聽一聽紐約第五大道上購物者的口音，就可以切身感受到美元大幅貶值的影響：購買力大增的歐洲人，正蜂擁前來美國購物。

Listen carefully to the crowds shuffling down New York's fifth Avenue, and the more immediate effects of the plummeting dollar are obvious in the voices of European shoppers enjoying dramatic increases in purchasing power.

新年伊始，一對倫敦夫婦走進Saks百貨商店，花了2.5萬美元買了一條鉆石項鏈，引起一場騷動。而一對俄羅斯夫婦由私人導購員帶領，在自己酒店的房間里買下了價值1.4萬美元的名牌服裝，隨后覺得用盧布換美元買裘皮實在劃算，于是又回到店里花了1.4萬美元購物。

One couple from London caused a new year stir at Saks department store by walking in and spending ,000 on a single diamond necklace. A Russian couple spent ,000 on designer clothes with a personal shopper in their hotel room only to decide that you really can buy a lot of fur for the rouble these days and returned to spend another ,000 in the store.

外匯市場動蕩的真正跡象，當然不只體現在貴重項鏈和名牌店的購物袋上。美元貶值對美國零售商的積極影響，雖然對紐約這樣的旅游城市很重要，但與廣大美國消費者面臨進口商品漲價的后果相比，就只是滄海一粟了。要找出貨幣貶值對美國經濟帶來的更深遠的益處，就必須去看一些不那么富麗堂皇的地方。

The real signs of turmoil in the currency markets are not just worn around the neck or carried away in expensive shopping bags. Though significant for tourist destinations such as New York, any positive impact on US retailers is a drop in the ocean compared with the rising cost of imports for domestic consumers. For more significant benefits to the US economy, you have to look in less glamourous places.

在印第安納州和賓西法尼亞州的林區，膠合板的出口已經多年處于茍延殘喘的困境，原因是美元堅挺以及海外低成本家具組裝業的發展�？烧�是這些盈利不大的成熟工業，如家具、化學品、鋼鐵和塑料，最容易受到匯率變動的影響。美國出產的橡木和櫻桃木膠合板，一度受到東歐及奧地利溫帶森林區同類產品的競爭。可以說，漲勢迅猛的歐元，讓許多美國生產商松了一口氣。

In the forests of states such as Indiana and Pennsylvania, the export of wood veneers for the furniture industry had been all but wiped out by years of a strong dollar and the growth of low-cost furniture assembly overseas. But mature, low-margin industries such as furniture, chemicals, steel and plastics are also just the sort of businesses most affected by positive exchange rate movements. Competition for sought-after oak and cherry veneers comes from temperate forests in eastern Europe and Austria, so the soaring euro has come to the rescue for many US producers.

就規模更大的業務而言，美國一些工業巨頭如杜邦(DuPont)、3M、�？松�石油(Exxon)、 康菲石油(ConocoPhillips)和寶潔(Procter & Gamble)，也都各自在最近一次的季度盈利報表中，報告了美元貶值帶來的有利影響。

On a larger scale, industrial giants such as DuPont, 3M, Exxon, ConocoPhillips, and Procter & Gamble all reported a favourable impact from the dollar in their last quarterly earnings statements.

美國公司下一次公布盈利報表時，逐漸復蘇的盈利將使匯率變動帶來的效益更為明顯。2003年前九個月，�？松�石油公司化學品分部的利潤提高了2.02億美元，達到9.56億美元，�？松�認為這是因為匯率變動十分有利。此后，歐元對美元的比價又上升了8%，日元對美元則上升了4.5%。

Currency gains are likely to play an even bigger role in the recovering profits of corporate America during the next earnings season. Exxon credited favourable foreign exchange effects in the first nine months of 2003 for helping lift profits in its chemicals division by m to m. Since then, the euro has risen eight per cent and the yen is up by 4.5 per cent.

由于美元疲軟，第三季度美國有不少公司各分部的銷售額都提高了2%至5%。杜邦公司就是其中之一。而美元的進一步貶值，有望使該公司實現全年扭虧為盈。

DuPont was also typical of companies reporting a lift of 2-5 per cent lift in third-quarter sales across its divisions due to the weaker dollar. Further falls should help tip the companysintos profitability for the year.

另一方面，與其他國家的實業公司相比，美國公司(因本國貨幣貶值)受到的不利影響相對有限，因為包括石油在內的不少進口原材料，也都是用美元計價的。

The usual drawbacks for industrial companies in other countries are limited in the US because many imported raw materials, such as oil, remain priced in dollars.

當然，事物不會都那么簡單。就拿美國的膠合板生產商來說，美元貶值同樣有不利因素：它們的海外客戶在返銷家具成品至美國時，就會遇到匯率難題。更重要的是，與多數美國制造商一樣，該行業的最大競爭威脅來自中國，而中國的貨幣匯率是盯住美元的。

Not everything is that simple. Wood veneer producers, for example, suffer because their customers abroad have currency problems of their own when trying to export finished furniture back to the US. More important, like most US manufacturers, the industry's biggest competitive threat lies in China, whose currency is pegged to the dollar.

可見，即使對于林業產品這樣相對簡單的行業而言，匯率動蕩所產生的各種錯綜復雜的影響，也使近期美元貶值的總體走向難以預料。投資者往往對排除匯率影響的基礎業績更感興趣，因此，3M這樣的大型跨國公司在報表中按當地貨幣分列盈利數據，以期迎合分析師的懷疑眼光。

The complicated impact of currency movements, even in fairly simple industries such as forestry products, makes it hard to predict what the overall effect of recent movements will be. Investors are often more interested in underlying performance, and big multinationals such as 3M break out their earnings in local currencies for the benefit of sceptical analysts.

此外，經濟學家們指出，近期美國出口增長的主要原因，是全球需求的回升，而不是美元貶值。2003年第三季度，美國出口增幅按年率計算高達9.4%。

Economists also argue that the main reason for the recent pick-up in exports - which rose by an annualised 9.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2003 - has been a revival in global demand rather than a fall in the dollar.

根據摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的估算，就出口增長而言，全球需求的重要性比匯率變動大五倍。二十世紀九十年代后期，盡管面臨美元升值帶來的壓力，美國工業還是實現了快速的出口增長。

Morgan Stanley estimates global demand is five times more important for export growth than currency movements and US industry managed to expand exports at a brisk pace during the late 1990s, despite a strong headwind from the rising dollar.

再者，出口也不是美國工業最主要關心的。以2003年第三季度為例，出口額在美國GDP中僅占9.4%。

Nor are exports the dominant concern for US industry - representing 9.4 per cent of GDP in the third quarter.

話說回來，美元貶值肯定能為美國工業創造有利條件。美元升值時期，美國公司曾想盡一切辦法削減成本，而現在它們終于有了一個令人羨慕的選擇：要么減價以搶占市場份額，要么提高利潤率。摩根士丹利研究美國經濟的首席經濟學家理查德•伯納(Richard Berner)估計，美國公司過去一年間實現的30%利潤增長中，有三個百分點應歸功于美元貶值。

Nevertheless, the fall in the dollar is certain to help.shavingstrimmed costs to the bone during the ascent of the dollar, US companies now have an enviable choice of cutting export prices in an effort to pick up market share or fattening margins. Richard Berner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, estimates that the fall in the dollar added three percentage points to the 30 per cent rise US corporate profits over the past year.

據全美制造商協會 (National Association of Manufacturers)預計，至今年第四季度，美國工業出口有望實現12%的同比增長。同時，進口的下降也使其成員制造商得益，因為美元貶值使它們的海外競爭對手陷于不利境地。

By the fourth quarter of this year, the National Association of Manufacturers expects exports should be up by 12 per cent on last year, with its members also benefitting from declining imports as competitors abroad struggle with the other side of the coin.

譯者/和風