里根(Ronald Reagan)總統確實證明了赤字無關緊要嗎？看來，副總統迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)是這樣想的。或者，至少前財長保羅•奧尼爾(Paul O’Neill)是這樣宣稱的。然而，在有關赤字的政見上，副總統也許是對的，但就經濟而言，他錯了。對于里根當政時期赤字的影響，他的看法是錯誤的，對于當前赤字的影響，他的看法也不對。

Did President Ronald Reagan really prove that deficits do not matter? Dick Cheney, the vice-president, seems to think so; or at least that is what Paul O'Neill, the former Treasury secretary, reports. While the vice-president may be right on the politics of deficits, he is wrong on the economics. He is wrong about the impact of the Reagan deficits and he is wrong about the impact of deficits today.

選民可能對赤字不太關心，但他們應該在意。因為現在和將來預期的政府支出和借款，均事關利率。從1981至1992年，即里根和喬治•H•W•布什(George H. W. Bush)當政期間，赤字平均相當于國內生產總值(GDP)的3.75%，政府開支占國內生產總值的22%，通貨膨脹調整后的實際利率約為4%。上世紀90年代，政策的轉變導致政府預算扭虧為盈，2000年盈余達到峰值，相當于國內生產總值的2%，同時政府開支占GDP的比例不足19%，實際利率也隨之降至近2%。

Voters may not care about deficits, but they should. The reason is that government spending and borrowing, both today and what is expected in the future, matter for interest rates. During the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations, from 1981 to 1992, the deficit averaged 3.75 per cent of gross domestic product, government expenditure ran at about 22 per cent of GDP and the inflation-adjusted real interest rate was in the neighbourhood of 4 per cent. In the 1990s, changes in policy brought the budget sintossurplus, peaking at 2 per cent of GDP in 2000, with expenditure below 19 per cent of GDP. With that came real interest rates closer to 2 per cent.

通過降低政府支出，尤其是消除赤字，克林頓(Bill Clinton)政府營造了利率下跌的經濟環境。低利率會刺激投資，并擴大長期經濟增長，這應該是每個人都會關心的。

By lowering government spending, and especially by eliminating deficits, Bill Clinton's administration created an environment in which interest rates fell. Low real interest rates spur investment and increase long-term growth. Everyone should care about that.

2001年，情況發生了變化。減稅措施與經濟低迷共同導致美國財政狀況急劇惡化。目前赤字相當于國內生產總值的5%，而政府開支已接近上世紀80年代的水平。結果，美國政府債務猛增了約1萬億美元。

In 2001 things changed. A combination of tax cuts and a sluggish economy led to a swift deterioration in the US fiscal position. The deficit now stands at 5 per cent of GDP. And expenditure is now nearly at the levels of the 1980s. As a result US government debt has risen by roughly ,000bn.

從長遠來看，局面更加糟糕。在未來75年中，政府短期負債的凈現值將超過50萬億美元，為美國國內生產總值的5倍。政府短期負債的凈現值是我們現在為償付全部現有債務并彌補未來赤字所需籌措的資金。

The long-term picture is much worse. The net present value of the unfunded liabilities over the next 75 years - the amount we would need to have today to finance all the existing debt plus future deficits - is more than ,000bn, five times US GDP.

在未來政府短期負債中，大部分是社會保障和醫療項目開支，其次是減稅和新處方藥項目。有關這些項目的耗資估算與日俱增，但從何處籌集所需資金，卻全無著落。

The bulk of unfunded future liabilities are in the form of Social Security and Medicare programme expenses. Then there are the tax cuts and the new prescription drug programme. Every day brings larger estimates of how costly these are going to be, with no hint as toswheresthe financing will come from.

如果個人出現入不敷出的情況，他們可以借錢或賣東西來填補收支缺口；如果一個國家入不敷出，它還有第三種選擇，那就是印鈔票。印鈔票會導致通貨膨脹，誰都不希望出現這種局面，因而美聯儲不大可能考慮采用這樣的策略。相反，美國正在采用借外債的方法。自布什政府實行減稅措施以來，美國政府債務的增加額，幾乎剛好相當于外國人對美債權凈增加值的預測數字。

An individual living beyond his or her means can either borrow or sell something to make up the difference between income and consumption. A country has a third option, which is to print money. No one wants the inflation that that would cause and the Federal Reserve is very unlikely to accommodate such a strategy. Instead, the US is borrowing from abroad. The increase in government debt since the Bush tax cut almost exactly matches estimates of the increase in net financial claims on the US held by foreigners.

美國對資本輸入求之若渴，這與過去兩年美元大幅貶值有關。外國投資者已開始對美國市場前景感到不安。迄今為止，我們看到全球各金融市場一直在慷慨地向美國提供所需資金，但很難相信他們還會繼續這么做。

The nearly desperate need to import capital is connected to the significant dollar depreciation over the past two years. Foreigners are getting nervous about prospects in the US. It is hard to believe that world financial markets are going to continue supplying the funds needed at the generous rates we have seen up to now.

把美國同一個新興市場國家進行比較最為恰當。該新興國家必須讓外國借款人相信，它的財政政策有著可持續的發展方向，否則，短期債務利率會上升到某個水平，令所有人都明白，償債是不可能的，于是，利率會進一步上升，最終導致匯率體系崩潰。盡管美國遭遇這種災難的可能性很小，但并非完全不可能。

The most apt comparison is with an emerging market country that must convince foreign lenders that its fiscal policy is on a sustainable path. Otherwise, interest rates on current debt rise to levels that make it obvious to everyone that repayment is impossible, interest rates rise even further and eventually the exchange rate collapses. While the probability of such a calamity afflicting the US may be small, it is not zero.

決策者的工作就是要確保這種糟糕狀況不會發生。決策者是我們的金融及經濟體系的風險管理者。央行人士早已明白這點，并采取了相應措施。現在是財政決策者效仿的時候了。

It is the job of policymakers to make sure that such bad things do not happen. They are the risk managers of our financial and economic system. Central bankers have known this for a long time and acted accordingly. It is time fiscal policymakers did the same.

布什政府似乎并不懂得它作為風險管理者應發揮的作用。昨天，布什總統接受了批評意見，在向國會遞交的預算案中，提出一個針對長期債務問題的“解決方案”。該方案稱，政府打算增加當前非國防項目的支出，提高對未來保健福利的承諾金額，并進一步削減稅收。該方案或多或少會使未來5年內的赤字減少一半。但即便如此，也只是推遲了不得不解決根本問題的日子而已。

The Bush administration does not seem to understand its role as risk manager. Bowing to criticism, the president yesterday, in the budget he submitted to Congress, proposed a "solution" to the long-term debt problem. It is to increase spending on current non-defence programmes, increase promises of future healthcare benefits and cut taxes even further. Somehow this will all lead to a halving of the deficit in five years. Even if it does, this just postpones the day of reckoning.

提一個嚴肅的建議，怎樣解決未來75年、而不光是未來5年的財政失衡問題？坦率承認長期問題的嚴重性或許要冒政治風險，但如果什么都不做，那樣冒得風險會更大。

How about making a serious proposal to address the fiscal imbalance for the next 75 years, not just for the next five? Being honest about the size of the long-term problem may be politically risky, but the risks of doing nothing are even bigger. The writer is professor of international economics and finance at Brandeis University

作者是布蘭代斯大學國際經濟與金融學教授。

譯者/張征