近幾年來，亞洲公司在清理資產(chǎn)負(fù)債方面，總的來說干得不錯。對亞洲的政府，我們卻無法這么說。

Asian companies have done a good job, by and large, in cleaning up their balance sheets in recent years. The same cannot be said of the region's governments.

在上次金融危機期間，這些政府承擔(dān)了巨額公司債務(wù)。，在亞洲十大經(jīng)濟體中(除日本外)，政府債務(wù)占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的平均比例猛增至60%。這是其中部分原因。

Not least because these governments picked up so many corporate liabilities during the last financial crisis, the average ratio of public debt to gross domestic product has grown rapidly to 60 per cent for Asia's 10 major economies, ex-Japan.

新加坡和菲律賓的比例都超過了100%，僅香港還有凈準(zhǔn)備金。與此同時，日本的比例高達引人注目的160%。而且這些數(shù)字還不包括或有債務(wù)，諸如清理國家銀行體系的費用以及醫(yī)療和養(yǎng)老金體系拖欠的資金等。這些占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比重平均還要再增30%。

Only Hong Kong has net reserves, while the ratios for Singapore and the Philippines are more than 100 per cent. Japan's, meanwhile, is at an eye-watering 160 per cent. And these figures do not include contingent liabilities, such as the costs of cleaning up national banking systems and unfunded health and pension systems, which could be a further 30 per cent of GDP on average.

做個比較：1998年俄羅斯喪失清償能力時，債務(wù)占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比例為51%；最近阿根廷和巴西出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟崩潰時，比例分別為54%和42%。國際貨幣基金組織認(rèn)為，新興市場經(jīng)濟體不應(yīng)讓政府債務(wù)占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比例維持在25%至50%以上。

For a comparison: Russia defaulted in 1998 when its debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 51 per cent, while Argentina collapsed more recently at 54 per cent and Brazil at 42 per cent. The International Monetary Fund argues that emerging market economies should not try to sustain public debt-to-GDP ratios of more than 25 to 50 per cent.

政府債務(wù)的增長也未完全回落到1997至1998年的水平。這越來越應(yīng)歸咎于肆意揮霍的政府開支。亞洲經(jīng)濟體過去在財政方面是全世界最謹(jǐn)慎的，可現(xiàn)在平均預(yù)算赤字卻接近國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的3%，而日本則超過6%。具有諷刺意味的是，根據(jù)馬斯特里赫特條約的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，僅少數(shù)國家仍有資格加入歐盟。

Nor is the increase in public borrowing solely down to the legacy of 1997/98. Profligate government spending is increasingly to blame. Asia's economies, once the world's most fiscally conservative, are now running budget deficits of nearly 3 per cent of GDP on average, while Japan's is at more than 6 per cent. It is ironic to note that only a handful would any longer qualify for European Union entry under the Maastricht criteria.

這種財政紀(jì)律的放松會導(dǎo)致另一場危機嗎？幸運的是，亞洲擁有一些優(yōu)勢可以抵消其弱點。

Could this decline in fiscal rectitude lead to another crisis? Happily, Asia has some strengths that balance its weaknesses.

首先，該地區(qū)大多數(shù)債務(wù)是以本國貨幣計價，為國內(nèi)投資者所有。換句話說，亞洲是自己借自己的錢。理論上，各國中央銀行可以大量印鈔，全部買下這些債務(wù)。

First, most of the region's debt is in domestic currencies, held by domestic investors. In other words, Asia owes the money to itself and, in theory, its national central banks could crank up their printing presses insgroupsto buy up these liabilities.

其次，亞洲本國貨幣的存量非常高。廣義貨幣即M2占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比例，從香港的300%到其他大多數(shù)國家的100%，各不相同，但根據(jù)全球標(biāo)準(zhǔn)都是極高的水平。這意味著，如果政府債務(wù)確實不得不貨幣化，額外的貨幣在不引發(fā)惡性通脹的情況下，或許可以被吸收。

Second, the stock of domestic money in Asia is very high. Broad money or M2-to-GDP ratios vary from nearly 300 per cent in Hong Kong to about 100 per cent for most of the others - enormous levels by global standards. This means that if public debt did have to be monetised, the additional currency could probably be absorbed without triggering hyperinflation.

部分由于貨幣存量偏高，這些國家的名義和實際利率都非常低，政府因而可以從容地償還債務(wù)利息。

Partly as a result of the high monetary stock, both nominal and real interest rates are very low, so governments can comfortably afford to pay the interest on their borrowings.

最后，該地區(qū)的貨幣匯率大多受到升值的壓力，從而使得證券資金涌入，利率走低（因為投資者在賭博，希望從匯率上賺回收入上的損失）。

Finally, the region's exchange rates are mostly under pressure to appreciate, which keeps portfolio inflows high (as investors gamble that they can make up on the exchange rate what they lose in terms of income) and thus rates low.

然而，這些積極因素也許不會永遠存在。例如，一旦美國緊縮貨幣政策，低利率將難以維持。而且，今年該地區(qū)多個國家要舉行大選，預(yù)算赤字必定會廣泛存在。

But these positive factors may not persist forever. Low rates, for example, will be harder to maintain once the US tightens monetary policy. And in a year of multiple elections around the region, budget deficits will certainly remain wide.

某些國家看上去風(fēng)險更大些。瑞士聯(lián)合銀行整理出一個“脆弱指數(shù)”(vulnerability index)，證明日本、印度、菲律賓和印度尼西亞尤其危險。如果算上或有債務(wù)以及日益增長的結(jié)構(gòu)性赤字，中國、臺灣和馬來西亞也將榜上有名。這些都不意味著另一場亞洲金融危機迫在眉睫。但種子正在播下，危機遲早會觸發(fā)。

Certain countries also look more exposed than others. UBS has put together a "vulnerability index", which points to particular danger in Japan, India, the Philippines and Indonesia. Throw in contingent liabilities and rising structural deficits and China, Taiwan and Malaysia creep on to the list. None of this means another Asian financial crisis is imminent. But the seeds are being sown - and sooner or later there will be a trigger.

就政治改革而言，董建華上周發(fā)表的年度施政報告一如既往，乏善可陳。這位香港特首也沒提出多少新的經(jīng)濟設(shè)想。他證實，經(jīng)濟正在復(fù)蘇，長達5年的通貨緊縮終于開始消退，盡管完全消失還要12到18個月的時間。

Tung Chee-hwa's annual policy address last week was the usual damp squib as far as political reform is concerned. Nor did Hong Kong's chief executive have many new thoughts to offer on the economy. Growth was reviving, he confirmed, and after five years deflation was finally on the way out - though it would take another 12 to 18 months to disappear completely.

這一次，董先生或許太悲觀了。如果看一下按年計的變化，最新數(shù)據(jù)表明，2003年11月消費價格指數(shù)仍在以2.4%的速度下滑。但按月計的數(shù)據(jù)則顯示，去年8月，通貨緊縮已觸底。自那以來，消費價格指數(shù)一路上揚。

For once, Mr Tung may have been too pessimistic. If one looks at the year-on-year change, the consumer price index is still showing a decline of 2.4 per cent for November 2003, the most recent figure. But looking at the month-on-month numbers suggests that deflation bottomed out last August. Since then, the CPI has been moving steadily upwards.

真實情況如何呢？通貨緊縮的周期成分幾乎肯定已經(jīng)消失。自從去年夏天非典疫情消退以來，香港經(jīng)濟一直在快速復(fù)蘇。較難衡量的是通貨緊縮的結(jié)構(gòu)性成分。香港與物價低廉的內(nèi)地一體化加深，對其物價走低形成了強大的壓力。

Where does the truth lie? The cyclical element of deflation is almost certainly over. Hong Kong's economy has been recovering rapidly since the Sars shock wore off last summer. Harder to gauge is the structural component of deflation: the fact that closer integration with the cheaper mainland places relentless downward pressure on Hong Kong prices.

不過，即使這些也已出現(xiàn)大幅調(diào)整。以房地產(chǎn)為例，新界的房價現(xiàn)在只有相鄰的深圳的1.5到2倍。如果考慮到紐約房價比新澤西貴4倍，倫敦金融城寫字樓的樓價是金絲雀碼頭的2倍，那么這似乎是可持續(xù)的溢價。

Even here, however, there has already been an enormous adjustment. Take property. House prices in the New Territories are now only 1.5 to two times those in neighbouring Shenzhen. That looks like a sustainable premium when one considers that New York is four times more expensive than New Jersey and offices in the City of London cost twice as much as those in Canary Wharf.

董先生的政府需要操心的事還很多，但通貨緊縮已不再是其中之一。

Mr Tung's government has plenty of things to worry about. But deflation is no longer one of them.

鄧伯樂是《金融時報》亞洲新聞主編。

Dan Bogler is the FT's Asia news editor

daniel.bogler@ft.com

daniel.bogler@ft.com

譯者/安娜