渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)昨天成為收購傳言對象。在此之前，渣打銀行最大的股東、新加坡商界大亨邱德拔(Tan Sri Khoo Teck Puat)于上周末去世。

Standard Chartered yesterday emerged as the subject of takeover speculation following the death at the weekend of Singaporean tycoon Tan Sri Khoo Teck Puat, StanChart's largest shareholder.

在倫敦股市，渣打銀行股價攀升3.3%，至955.50便士，因為有分析師稱，盡管渣打銀行堅決保持獨立性，但邱先生的去世可能引發他所持13.4%的股份的歸屬問題，這些股份價值15億英鎊(合28億美元)。

Its London share price climbed 3.3 per cent to 955.50p as analysts suggested Mr Khoo's death might trigger a sale of his 13.4 per cent stake - worth ?.5bn ($2.8bn) - to any predator, despite the bank's insistence on remaining independent.

渣打銀行的命運不會馬上確定。邱氏家族昨天表示，現在談這些還“為時過早”。銀行在泛亞洲地區的消費者和企業銀行特許經營業務具有很高價值。

The fate of the bank - whose pan-Asian consumer and corporate banking franchise is highly prized - will not be decided immediately. The Khoo family said yesterday it would be "premature" to comment.

然而，高盛(Goldman Sachs)的銀行分析師羅伊•拉莫斯(Roy Ramos)表示：“我們相信，近期維持現狀是有可能的，但由于邱德拔及其家族過去不是戰略或積極股東，所以長期來看現狀是不可能維持的。”

However, Roy Ramos, banks analyst at Goldman Sachs, said: "We believe the status quo is likely in the near term but unlikely longer term, particularly as Mr Khoo and his family were not strategic or active shareholders."

據悉，渣打銀行的股份一直是邱先生最大的資產，但人們認為，在過去幾年內，那些股份是由他的幾個女兒管理，并通過一些家族信托公司和上市公司持有。

The stake is believed to have been Mr Khoo's biggest asset, but is thought to have been run by a couple of his daughters for the past few years and is held through a number of family trusts and public companies.

邱氏家族的朋友稱，任何有關出售渣打股份的事宜，都將由邱先生14個子女中的4個來決定。

Friends of the Khoo family said that any decision about a possible sale of the stake in StanChart would be taken mainly by four of Mr Khoo's 14 children.

預計最終決定將由他女兒馬維什•黃(Mavis Oei)、杰奎琳(Jacqueline)和伊麗莎白(Elizabeth)及他兒子埃里克(Eric)一起做出。埃里克是新加坡最著名的電影導演之一。這四人是幾家地產公司的董事會成員，而這幾家公司控制著邱氏家族在渣打銀行的股份。

His daughters Mavis Oei, Jacqueline and Elizabeth and son Eric, one of Singapore's most prominent film directors, are expected to dictate the final decision. The four serve as board directors on the several property companies that control the Khoo family stake in StanChart.

“這些子女介入很多家族生意，而且和他們的父親非常親近。他們都像父親一樣精明，”邱先生的朋友、前美國駐新加坡大使史蒂芬•格林(Steven Green)說。

"The children are very involved in the family business and very close to their father. They are very sharp people like their father," said Steven Green, a former US ambassador to Singapore and a friend of Mr Khoo.

邱先生在1986年購買了渣打的股份，并視之為良好的長期投資，但不清楚他的子女是否也這么看。

Mr Khoo, who bought the stake in 1986, saw Standard Chartered as a good long-term investment but whether the children share that view is unclear.

“邱先生完全是這個家族的家長，當他一個人做的決定要由幾個人來做時，情況會大不一樣，”家族的一位朋友說。

"Mr Khoo was very much the family patriarch. When one person makes a decision it can be quite different to when several persons have to make it," a family friend said.

如果該家族真決定出售這些股份，那么市值113億英鎊的渣打銀行就顯得很有吸引力。

If the family were to decide to sell their stake, StanChart, which has a market capitalisation of ?1.3bn, is seen as highly attractive.

在中東、非洲和亞洲地區50個快速發展的市場中（如印度和香港市場），渣打銀行的發展足跡令人羨慕。管理層成功地將銀行核心業務由批發轉向高利潤率的結構性衍生產品，同時提高了單位成本收益比。

It has an enviable footprint in 50 fast-growing Middle Eastern, African and Asian markets like India and Hong Kong. And the management has proved successful in changing the focus of its wholesale business towards higher-margin structured and derivative products, while improving the unit's cost-income ratio.

銀行的企業銀行業務和消費銀行業務的壞賬水平均已降低。

It has brought down bad-debt levels at both the corporate and consumer banking operations.

然而，渣打銀行的遠期市贏率為16倍左右，因此對于巴克萊(Barclays)之類英國銀行來說，不管怎樣，收購渣打都有可能攤薄自己的每股收益。巴克利銀行的遠期市贏率為10倍。

However, StanChart trades on a forward p/e of about 16 times which would make any acquisition potentially dilutive for a UK bank such as Barclays which trades on a forward p/e of 10 times.

花旗集團(Citigroup)和摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)被認為是潛在收購方。匯豐(HSBC)已擁有香港市場30%到40%的份額，如果競購則將遭遇監管方面的難關。

Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase are viewed as potential buyers. HSBC, which already has 30-40 per cent of the Hong Kong market, would run into regulatory difficulties if it were to bid.

新加坡政府投資公司淡馬錫(Temasek)向來積極收購亞洲銀行的股份，該公司可能會對渣打的股份有興趣。分析師同時指出，中國的國有銀行也有可能受到誘惑而前來競購。

Temasek, the Singapore government investment company, which has been active in buying stakes in Asian banks, could be interested. Analysts also suggested state-owned banks in China might be tempted.

然而，大多數分析師認為股份不會馬上出售。Fox-Pitt, Kelton的蘇尼爾•加格(Sunil Garg)稱：“渣打銀行的管理層顯然對自身前景抱有信心，因而目前不太可能支持這樣的交易。”

However, most analysts do not believe a sale is imminent. Sunil Garg of Fox-Pitt, Kelton said: "The management of StanChart is clearly confident in its own prospects and is unlikely to support a deal now."

隨著亞洲各關鍵市場的好轉，渣打銀行股價已從2001年夏566便士的低位反彈。

StanChart has seen shares rise from 566p in summer 2001 helped by the improvement in key Asian markets.

目前該銀行所處的地位看來比2001年時穩固得多，當時首席執行官杜華(Rana Talwar)突然離職，對銀行造成相當大的不確定性。

The bank is seen as being in a much stronger position than in 2001 when the sudden departure of chief executive Rana Talwar created considerable uncertainity.

自那以后，杜華的繼任者戴維思(Mervyn Davies)已經改善了渣打在關鍵市場的盈利狀況。

Since then Mervyn Davies, his successor, has improved the bank's profitability in key markets.

上周該銀行公布年報，2003年稅前利潤從2002年的12.6億增至15.4億美元。

Last week the bank reported annual pre-tax profits of $1.54bn up from $1.26bn in 2002.

新加坡渣打銀行稱，邱先生所持股份何去何從“是邱氏家族的問題”。

StanChart in Singapore said the future of Mr Khoo's stake "is a question for his family".

譯者/李裕