隨著《歐洲穩定與增長公約》的崩潰，歐元區財政政策陷入了一片混亂。但這不僅是歐盟整體面臨的危機。布魯塞爾的唇槍舌戰說明，歐盟各成員國也同樣面臨著艱難抉擇。而且，財政問題不光出現在法國和德國。英國財政大臣戈登•布朗(Gordon Brown)正在竭力平衡收支，為下周發表預算前聲明做準備。而他的美國同行卻干脆放棄了努力。美國政府財政赤字不斷上升，同時還計劃大幅度減稅，而全國50個州幾乎個個都存在財政危機。

The collapse of the stability and growth pact has left European fiscal policy in disarray. But this is not only a crisis for the European Union. Acrimonious debate in Brussels reflects hard choices at the national level. And not just in France and Germany. Gordon Brown, Britain's finance minister, is struggling to balance the books ahead of next week's pre-Budget statement. His US counterparts do not even try. The US has a growing federal deficit, plans for deep tax cuts and fiscal crisis in almost all 50 states.

    近來，私營部門的會計師日子已很難過，而公共部門的會計師也是備感壓力。至少，法德兩國對違背歐盟預算規定的行為并不遮掩。而意大利卻全靠公共財政管理人士耍手腕，才免遭責難。另外，布朗先生利用私人融資方案(PFI)，把大筆公共借款挪至資產負債表外，從而使英國的公共債務維持在較低水平。

Private-sector accountants have had a rough time recently but public-sector accountants have also been under pressure. France and Germany have at least been open in their breach of the EU's budgetary rules. Had it not been for smart footwork by the people who manage its public finances, Italy would have been arraigned too. And Mr Brown has kept Britain's public debt low by taking large amounts of public borrowing off-balance-sheet through the private finance initiative.

    本來，只有安達信(Arthur Andersen)的總部美國才有可能發明出動態記賬法。由于減稅必能推動經濟增長，那么，美國表面上創造的赤字其實就是稅收的增加。這種說法聽上去是不是很耳熟？那是從一些人的說法演變而來的，他們曾說，網站越虧錢前景越光明。

Only the US, home of Arthur Andersen, could have invented dynamic scoring. Since tax cuts are sure to promote growth, the deficits they seem to create are really revenue enhancements. Sounds familiar? This comes from the people who told you that the more money a dotcom was losing, the better were its prospects.

    在全球各地，貨幣政策已經博得信賴，正如財政政策已經不可信一樣。通貨膨脹已經得到遏制，但財政預算卻陷入危機。

Around the world, monetary policy has gained credibility as fiscal policy has lost it. Inflation has been defeated but budgets are in crisis.

    差異在于政治干預程度不同。政治家設立政策框架，讓央行在此框架下履行貨幣政策的日常管理職能，而自己卻欣然抽身退出。央行利用這種自治權樹立了權威、培養出專業技能。但是，政治家不僅對財政政策的具體內容橫加干涉，對其表達方式也是指手畫腳。美國預測的預算目標是建立在匪夷所思的、通過政治手段強加的假設之上。

The difference is the level of political involvement. Politicians have willingly disengaged from the day-to-day management of monetary policy to set a framework within which central banks can perform that task. Central banks have used this autonomy to build authority and expertise. But politicians have engaged not just with the substance of fiscal policy but also with its presentation. US budget projections are based on fantastic assumptions, politically imposed.

    可以設置更靈活的參數來取代《馬斯特里赫特條約》(Maastricht)標準，但這樣的政治機制無法解決上述根本問題。財政政策所需的框架必須具備道德權威，該靈活時就靈活，該嚴苛時就嚴苛，同時還要得到獨立監控。財政政策機制，同美國聯邦儲備委員會或英國央行貨幣政策委員會一樣，應該受到尊重。

A political fix that establishes more flexible parameters to replace the Maastricht criteria will not deal with this underlying problem. Fiscal policy needs a framework with moral authority, flexible when appropriate, rigid when necessary and independently monitored. Mechanisms of fiscal policy should enjoy the respect commanded by the Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England's monetary policy committee.

    成立一個財政政策委員會，這個主意似乎最先由美國經濟學家艾倫•布林德(Alan Blinder)*提出，最近又由經濟研究組織CESifo**在歐洲加以發展。該組織專家眾多，政治獨立，有望逐漸取得與各國貨幣監管機構同樣的合法地位。這個委員會主要負責確定稅收水平，而非稅收結構，以滿足支出決策的資金需要。此外它還須掂量：公共賬目是否確實公正真實。如果該機構因保持獨立而贏得公眾信任，證券市場就將迫使政府重視它的觀點。

The idea of a fiscal policy commission seems to have originated with Alan Blinder, the US economist*, and has recently been developed in Europe by CESifo, the economic research organisation**. Expertly staffed and politically independent, such a body could gradually establish the same legitimacy as agencies of monetary policing. Its primary task would be to define the level - not the structure - of taxation needed to finance expenditure decisions. It would consider whether public accounts did indeed reflect a true and fair view. And as it gained credit for its independence, securities markets would make it hard for governments to ignore what it said.

    由于歐盟采用單一貨幣，因此財政政策都應在國家和國家之上兩個層面得到監督。為使歐元區成為一個整體，有必要成立一個歐洲財政政策委員會，與歐洲央行平行運作，或在歐洲央行管理下運作。它的主要任務將是，評估各國財政政策是否與歐洲央行的通脹目標保持一致。

The EU's common currency requires both supranational and national supervision of fiscal policy. For the eurozone as a whole, a European fiscal policy commission should stand alongside the European Central Bank and perhaps operate under its auspices. Its brief would be to assess the consistency of national fiscal policies with the ECB's inflation targets.

    但是，只有得到各成員國國內類似機構的支持，上述機構才能發揮作用。各國政府決不會將制定稅率的重任委與他人，但可能、也應該委任他人來判斷與計劃支出相應的整體稅收水平。正如貨幣政策機構一樣，最好的財政政策機構也會對能力較弱的財政政策機構施加競爭壓力，并改善它們的技能。

But it will be effective only if supported by similar bodies in individual member states. Governments will never delegate responsibility for setting tax rates. But they could, and should, delegate responsibility for judging the overall tax level appropriate to planned expenditure. As with monetary agencies, the best fiscal agencies would impose competitive pressure on the weaker and enhance their skills.

    如果穩定公約的終結將帶來新的財政政策監控方法，那么，它的終結將是一場勝利，而不是失敗。這種機制布魯塞爾、巴黎和柏林都需要，紐約和華盛頓甚至更需要。

The end of the stability pact will be a victory rather than a defeat if it leads to new ways of monitoring and controlling fiscal policy. Such mechanisms are needed in Brussels, Paris and Berlin. They are needed even more in New York and Washington.

    *“政府是否過于政治化？”《外交事務》，1997年

* 'Is government too political?', Foreign Affairs, 1997

    **歐洲經濟顧問團體(EEAG)2003年歐洲經濟報告

** EEAG Report on the European Economy 2003

    www.johnkay.com

www.johnkay.com

    譯者/江潔