先是西班牙，現(xiàn)在是法國。三月份有兩場選舉已改變了歐洲的政治格局。期待經(jīng)濟政策領(lǐng)域發(fā)生有史以來最大的轉(zhuǎn)變吧。歐元區(qū)的財長往往都是政治上的輕量級人物，沒什么領(lǐng)袖感。正是他們那種觀望態(tài)度致使歐元區(qū)在過去三年內(nèi)經(jīng)濟低速增長。那種態(tài)度還引發(fā)了穩(wěn)定與增長公約的解體，該公約是一套制約歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)的規(guī)則。

First Spain, now France. Two March elections have changed the political landscape in Europe. Expect the biggest change of all in the field of economic policy. The eurozone's finance ministers are political lightweights with no sense of leadership. It was their wait-and-see attitude that contributed to low economic growth over the last three years. It also triggered the collapse of the stability and growth pact, the set of rules that govern economic policy co-ordination in the eurozone.

法國和西班牙分別任命兩位重量級人物擔任財政部長，但這也許還不能令天平朝有利于產(chǎn)生良好政治領(lǐng)袖的方向傾斜。但這是一個開端。在法國，前內(nèi)政部長尼古拉•薩爾科奇(Nicolas Sarkozy)將執(zhí)掌財政部并負責工業(yè)政策。他的前任弗朗西斯•梅爾(Francis Mer)原是個商人，沒有任何政治影響力。薩爾科奇先生則不同，他是有抱負的。有人暗示說，他將成為2007年總統(tǒng)大選的候選人。鑒于法國錯綜復雜的國家政治，他甚至可能不會在貝爾西(Bercy)的財政部久留。但是無論發(fā)生什么，他至少先要盡力把當前的工作做成功。

The appointment of two heavy-hitters as finance ministers in France and Spain may not yet tip the balance in favour of sound political leadership. But it is a start. In France, Nicolas Sarkozy, previously interior minister, will run the finance ministry and will also be responsible for industrial policy. Unlike his predecessor, Francis Mer, a former businessman with no political clout, Mr Sarkozy has ambitions. He is tipped as a candidate for the 2007 presidential elections. Given the intricacies of French national politics, he may not even stay at the Bercy, the French finance ministry, for long. But whatever happens, he will at least have to try to make a success of his current job first.

現(xiàn)任歐盟經(jīng)濟政策事務(wù)專員的佩德羅•索爾韋斯(Pedro Solbes)將成為西班牙新任財政部長，他是倡導穩(wěn)定公約改革的人士中呼聲最高的一個。同樣，索爾韋斯先生也不會是個簡單的財政部長。西班牙新任首相何塞•路易斯•羅德里格斯•薩巴特羅(Jose Luis Rodryguez Zapatero)已選擇將宏觀經(jīng)濟與微觀經(jīng)濟政策并入一個強大的經(jīng)濟部門。

Spain's new finance minister will be Pedro Solbes, currently European commissioner in charge of economic policy, and one of the most vocal proponents of reform of the stability pact. Mr Solbes, too, will not be a simple finance minister. The new Spanish prime minister, Jose Luis Rodryguez Zapatero, has opted to merge macroeconomic and microeconomic policy into a powerful economics department.

歐洲國家的財長在上世紀70年代一度很強勢，當時諸如瓦萊里•吉斯卡爾•德斯坦(Valery Giscard d'Estaing)和赫爾穆特•施密特(Helmut Schmidt)這樣的政治家擔當財長之職。但繼任者的影響力日趨衰微。如今，貨幣政策已落入一個獨立的、有時無濟于事的歐洲央行手中，而大部分政府支出已成為“非自由支配”支出，也就是說不受財長的直接控制。

Europe's finance ministers used to be powerful in the 1970s, when politicians such as Val閞y Giscard d'Estaing and Helmut Schmidt occupied those posts. But their successors have gradually lost influence. Monetary policy is now in the hands of an independent - and at times unhelpful - European Central Bank, while large parts of government spending have become "non-discretionary", meaning outside the finance ministers' direct control.

在過去20年中，法國選民之所以常把時任政府攆下臺，其主要原因就是那些政府無法解決經(jīng)濟問題。那些政府只會做一件事：制定不受擁戴的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革方案，并在此過程中冒著選舉失敗的風險。

Failure to solve economic problems is the main reason why the French electorate has regularly ejected incumbent governments over the past 20 years. All these governments can do is enact unpopular structural reforms and risk electoral defeat in the process.

這么說來，薩爾科奇先生能有什么不同的作為嗎？純粹從國家層面來看，不會有太多不同。人們普遍認定，用歐洲人的話說，薩爾科奇先生是位經(jīng)濟自由主義者：支持低稅收和放松監(jiān)管。但問題是，若要減稅，他就只有三個選擇，或降低支出，或提高支出效率，或準備接受更高的赤字。對于像他這樣一位有政治雄心的人來說，第一個選擇是自毀政治前程，第二個選擇是一廂情愿，第三個選擇則受到穩(wěn)定公約的約束。如果薩爾科奇先生和索爾韋斯先生仍然一切照舊，那他們就會像前任一樣失敗。

So what can Mr Sarkozy do differently? On a purely national level, not much. He is widely judged to be an economic liberal in the European sense of the word: in favour of lower taxes and less regulation. The point is that to reduce taxes, he would have to incur lower expenditure, or improve spending efficiency, or be prepared to accept a higher deficit. The first is political suicide for a man with his political ambitions, the second is wishful thinking, and the third option is constrained by the stability pact. If Mr Sarkozy and Mr Solbes revert to business as usual, they will fail just as their predecessors did.

正因如此，要實現(xiàn)他們的經(jīng)濟承諾，他們就必須在歐洲舞臺上扮演更重要的角色。自1999年經(jīng)濟與貨幣聯(lián)盟(Emu)誕生以來，各國政府始終沒有工具，用來實踐各自有關(guān)減少失業(yè)和加快經(jīng)濟增長的諾言。這些工具目前處在歐洲層面上，而且一直棄置未用。經(jīng)濟與貨幣聯(lián)盟已創(chuàng)造了一個有待填補的政策真空。

This is why, to fulfil their economic promises, they will need to play a larger role on the European stage. Since the start of economic and monetary union (Emu) in 1999, national governments have not had the tools to realise their promises to reduce unemployment and increase growth. These tools are now located at the European level, where they have been lying unused. Emu has created a policy vacuum waiting to be filled.

在歐洲層面上，各國財長可能有什么不同的作為嗎？就協(xié)調(diào)財政政策而言，他們或許能采取一種建設(shè)性的方式，而不僅僅是指責彼此財政赤字過多。他們還可能要求歐洲央行參與一個正式的財政貨幣合作進程。他們甚至還可能認為，通貨膨脹目標應(yīng)當由他們自己，而不是由歐洲央行來確立。他們可能為歐元制定一項匯率政策。作為經(jīng)濟及產(chǎn)業(yè)部長，他們可能共同制定宏觀及微觀經(jīng)濟政策。目前，由于穩(wěn)定公約的規(guī)定死板，因此歐洲國家無法實行短期內(nèi)需要耗費資金的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，例如養(yǎng)老金改革。

What could finance ministers do differently at the European level? They could co-ordinate fiscal policy in a constructive way that goes beyond simply accusing each other of running excessive deficits. They could also ask the central bank to take part in a formal process of fiscal and monetary co-operation. They may even take the view that they, rather than the ECB, should set an inflation target. They could formulate an exchange-rate policy for the euro. As ministers for economics and industry, they could work together on macro- and microeconomic policy. At present, the inflexible rules of the stability pact discourage structural reform that costs money in the short run - such as pensions reform.

歐元區(qū)及其各成員國的經(jīng)濟政策能否取得成功，將取決于這些新一代強有力的財長們是否敢于展現(xiàn)從前缺乏的政治領(lǐng)導才能。

The success of economic policy in the eurozone and in each of its member states will depend on whether this next generation of powerful finance ministers dares to show the political leadership lacking in the past.

電子郵件: wolfgang.munchau@ft.com

wolfgang.munchau@ft.com

譯者/李裕