收入停滯不前的狀況。從就業角度來看，制造業仍是德國經濟的中流砥柱。

The prospect is ringing alarm bells in Berlin. Bert Ruerup, one of the five "wise men" who advise the government on economic policy, says even a temporary loss of competitiveness because of the euro could further damage Germany's industrial fabric. He fears prolonged euro appreciation could hasten the erosion of the manufacturing base, still the backbone of Germany's economy in terms of jobs, leaving the country facing prolonged unemployment growth and stagnating real incomes.

呂魯普先生表示，他擔心歐元走強不僅會威脅德國產品在美國的市場份額，而且會抑制德國在歐元區及亞洲的銷售情況，而低成本的競爭國正在亞洲侵占地盤。

A strong euro not only threatens Germany's market share in the US, says Mr Ruerup. He fears it will also curb German sales in the eurozone and in Asia where lower-cost competitors are making inroads.

他警告說，德國面臨成為“集市經濟體”的風險，即成為以貿易為基礎、由薄弱的制造業支撐的經濟體。這個經濟體的出口保持強勁，但“本土含量的份額不斷縮減”。

He warns that Germany risks becoming "a bazaar economy" - a trade-based economy with a thin manufacturing backbone in which exports remain strong but "the share of local content is decreasing".

經濟學家表示，德國的勞動力成本比歐盟國家平均水平高20%，在很大程度上驅動了德國的去工業化過程，而這個過程已持續了一段時間。在過去十年中，一些公司已把生產遷到薪資更低且勞動法規更為寬松的國家。

Economists say de-industrialisation, driven largely by labour costs that are 20 per cent above the European Union average, has been under way for some time. Over the past decade, companies have relocated production to countries with lower wages and less rigid labour laws.

但匯豐銀行(HSBC)的羅伯特•普萊爾(Robert Prior)表示，若歐元走強，特別是若歐元在不當高位保持一段時間的話，上述趨勢將惡化。德國工商總會(DIHK)最近的一項研究結果表明，約四分之一的德國企業打算在今后三年內將部分生產從德國轉向它國。而三年前，這個比例是五分之一。

But the strong euro, especially if it stays at an uncomfortably high level for some time, will worsen the trend, says Robert Prior of HSBC. According to a recent study by the German federation of chambers of commerce (DIHK), about one in four German companies intends to shift some production away from Germany over the next three years. Three years ago, it was one in five.

也許更值得注意的是，這種遷移不再局限于工資密集型制造業務，而是擴展到行政管理、會計與研發領域。西門子(Siemens)本周早些時候表示，將把會計崗位轉移到捷克首都布拉格，以節省成本。這種轉移也不限于大公司，中等規模的公司也加入到大批撤離者的行列。中等規模公司的產出占德國產出的大部分。

More significantly perhaps, the shift is no longer restricted to wage-intensive manufacturing operations but also administrative, accounting and research and development. Earlier this week Siemens said it would relocate accounting staff to the Czech capital Prague to save costs. Nor is the shift confined to big companies. Medium sized (Mittelstand) companies that account for the bulk of output have joined the exodus.

法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)的讓-洛瓦克•吉耶澤(Jean-Loic Guieze)表示，上世紀90年代，德國企業的外國直接投資步伐加快，其中多數投資進入美國和其它歐盟國家，但在工資成本低得多的中歐，德國也一直是最大的投資國。外國直接投資是產能轉移的表現。

Jean-Loic Guieze of BNP Paribas says foreign direct investment by German companies, a reflection of shifting production capacity, accelerated in the 1990s. Most of it went to the US and the EU. But Germany has also been the biggest investor in central Europe, where wage costs are much lower.

最近幾周，歐元急升至創紀錄的高位，進一步激勵德國制造商將目光投向海外。

In recent weeks the euro's surge to a record high has given manufacturers an extra incentive to look overseas.

經濟學家表示，一段時間以來，德國已明顯出現工業衰落的跡象。1990年至今，制造業產值已從相當于出口總額的130%降至90%。從2000年至2002年，私人部門投資的降幅超過11%。在同一時期，制造業裁員約40萬人，高于10年前經濟衰退時登記的裁員人數，但當時的經濟更低迷。

Signs of Germany's industrial decline have been evident for some time, say economists. The output of the manufacturing sector has dropped from 130 per cent of the value of total exports to 90 per cent between 1990 and now. Private sector investment has fallen more than 11 per cent between 2000 and 2002. Over the same period, the number of jobs shed by the manufacturing sector - about 400,000 - has exceeded the cuts registered in the recession 10 years ago, although the economic downturn was deeper then.

經濟學家預計，隨著德國企業努力削減成本并提高生產力，裁員人數將進一步增加。近期公布的數據顯示，德國的就業人數正以10年來最快的步伐下降。

Economists expect even more jobs to go as German companies struggle to cut costs and boost productivity. by Recent figures show employment falling at its fastest pace for 10 years.

不過，德國工業衰落的規模尚不及英國。英國制造業占國內生產總值的份額已從1970年的31%降至目前的17%左右。但呂魯普先生表示，在醫藥化工等領域，德國已喪失其國際領先地位。醫藥化工業曾是萊茵資本主義皇冠上的寶石。

Industrial decline has not yet reached the scale seen in Britain where manufacturing's share of gross domestic product fell from 31 per cent in 1970 to about 17 now. But Mr R黵up says Germany has already lost its international leadership in such areas as pharmaceuticals and chemicals, once the crown jewels of Rhineland capitalism.

許多專家相信，工業崗位和產值的減少終將迫使德國提高生產效率。另有專家認為，隨著就業崗位轉移至服務業，工業崗位和產值的減少是經濟進步的自然結果。

Many experts believe the loss of industrial jobs and output will ultimately force Germany to become more efficient. Others see it as a natural consequence of economic progress as employment shifts to the service sector.

但呂魯普先生擔心最糟糕的局面出現。“如果德國擁有工業的替代品，那么去工業化不會這么成問題，”他說，“然而，盡管我們擁有良好的中間科技，但我們并未參與高科技革命。”

But Mr Ruerup fears the worst. "De-industrialisation would not be such a problem if Germany had a substitute," he says. "But while we are good in middle technology, we are not participating in the high-tech revolution."

譯者/張征