摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)收購第一銀行(Bank One)的計劃突出表明，金融服務公司渴望擴充零售銀行業務，但這對投資銀行業務又意味著什么呢?

JP Morgan Chase's plan to buy Bank One highlights the desire for financial services companies to bulk up their retail banking businesses, but what does it mean for investment banking?

當初，大通曼哈頓銀行(Chase Manhattan)的威廉•哈里森(William Harrison)決定收購JP摩根(JP Morgan)，以便在其收購業務的基礎上，創建一家強大的投資銀行，摩根大通就此誕生。當時，首次公開發行、大宗股票買賣，以及安排重大交易都非常盛行。

JP Morgan Chase was created when William Harrison of Chase Manhattan decided to buy JP Morgan so that - at a time when doing initial public offerings, large stock trades, and arranging blockbuster transactions was all the rage - he could create an investment banking powerhouse out of his prey's operations.

這宗價值320億美元的交易在2000年年末完成，原以為是哈里森先生進行的最后一宗大型合并交易。

That bn transaction, completed at the end of 2000, was meant to be Mr Harrison's last mega-merger.

然而，到他著手整合兩家公司時，熊市已成定局。

However, by the time he started integrating the two companies, the bear market was entrenched.

摩根大通的盈利一落千丈，股價也是如此。

JP Morgan's earnings collapsed, as did its stock price.

公司采取與安然(Enron)之類藍籌客戶做生意的策略，但沒有成功。當時，安然是股市的寵兒。

And a strategy of dealing with blue-chip clients, such as the then stock market darling Enron, failed.

2002年的一段時期內，合并后公司的股票交易價格，不及哈里森先生當初支付的收購價，甚至跌破了賬面價值。

For a while in 2002, the combined company was trading for less than the price Mr Harrison paid for the acquisition, and even dipped below book value.

分析師表示，如今摩根大通收購第一銀行，并不表明哈里森先生要放棄投資銀行業務。

Buying Bank One is not meant to be a sign Mr Harrison is throwing in the towel on investment banking, analysts said.

他只是意識到，他需要一項業務與現有業務互補，同時提高盈利的穩定性。

He simply realised that he needed a business that would complement his existing lines and at the same time keep earnings more stable.

于是，第一銀行及其零售分支機構、小企業借貸、信用卡和共同基金業務就登場了。

And then: enter Bank One and its retail branches, small business lending, credit card business, and mutual funds.

但是，收購第一銀行幾乎不會對改善摩根大通的投資銀行業務有何幫助。

But buying Bank One does little to improve JP Morgan's investment banking business.

盡管收購第一銀行將改善摩根大通的資產負債狀況，因為投資銀行通常可利用購得的商業銀行業務，向企業放貸、與企業建立業務關系、并提升這種關系在食物鏈上的位置，但分析師認為，這并不是摩根大通所缺乏的。

While the acquisition will boost JP Morgan's balance sheet, which normally can be used to lend money to companies, build a relationship and move it up the food chain, that was not something analysts felt JP Morgan lacked.

另外，提升客戶在食物鏈上的位置所產生問題是，同客戶的第一步聯系往往是固定收益證券承銷，而摩根大通在這項業務上的狀況并不像在股票和并購業務上那樣糟糕。

Also, the problem with pushing clients up the chain is that the first link-up tends to be fixed-income underwriting, a business JP Morgan is not struggling with as badly as it is with equities and mergers and acquisitions.

伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C Bernstein)分析師布拉德•欣茨(Brad Hintz)說：“此次收購不會賦予摩根大通任何相對其他公司的優勢。它的市場份額一點沒變。摩根大通仍將是一家崇尚并購和股票業務的公司。但這次收購的確將為其提供收益的穩定性。”

Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C Berstein, says: "The acquisition does not give JP Morgan any advantage over anyone else. Market share doesn't change at all. JP Morgan will remain a wannabe in mergers and acquisitions and equities. But what it does do is provide a stability of earnings for them."

任何擁有投資銀行的金融服務公司都在尋求收益穩定性。例如，高盛(Goldman Sachs)和雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)已擴充了資產管理業務，以抵消證券交易、承銷及咨詢業務的盈利波動。

Stability of earnings is something any financial services company with an investment bank is seeking. For instance, Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers have bulked up their asset management businesses to offset swings in profits from trading, underwriting, and advisory work.

雖然設法穩定公司收益并推動股價上漲的策略值得稱道，但欣茨先生表示，這一策略同時也使太多投資銀行家忽略了這個事實，即它們的一些業務及人員水標欠佳，應該撤出市場。

While it is admirable to find a way to smooth out earnings and help boost a company's stock price, Mr Hintz says that the strategy also allows too many investment bankers to ignore the fact that some of their operations and people are not up to scratch and should be retired.

他估計，有太多金融服務公司正在利用自己的招牌業務(無論是交易業務還是合并安排)，來資助其它拖累收益的部門。

He reckons that too many financial services companies are using their marquee businesses - whether trading operations or arranging mergers - to subsidise other units that drag down earnings.

欣茨先生表示，投資銀行有必要承認：它們擁有許多無望改善的低利潤率業務；純粹因為想有一流投行的魅力而保留這些業務，這個想法并不可取。

Investment banks, Mr Hintz says, need to admit to themselves that they own a lot of low-margin businesses that are unlikely to get better and that it is a bad idea to keep them simply because they want the glamour that comes with being a premier investment bank.

“有太多管理團隊對風光的投資銀行業務充滿幻想，因此不愿放棄，”他說。

"We have too many management teams with too many dreams of investment banking grandeur that are unwilling to step away," he says.

“有太多人用一項業務來彌補其它業務發展的不足。”

"Too many people have one business that supplements the development of other businesses."

幾位不愿具名的華爾街資深投資銀行家說，應該有人收購投資銀行或經紀公司，從而降低這個行業的容量。

Several senior Wall Street investment bankers, who declined to be named, said someone should take capacity out of the industry through an acquisition of an investment bank or brokerage.

但他們不確定誰會這樣做，或何時這樣做。

But they are not sure who will do it or when.

首席執行官們都不愿第一個行動，因為在過去10年內，大多數投資銀行的合并結果都令人失望。

No chief executive wants to be the first to jump because most mergers of investment banks in the last ten years have been disappointments.

另外一個問題是，投資銀行業正在復蘇。

Another problem is that the investment banking industry is recovering.

對首次公開發行和并購等高利潤率業務的需求正在升溫。

Demand for high- margin work such as initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions is rising.

所以說，有什么理由出售一項可望改善的業務呢？

So why sell a business that might improve?

欣茨先生說：“很不幸，這是一場消耗戰。”

"Unfortunately, it's a war of attrition," says Mr Hintz.

“這將是一個漫長的、投行人員撤離的過程。但我們知道最終結局如何。參與者會越來越少。”

"This is going to be a long process of people leaving. But we know what the end game is going to be. There are going to be fewer players."

譯者/張征