不管就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的消息是好是壞，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)拯救計(jì)劃都保持不變。喬治•W•布什(George W. Bush)想讓其減稅方案永久化。這就像使用阿司匹林就能立竿見影，卻硬要開出終生服用類固醇的處方。這種減稅，只能有限地刺激短期消費(fèi)，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的影響更是微乎其微。未來(lái)年代的減稅會(huì)增加消費(fèi)，直至失業(yè)降至保障通脹安全的最低水平后很久，這很有可能阻礙長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)。這種減稅方案還有可能導(dǎo)致短期內(nèi)發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，進(jìn)一步摧毀工作機(jī)會(huì)。

Good news about jobs or bad, the president's remedy remains the same. George W. Bush wants to make his tax cuts permanent. That is like prescribing a regimen of steroids for life, when fast-acting aspirin would do. Only the small fraction of the cuts that significantly boosts spending in the short term will further the recovery. Tax cuts in future years will increase spending long after unemployment is down to its inflation-safe minimum and are more likely to retard growth in the long term. They also risk a job-destroying financial crisis in the short term.

一般而言，企業(yè)增加生產(chǎn)則需要更多工人，需要更多工人則會(huì)創(chuàng)造工作機(jī)會(huì)。而企業(yè)增加生產(chǎn)的前提，是他們相信有人會(huì)購(gòu)買他們生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品。如果減稅能增加美國(guó)產(chǎn)品的內(nèi)需和出口，那么減稅就能增加就業(yè)。

Businesses generally create jobs when they need more workers to increase production. They will increase production only if they believe that someone will buy the output. Tax cuts promote jobs when they increase domestic or foreign spending on goods produced by American workers.

出口主要取決于外國(guó)人的收入水平和匯率；減稅對(duì)這兩方面沒有直接影響。另一方面，提供稅務(wù)補(bǔ)貼，讓企業(yè)建新廠或者采購(gòu)機(jī)械，也不是上策，因?yàn)橛泻芏鄰S房和機(jī)械處在閑置狀態(tài)。穩(wěn)妥的對(duì)策，是增加家庭和政府采購(gòu)，同時(shí)保持低利率。近期來(lái)設(shè)備采購(gòu)和軟件消費(fèi)呈現(xiàn)的上升趨勢(shì)正說(shuō)明了這一點(diǎn)。

Exports depend mainly on foreigners' incomes and the exchange rate; cutting our taxes will not affect them directly. Tax subsidies to get businesses to build new plants or buy machinery are not a good bet either while many factories and machines are still idle. The reliable answer to that - as the recent pickup in equipment and software spending suggests - is an increase in household or government purchases, combined with low interest rates.

拋開政府不論，減稅若能刺激家庭消費(fèi)，倒也不失為有效方法。提高稅后收入會(huì)刺激富人以外所有人的消費(fèi)，每增加一美元他們平均會(huì)消費(fèi)60到90美分。減稅的時(shí)機(jī)也至關(guān)重要。布什減稅方案只有一小部分能提高稅后收入，及時(shí)影響短期消費(fèi)。未來(lái)的減稅對(duì)目前的失業(yè)根本不起作用，甚至?xí)�起壞作用。如果在�?jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇之前利率就因預(yù)期赤字而升高，那么未來(lái)的減稅舉措則會(huì)阻礙復(fù)蘇，并減少近期創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)數(shù)量。

Leaving government aside, boosting household spending is where tax cuts can be useful. Increasing after-tax incomes usually causes all but the rich to spend, on average, between 60 and 90 cents of each extra dollar. But timing is crucial. Only a small fraction of the Bush tax cuts will boost after-tax incomes soon enough to affect spending in the short term. Tax cuts that apply to years in the far future are at best useless for reducing current unemployment. Should large prospective deficits push up long-term interest rates before the economy fully recovers, these future cuts will retard recovery and reduce the number of jobs created in the short term.

如果失業(yè)率降低到通脹安全最低水平，減稅和創(chuàng)造就業(yè)的情形如何呢？在這種情況下，私人和公共消費(fèi)只要能抵消生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)，讓就業(yè)和勞動(dòng)力供應(yīng)保持同步增長(zhǎng)就可以了。而實(shí)現(xiàn)這一結(jié)果，只要綜合運(yùn)用一些政策手段就可以了。具體運(yùn)用哪些政策的組合，部分要看我們?nèi)绾畏峙渌饺撕凸�共領(lǐng)域的國(guó)民生產(chǎn)，即多少是消費(fèi)，多少是投資。

What about tax cuts and job-creation once unemployment has fallen to its minimal inflation-safe level? We will then need just enough growth in private and public spending to offset productivity growth and keep job growth in line with the supply of new workers. Many policy combinations could achieve that outcome. The mix should depend in part on how we want to divide the national product between consumption and investment, both private and public.

布什的長(zhǎng)期減稅計(jì)劃會(huì)限制政策手段的選擇。納稅人一般都會(huì)將多出來(lái)的稅后收入部分用于消費(fèi)，只要政府消費(fèi)不對(duì)半削減，總體消費(fèi)支出是會(huì)上升的。為了防止消費(fèi)上升造成通貨膨脹，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（the Federal Reserve）將被迫提高利率，以降低利率敏感型消費(fèi)，特別是商業(yè)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資，以及美國(guó)凈出口，即出口額減進(jìn)口額。（高利率會(huì)提高美元幣值類債券的需求量，這一情形多會(huì)抬高美元和美國(guó)產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格，使外國(guó)產(chǎn)品更便宜。）

The Bush tax cuts that apply far into the future will sharply narrow the options. Because taxpayers typically spend some of their extra after-tax income on consumption, unless the government reduces its spending on consumption dollar for dollar, total spending on consumption will be higher. To prevent this igniting inflation, the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates so as to hold down interest- sensitive spending, notably business and infrastructure investment and US net exports - that is, exports less imports. (High interest rates, by boosting demand for dollar-denominated bonds, will tend to make the dollar and American goods more expensive and foreign goods cheaper.)

除非出現(xiàn)供給的奇跡，否則總統(tǒng)未來(lái)的減稅計(jì)劃都將改變消費(fèi)的構(gòu)成，即增加消費(fèi)，減少國(guó)家投資。受其影響，國(guó)內(nèi)自用產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)能的增速會(huì)放緩。再過(guò)15至20年，我們的孫子輩長(zhǎng)大了，他們?nèi)丝诒緛?lái)就少，生產(chǎn)這些產(chǎn)品的產(chǎn)能有限，而嬰兒潮時(shí)代人的兒子輩數(shù)量眾多，且都多已退休，那時(shí)候就會(huì)出現(xiàn)我們的孫子輩和兒子輩爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)品的局面。

Barring a supply-side miracle, the president's future tax cuts will shift the composition of spending in favour of consumption and against national investment. As a result, the economy's capacity to produce output for our own use will grow more slowly. There will be less output available in 15 to 20 years when our relatively few grandchildren - who will produce that output - will have to share it with our many retired baby-boomer children.

規(guī)劃中的未來(lái)減稅方案在短期內(nèi)也存在危險(xiǎn)。只減稅，不相應(yīng)削減政府消費(fèi)，也不利用高利率防止通脹，這種政策組合是無(wú)法持久的。美國(guó)利率高則導(dǎo)致美元升值，美元升值將使本已龐大的赤字進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。若是通過(guò)貸款支付進(jìn)出口逆差，外債的增長(zhǎng)速度會(huì)超過(guò)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)的增速，如此一來(lái)，債主就會(huì)緊張起來(lái)。他們?nèi)绻麥p持美元債務(wù)，或者削減新增貸款，則會(huì)不經(jīng)意地引發(fā)投機(jī)性的美元拋售。

The planned future tax cuts also pose a danger in the shorter term. Tax cuts unmatched by cuts in government consumption, together with high interest rates to prevent inflation, may not be a sustainable policy combination. Because high US interest rates tend to cause the dollar to appreciate, they are likely to make an already large trade deficit larger. If borrowing to pay for the resulting excess of imports over exports means that our foreign debt keeps increasing faster than gross domestic product, our creditors are likely to get nervous. Should they try to reduce their holdings of dollar debt, or even to cut back on new lending, they might inadvertently set in motion a speculative run from the dollar.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為防止美元價(jià)格的急劇下滑，或許會(huì)進(jìn)一步提高利率。此舉無(wú)論成敗，都將沖擊美國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)，包括就業(yè)在內(nèi)的實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)將因此受損。到了這種情況下，姑且不論需要采取的反周期舉措，長(zhǎng)期財(cái)政秩序都可能需要重新恢復(fù)了，否則沒有出路。

The Fed might try to prevent a free fall in the dollar's price by driving interest rates still higher. Whether it succeeds or fails, US financial markets would take a beating and the real economy, jobs included, would suffer damage. As a saving grace, counter-cyclical measures aside, we would be compelled to restore long-term fiscal order.

長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)速度緩慢，短期經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)觸手可及，如此沉重的代價(jià)，換來(lái)的只是略微刺激當(dāng)前的需求。同樣的目的，完全可以通過(guò)一些眼前有益，日后也無(wú)害的舉措來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。

Slower growth over the long term - and an appreciable risk of a financial crisis in the short term - are a steep price to pay for a little stimulation of current demand that could readily have been achieved by measures that would do more good now and cause no damage later.

本文作者系哈佛大學(xué)肯尼迪學(xué)院政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)榮譽(yù)退休教授。

The writer is professor emeritus of political economy at Harvard's Kennedy School

譯者/柏林