新年前夕，德國總理格哈特•施羅德(Gerhard Schroeder)向全國發表講話，他不同尋常地建議: 德國同胞應該以積極購物迎接2004年。他說:“國家的經濟命運大部分掌握在你們手中。”其實，他也許是在白費口舌。

When Gerhard Schroeder addressed the nation on New Year's eve, he had some unusual advice. His fellow citizens, he said, should start 2004 with some serious shopping: "The fate of the economy largely lies in your hands." He might as well have been talking to a wall.

捷孚凱(GfK)市場研究機構上周公布的調查結果顯示，德國消費者信心指數在去年下半年輕微反彈后，又出現回落。隨后，政府于上周五公布了疲軟的12月份零售額數據。

A survey published last week by the GfK market research institute showed consumer sentiment in Germany had fallen again after a slight rebound in the second half of last year. This was followed by the publication of dismal December retail sales figures last Friday.

這是個老問題了。私人消費連續兩年停滯增長，接著在2002年出現下降。實際上，自上世紀90年代兩德統一引發的消費熱潮結束以來，家庭消費狀況從未真正復蘇過。在過去十年的大部分時間內，德國的消費水平一直落后于美國。

The problem is not new. After stagnating for two years, private consumption fell in 2002. In fact, households never really recovered from the reunification- induced boom of the early 1990s, with spending lagging behind the US for much of the decade.

另一方面，德國人收入中儲蓄的部分卻越來越多，2002年德國人的儲蓄率達10.5%，幾乎是美國當年水平的三倍。

Germans, on the other hand, have been putting an ever-larger share of their income aside, with savings rates reaching 10.5 per cent in 2002, almost three times the US level that year.

一些偶爾來德國的人會認為，吝嗇是德國人的典型特征，這種想法也許可以諒解。幾乎在所有生活領域，節儉都被視為一種美德，只有汽車消費除外，因為汽車的價格和性能顯示一個人的社會地位。

Occasional visitors could be forgiven for thinking parsimony is a typically German trait. With the exception of cars - whose price and performance define one's social standing - in almost all areas of life penny-pinching is considered a virtue.

周六早晨，你順路到德國成功的食品折扣店Aldi或Lidl去看看，那里的停車場上肯定停著幾輛保時捷(Porsche)或奔馳(Mercedes)。去年，Saturn推出的市場營銷廣告“節約就是酷”在德國大獲成功。Saturn是德國最大的零售集團麥德龍(Metro)旗下的電子消費品子公司。

Drop by Aldi or Lidl, the successful food discounters, on a Saturday morning and there are bound to be a few Porsches and Mercedes in the car park. Last year's greatest marketing success was the "thrift is cool" campaign run by Saturn, the consumer electronics arm of Metro, Germany's largest retail group.

“就連那些根本不必存錢的人也養成一種買便宜貨的心態，”曼海姆市場心理研究院主管蓋特•古特雅爾(Gert Gutjahr)說，“我把這種現象稱為‘聲援型’購物。這是他們滿足其社會良知的一種方式。”

"Even those who really do not need to be saving any money are developing a bargain-hunting mentality," says Gert Gutjahr, head of the Institute for Market Psychology in Mannheim. "I call it solidarity-shopping. It is a way to appease their social conscience."

但對經濟學家來說，節儉與民族性無關，而是一種理性的表現。德國與歐洲其它國家不同，由于薪水的上漲被稅收和社會保障支出的上升所抵消，可支配收入在過去10年始終停滯不前。在歐盟15國中，如今德國的人均收入排在第11位。

For economists, however, frugality is not about national character but rationality. Unlike the rest of Europe, disposable income in Germany has stagnated in the past 10 years as wage increases were offset by rises in tax and social security contributions. Today Germany ranks 11 out of the 15 European Union states in terms of income per capita.

從上世紀90年代中期起，德國的失業率就以令人擔心的速度上升。與此同時，德國的家庭負債額也在增長，2000年達到頂峰，占可支配收入的112%，與美國當時的狀況類似。花旗集團的何塞•路易斯•阿爾索拉(Jose Luis Alzola)表示，盡管目前德國的利率水平處于歷史低點，但人們再也不像80年代那樣“借錢花”了。

Together with unemployment, which began rising alarmingly in the mid-1990s, household indebtedness also grew, peaking at 112 per cent of disposable income in 2000, similar to that in the US. Even though interest rates are at a historical low, people no longer "borrow to spend" as in the eighties, says Jose Luis Alzola of Citigroup.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的艾爾加•巴奇(Elga Bartsch)則認為：“在上世紀90年代，除英國以外，其他國家的儲蓄率都沒像德國下降的那么快。德國還有不少事要做。”

For Elga Bartsch, economist at Morgan Stanley: "There is no other country apart from the UKswheressavings rates fell so sharply in the nineties. There was some catching up to do."

德國也沒有經歷過英國和美國那樣的房地產熱潮，而正是房地產熱潮保護了英國和美國消費者，使他們免于承受股市崩潰的嚴重后果。不過，即便德國曾經出現房地產熱潮，或許也不會對該國消費有任何助益。相對英國和美國來說，德國擁有房產的人較少，而且由于存在法律限制且手續費較高，因此，德國人要想通過再按揭來兌現房屋價格上漲帶來的收益，這幾乎是不可能的。

Nor did the country experience a property boom of the kind that shielded UK and US consumers from the worst effects of the stock exchange crash. Even if it had, it is doubtful it would have helped. Comparatively few Germans own property and legal barriers and high fees make re-mortgaging - and cashing in on rising home values - almost impossible.

“人們對未來感到恐懼……他們預計自己的收入不會再以像樣的速度持續增長，”巴克萊(Barclays Capital)駐法蘭克福的托爾斯滕•波萊特(Thorsten Polleit)說。

"People are fearful about the future . . . they no longer expect their incomes to continue growing at a decent pace," Thorsten Polleit of Barclays Capital in Frankfurt, sums up.

最近，消費者信心低迷與以前相同。專家表示，同以往一樣，人們對施羅德的結構性改革方案感到擔憂，這完全合理。很多德國人認為，去年在保健、失業和養老金問題上的全面革新，已使人們增加了所需繳納的費用，但在短期內減少了所能獲得的益處。

The latest bout of consumer gloom is no different. As before, the concern surrounding Mr Schroeder's structural reforms is wholly rational, experts say. For many Germans, last year's healthcare, unemployment and pension overhaul have increased contributions and lowered benefits in the short term.

“我們今天看到的消費者信心減弱的局面，在很大程度上是由醫療保險改革的不確定性造成，”捷孚凱的羅爾夫•比爾克(Rolf Buerkl)說，“這場改革的好處尚未顯現，因此，人們把注意力集中在改革的負面影響上。”

"The deterioration in sentiment we see today can be pretty much explained by the uncertainties surrounding the health insurance reform," says Rolf Buerkl of GfK. "The benefits of the reform are not visible yet so attention focuses on the negative aspects."

德國正對其慷慨的社會福利制度進行調整，這最終會對德國經濟形成直接沖擊，因為在該國人均可支配收入中，有近三分之一來自政府撥款，該比例會隨收入的下降而上升。

Adjustments to Germany's generous welfare state are turning out to have a direct impact on the economy since nearly a third of average disposable income in the country comes from government transfers, a proportion that rises as incomes decrease.

德國政府原本預計2004年將減稅220億歐元（合277億美元），后來不得不將該數字削減三分之一，這對提高消費者信心自然無益。減稅措施本來旨在緩解改革導致的痛苦，最終卻產生相反的效果。

It does not help that the �22bn (.7bn) tax cut originally envisaged by the government for 2004 had to be reduced by a third. A measure intended to help appease the pain caused by the reforms ended upshavingsthe opposite effect.

歐洲經濟研究中心(ZEW)的弗里德里希•海涅曼(Friedrich Heinemann)表示，對于普通工薪收入者來說，依照原來的減稅計劃，他們每月等于可增加約20歐元的收入。他說，減稅額下降的消息令人失望，并導致1月份的收入預期指標連續第五個月下降。

For average earners, says Friedrich Heinemann of the ZEW economic research institute, the tax cut will be worth around �20 a month. The disappointing cut helped drive income expectations down in January for the fifth month running, he claims.

捷孚凱的調查結果顯示，德國家庭之所以不消費，主要是因為他們對經濟復蘇的信心減弱。

The GfK poll shows a principal reason households are not spending is their waning faith in a recovery.

但有一點還是得到大家的一致認可，即那些改革措施將有助于確保德國的長期繁榮。

Nevertheless there remains a consensus that the reforms will help ensure Germany's longer-term prosperity.

德累斯登佳華(Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein)的丹尼埃拉•埃奇貝格(Daniela Etschbeger)表示同意：“每個人都知道必須改革。繼續推遲改革非常危險。政府只能硬著頭皮作出一些非常不受歡迎的決定。”

Daniela Etschbeger of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein agrees: "Everybody knows reforms are necessary. It is dangerous to keep on postponing them. Governments just have to bite the bullet and take some very unpopular decisions."

譯者/李功文