截至本周，歐洲經濟和貨幣聯盟就該5歲了，現在就要評論它的長期影響還為時尚早。但對那些正在探討，是否也要建立它們自己的貨幣聯盟的亞洲和其它地區的國家來說，歐元短短的歷史已經向它們提供了一些早期的經驗教訓。

Europe's economic and monetary union is five years old this week, and it is too soon to tell what its long-term impact is likely to be. But for those countries, in Asia and elsewhere, discussing whether to set up their own monetary union, the euro's short history has produced a few early lessons.

    第一，貨幣聯盟主要是一個政治體，而非經濟體。這是目前為止歐元給我們上的最重要的一課。每個成員國都會在某個時刻被要求做出政治犧牲。例如，成員國可能面臨財政政策受約束的局面。歐元到底造成了哪些經濟后果是很難證明的，如果這些后果當真存在的話。要是組建一個貨幣聯盟僅僅是為了求得匯率的穩定，那顯然是小題大做了。

A monetary union is primarily a political, and not an economic project. This is the most important lesson from the euro so far. Each member country will at some point be required to make political sacrifices. For example, members might face constraints on their fiscal policy. The economic consequences of the euro, if they exist at all, are far more difficult to prove. If you merely want exchange rate stability, forming a monetary union is definitely overkill.

    其次，以一個統一的內部市場為起點，隨后再采用單一貨幣。當歐元被啟動時，歐洲還遠未達到單一市場的程度，但它至少覆蓋了絕大多數的制造產品和眾多的服務。如果不形成一個單一市場，貨幣聯盟就很可能在成員國之間引發經濟分歧。單一市場沒有貨幣聯盟可以照行不誤，但貨幣聯盟要是沒有單一市場就會步入險境。歐洲人因為沒有首先統一財政市場而犯下大錯，由此造成的一個負面影響就是，貨幣政策決議竟以不同的速度傳達到歐元區各個區域。

Start off with an internal market before adopting a single currency. Europe's single market was far from complete when the euro was introduced, but at least it covered the vast majority of manufactured goods and many services. Without a single market, there is a greater risk that monetary union provokes economic divergence among its members. A single market can go ahead without a monetary union, but a monetary union without a single market would be risky. The Europeans made the mistake of failing to integrate financial markets first. One negative consequence is that monetary policy decisions are transmitted to various parts of the eurozone at different speeds.

    第三，要有一個時間表。不要完全依賴經濟指標。如果你真的打算加入某一個貨幣聯盟的話，就直說你想什么時候加入，然后努力達到符合成員資格的標準。要不是1999年的最后期限，歐洲人可能至今還在等著何時采用歐元。

Have a timetable. Do not just rely on economic criteria. If you really want to take part in a monetary union, say when you want to do it, and then create the necessary conditions for membership. Without their 1999 deadline, the Europeans would still be waiting to adopt the euro today.

    貨幣聯盟的成員資格只有一個必要標準，即通脹率的集中。其它財務指標，不管是債務還是赤字比率，都不是關鍵。不要理睬像經濟增長、就業水平或是商業圈集中度這類所謂“真正”的標準，它們只有當你不想加入，需要找借口時才真正有用。英國自己為成員資格設定的5項測試就屬于這種情況。如果你不希望某個國家成為貨幣聯盟的一員，不妨直說，不用拿標準來遮遮掩掩。

There is only one necessary criterion for membership of a monetary union: convergence of inflation rates. Other financial criteria - debt or deficit ratios - are not critical for entry. Forget so-called "real" criteria, such as economic growth, employment, or business-cycle convergence. They are only useful if you need an excuse not to join. The UK's self-imposed five tests for membership fallsintosthis category. If you do not want a country to be part of your monetary union, say so outright. Don't hide behind criteria.

    第四，采用一個過渡的貨幣體系。大多數的亞洲貨幣與美元掛鉤，而一個大規模的貨幣聯盟往往采用自由浮動的貨幣。

Adopt an intermediate currency regime. Most Asian currencies are pegged to the dollar. The currency of a large monetary union would normally be free-floating.

    當然，對亞洲來說，以現行的美元掛鉤制作為將來決定換算率的基礎也是有可能的。但作為一個過渡階段，匯率機制有這樣一些優點：匯率在被永久固定之前可以得到檢驗，而且各國央行在過渡期間能夠更緊密地合作。不要小看這種“軟性”的組織因素和人為因素，正是它們為一個成功的貨幣聯盟奠定了基礎。

Of course, in the case of Asia, it might be possible to use the existing dollar pegs as the basis for determining future conversion rates. But as an interim step an exchange rate mechanism has some advantages: exchange rates can be tested before they are permanently fixed, and national central banks co-operate more closely during the interim period. One should not neglect such "soft" institutional and human factors, which underpin a successful monetary union.

    第五，不要讓央行過于獨立。這是歐洲人做錯的一點。歐洲中央銀行(European Central Bank)不僅能夠獨立地制定貨幣政策，而且還能自己選擇目標。如果財政部長有權設定通脹目標而讓歐洲央行來執行的話，歐洲可能就不會有那么多麻煩了。

Do not give excessive independence to the central bank. This is one of the elements that the Europeans got wrong. The European Central Bank is not only independent in the conduct of monetary policy but it can also choose its own targets. The Europeans would have saved themselves a lot of trouble if the finance ministers had been empowered to set a symmetric inflation target for the ECB to implement.

    第六，不要理睬穩定公約，而把精力集中到包括養老金在內的公共財政的長期穩定上。穩定是個復雜的議題，不可能被簡化到諸如赤字率這樣一個數字。不要羞于使用定性指標，即便它們執行起來不那么容易。但一個基本正確的軟性準則總比一個沒有經濟意義的硬性規定來的強。要注意，政策協調是一個貨幣聯盟能否運轉的關鍵。每個成員都必須認同這一點，即經濟政策所涉及的各個方面，從支出、稅收直到對財政、產品和勞務市場的規定，都是大家共同關心的事項。

Forget about a stability pact and focus instead on the long-term sustainability of public finances, including pensions. Sustainability is a complex issue that cannot be reduced to a single number, such as a deficit ratio. Do not shy away from using qualitative criteria, even if they are not that easy to implement. It is better to have a soft rule that is roughly right than a hard rule that makes no economic sense. Be aware that policy co-ordination is an essential ingredient for a monetary union to work. Every member should accept that all aspects of economic policy - from expenditure and taxation to the regulation of financial, product and labour markets - are matters of common concern.

    當然，歐洲貨幣聯盟的問題并不全都適用于其它地區。但如果那些熱心建立下一個貨幣聯盟的人忽視歐洲早期的教訓的話，則必然危機四伏。

Of course, not all of Europe's problems with its monetary union apply to others. But those keen to set up the next monetary union ignore Emu's early lessons at their peril.

    譯者/方志燕