當媒體、通信、IT和互聯網公司的領袖們聚到一起，談到新技術、新成就，大家總是興致勃勃，但說到近期行業遭受的磨難，大家便默不做聲，就像近期在達沃斯(Davos)出現的情況一樣。業內各個領域都遭遇難關：網絡公司泡沫、電信公司破產、音樂產業蕭條、廣告業低迷、電子出版業營收停滯、個人電腦業發展放緩、無線市場飽和、半導體業衰退、報業不景氣、研發費用削減。而問題在于，為什么整個信息產業會如此一致地陷入困境？

When the leaders of media, telecommunications, IT and internet companies congregate, as they did recently in Davos, the talk is upbeat about new accomplishments but subdued about recent ordeals: the dotcom bubble; the telecoms crash; the music industry bust; the advertising downturn; the e-publishing revenue stagnation; the PC slowdown; the wireless saturation; the semiconductor slump; the newspaper recession; the R&D retrenchment. And the question is, why do these predicaments sweep over the information sector so regularly?

上述低迷狀況如此普遍，說明出現了一些根本性的問題，這些問題不僅限于某個行業、也不僅是短期內存在。相反，我們需要認識到，整個信息產業，從音樂、報紙、電信、互聯網、半導體到業內任何領域，都已逐漸受到一個巨大的市場缺陷的影響。當市場價格不能達到自我持續的平衡時，市場就存在某種缺陷。整個信息業的市場缺陷是我們這個時代的根本趨勢之一，這種缺陷具有長期、深遠的影響，而且正在我們眼前發生。

The prevalence of these problems points to fundamental issues beyond a specific industry or short-term period. Instead, we need to recognise that the entire information sector - from music to newspapers to telecoms to internet to semiconductors and anything in-between - has become subject to a gigantic market failure in slow motion. A market failure exists when market prices cannot reach a self-sustaining equilibrium. The market failure of the entire information sector is one of the fundamental trends of our time, with far-reaching long-term effects, and it is happening right in front of our eyes.

這一問題基本的結構性原因在于，信息產品的特點就是固定成本高，而邊際成本低。它們的生產成本高昂，但再生產和銷售的成本低廉，因而展現出強大的規模經濟效益，并容易誘發供應過量。另外，有越來越多的信息產品正源源不斷地提供給用戶，而信息產品和服務正變得愈加“商品化”、愈加開放，彼此競爭愈加激烈。

The basic structural reason for this problem is that information products are characterised by high fixed costs and low marginal costs. They are expensive to produce but cheap to reproduce and distribute, and therefore exhibit strong economies of scale with incentives to an over-supply. Second, more information products are continuously being offered to users. And information products and services are becoming more "commodified", open, and competitive.

這些因素所產生的主要后果，就是內容、網絡分布和設備的價格全線崩潰。現在似乎難以對信息產品和服務收取任何費用。音樂產業無法維持價格；除了《金融時報》等幾家優質內容供應商，其它在線出版商都無法對讀者進行收費；國際長途電話價格下跌，而隨著互聯網電話的出現，國際長途價格將幾近于零；網上廣告的價格已大幅下跌；大部分國內新聞和國際新聞都免費供應；很多軟件無償分發或可免費索取；學術論文在網上免費提供；除非要交稅，電視和廣播向來可以白聽白看；即使是有線電視，每周播放2萬個小時的節目，也僅以每小時0.1美分的收費提供給收看者；報紙的價格僅能償付紙張和發行成本，內容則是免費奉送。

The main result of these factors is that prices for content, network distribution and equipment are collapsing across a broad front. It seems to have become difficult to charge anything for information products and services. The music industry is unable to maintain prices. Online publishers cannot charge their readers, except for a few premium providers such as the FT. International phone call prices have dropped, and with internet telephony will move to near-zero. Web advertising prices have collapsed. Much of world and national news is provided for free. A lot of software is distributed or acquired gratis. Academic articles are being distributed online for free. TV and radio have always been free unless taxed. Even cable TV, at 20,000 programme hours a week, is available to viewers at a cost of a 1/10 of 1 cent per hour. Newspaper prices barely cover the physical cost of paper and delivery; the content is thrown in for free.

上述種種都是價格長期下跌的征兆，尚無跡象顯示這種下跌趨勢會有所緩和。這對消費者來說是件大好事，包括那些發展中國家的消費者，但卻為供應商帶來災難。供應商的信息售價或傳播價格正在下跌，趨于邊際成本，而邊際成本則接近零，而且一般都不能負擔全部成本。沒有哪家公司能夠長期這么做。信息市場因科技發展變得越高效，上述進程的發展速度也越快。

All these are symptoms of a chronic price deflation that shows no sign of abating. It is a good deal for consumers, including those of developing countries, but it spells disaster for providers. The price for their information or distribution is dropping towards marginal cost, which is close to zero and typically does not cover full cost. No company can afford to do this for long. And the more efficient the information market becomes due to technology, the faster this process advances.

而且接下去還有更多麻煩。

And there is more trouble ahead.

首先，和從前相比，信息業內各種次級產業相互影響的程度更大、速度更快。舉例來說，“旗幟廣告”(banner ads)的過度采用導致很多網站的業務模式失敗，轉而又損害了科技雜志、電信網絡、互聯網骨干企業、設備制造商和研發業務。

First, the various sub-industries of the information sector affect each other more, and faster, than ever before. For example, the excess availability of banner ads leads to the collapse of the business model for many websites, which in turn harms tech magazines, telecoms networks, internet backbones, equipment makers and R&D.

其次，信息產業將不斷經歷盛衰周期，我們僅僅經歷了其中第一個。面對價格滑坡，信息業公司所做的反應將是削減成本、外包、規避風險、多樣化經營，以及采用“微支付”等新方法。它們將努力革新，好讓自己的產品變得獨特。但是，個人和機構持續吸收快速變革的能力有限，因此，他們采取的主要策略將是整合或組成企業聯盟，以便維持定價能力。結果，價格和利潤將會上升(媒體行業的集中程度也會提高)，這將再次導致市場擴張和新企業的介入，而根據同樣的經濟學邏輯，將出現新的價格大幅下跌，呈現普遍的價格下降趨勢。隨后，在股價下跌引發的信用循環中，價格波動加劇。再者，信息產業價格下跌的震蕩局面，還將通過乘數效應拖累其它經濟領域。

Second, the information industries will go through boom-bust cycles, of which we have merely experienced the first. The reaction of information sector companies to the price declines is to cut costs, outsource, hedge, diversify and use new processes such as micropayments. They will try to innovate to differentiate their products. But there is a limit to the ability of individuals and organisations to absorb rapid change over a sustained period. Therefore, the main strategy will be to consolidate and cartelise in order to maintain pricing power. As a result, prices and profits rise (as well as media concentration), which will lead again to expansion, entry, and by the same economic logic, to a new price collapse, with a general downward trend in prices. Those fluctuations are then exacerbated through credit cycles triggered by the drop in equity prices. Third, the price deflation oscillating through the information sector will drag down the rest of the economy, too, through a multiplier effect.

因此結論就是，隨著各國越來越倚重以信息為基礎的活動，它們的經濟狀況就會變得越來越不穩定。

The conclusion is, therefore, that as countries rely more on information-based activities, their economies become more volatile.

若果真如此，那對于政策的制定又意味著什么呢？源代碼開放軟件、信息共享或公共熱區之類的自愿者活動解決不了問題，因為這些活動也受到被稱為“公用領域的悲劇”（tragedy of the commons）的不穩定性的影響。在“公用領域的悲劇”中，個人吃白食、過度使用行為破壞了公共群體的努力。因此，政府將不可避免地被卷入穩定大局的事務中。但這說來容易做來難。凱恩斯的需求刺激理論等經典方法，以及貨幣政策或產業戰略，都無法解決信息領域的核心問題。問題不是需求或投資不足，而是供應過度、競爭以及結構性價格緊縮。

If that is the case, what are the policy implications? Volunteerist activities such as open-source software, shared information or public hotspots will not solve the problem, because they, too, are subject to the instability known as the "tragedy of the commons", in which individuals' free-loading and over-utilisation destroys the communal effort. Therefore, governments will inevitably be drawn into the business of stabilisation. But this is easier said than done. Classic approaches such as Keynesian demand stimulation, or monetary policy or industrial strategy do not address the core problem of the information sector. That problem is not inadequate demand or investment, but over-supply, competition and structural price deflation.

也許政府所能做的最有效的事，并不是干預信息領域，而是幫助經濟實現多樣化，使之成為更平穩的組合。這就意味著要鼓勵制造業的發展，制造業通常是低科技產業，與信息產業的聯系不太緊密。這樣的政策將與各國以往的政策大相徑庭，因為以往每個國家都想發展成為信息社會。然而發展信息產業戰略雖然取得成功，卻使整個國民經濟面臨更大的動蕩和崩潰的危險。以芬蘭為例，諾基亞的出口占該國出口總額的35%，產值占國內生產總值的15%，此外公司還施加了一些次級影響。因此想象一下，如果這家無線通訊公司變得疲弱，那么整個國家就會面臨風險，而不僅僅是這一家公司。

Perhaps the most effective thing that government can do instead of interfering in the information sector is to help diversify the economy to a more balanced portfolio. This means encouraging manufacturing industries that are not closely correlated with the health of the information sector, often low-tech industries. Such a policy would represent quite a reversal from the past, when every country wanted to develop into an information society. But the success of such a strategy exposes the entire national economy to a greater volatility and disruption. Take Finland. Nokia accounts for 35 per cent of all exports and 15 per cent of GDP, including its secondary impacts. So imagine if the wireless business turns weak. A whole country is at risk, not just a single company.

所以說，信息經濟有可能是個波動性、周期性和不穩定的雜亂體系。人們以為這是一個創新型經濟體內會出現的“創造性破壞”，但問題并非如此，而是一個經濟體中的結構性不穩定。在該經濟體中，主要產品的邊際成本都很低，因此價格也很低，但產品的制造成本不菲。有人認為，以信息為基礎的經濟自然會保持繁榮，現在必須修正這種觀念，應認識到情況不太樂觀。

Thus, the information economy is likely to be a volatile, cyclical, unstable mess. The problem is not the "creative destruction" one would expect in an innovative economy, but the structural instability of an economy whose major products have very low marginal costs and hence prices, but are not low-cost to produce. The notion that an information-based economy will be inherently prosperous must be revised for a less optimistic scenario.

但是，這個結論也許至少能讓我們未雨綢繆，提前考慮在個人領域和公共領域該采取的策略。這比繼續前幾年天花亂墜的宣傳要好，正是這些宣傳令信息企業陷入目前的危機，而這不會是它們面臨的最后一個危機。

But this conclusion might at least enable us to think ahead and contemplate private and public strategies. That would be better than following the hype of previous years, which has led the information industries to their present crisis. It will not be their last.

作者是哥倫比亞大學經濟學與金融學教授，兼該校電信信息學院院長。

The writer is professor of economics and finance at Columbia University and director of its Columbia Institute for Tele-Information

譯者/李功文