Bernard Yau是一位前國民黨將軍的兒子。他父親是在1949年共產(chǎn)黨取得政權(quán)之前最后一批撤退到臺灣的。Yau先生后來加入美國國籍，定居在夏威夷。現(xiàn)在他回到大陸，是位于成都出口加工區(qū)的四川高龍機械有限公司(Golden Dragon Aerospace)的董事長。

Bernard Yau is a happy man. Son of a nationalist general who was among the last refugees from the victorious communists in 1949, he has come back to the mainland. An American citizen, with a home in Hawaii, he is also chairman of Golden Dragon Aerospace, located in the Chengdu Export Processing Zone.

    Yau先生有理由得意。他的公司創(chuàng)辦只有三年，現(xiàn)在為世界上100座以上的商用客機生產(chǎn)燃油噴嘴。羅爾斯?#32599;伊斯公司(Rolls-Royce's)所需的這種零部件全部由高龍公司提供。高龍也同時向GE公司供應其所需這類產(chǎn)品的60％。當公司于2000年開始運作時，世界上生產(chǎn)這種零部件的企業(yè)有三十幾家。現(xiàn)在僅剩下兩家：高龍公司和一家美國公司。這家美國公司已經(jīng)有點危險了，為什么這么說呢？因為高龍公司的成本只有它的四分之一。

Mr Yau has reason to be happy. His company, founded just three years ago, makes 70 per cent of the world's fuel nozzles for commercial aircraft with more than 100 seats. It supplies 100 per cent of Rolls-Royce's requirements and 60 per cent of General Electric's. When the company started operations in 2000, the world contained three dozen manufacturers of this component. Today, only two are left: Golden Dragon and a fragile US supplier. It is fragile, because Golden Dragon's costs are a quarter of its rival's.

    高龍公司的員工素質(zhì)較高，隊伍穩(wěn)定。雇員的工資相當于當?shù)貒�有企業(yè)兩到三倍。即便如此，生產(chǎn)線工人的月平均工資只有250美元，而月薪1250美元或更少即可招聘到高層員工。高龍公司生產(chǎn)的燃油噴嘴能保證高質(zhì)量，且準時交貨，從不打折扣。用Yau先生的話說，他的公司已經(jīng)現(xiàn)實了“零次品”和“交貨延誤零天”的記錄。Yau先生遇到的只有一個難題，即怎樣面對公司的擴張。今天，公司生產(chǎn)燃油噴嘴，明天，也許會生產(chǎn)別的產(chǎn)品。眼下，高龍公司的年營業(yè)額只有500萬美元。下一年，可能達到1000萬至2000萬美元。

Golden Dragon has a stable, highly qualified labour force, paid two to three times as much as those working in local state-owned enterprises. Even so, the average wage for a production worker is just a month, while the senior people are available at ,250 a month, or less. Fuel nozzles must also be delivered on time and made to high standards. Golden Dragon's are. In Mr Yau's words, his company has achieved "zero defects" and "zero days late" in delivery. Mr Yau confronts only one problem: how to manage expansion. Today, it is fuel nozzles. Tomorrow, it will be other things. Today, Golden Dragon has annual turnover of only m. Next year, it could be anywhere between m and m.

    鄧小平說，不管白貓黑貓，只要逮住老鼠就是好貓。作為國民黨將軍的資本家兒子，毫無疑問，Yau先生是一只不同顏色的貓。但是，有誰在乎呢？他能逮住老鼠，這才是問題的關(guān)鍵。

Deng Xiaoping said that it did not matter whether a cat was black or white, so long as it caught mice. The capitalist son of a nationalist general, Mr Yau is a cat of a decidedly different colour. But nobody minds in the least. He catches mice. That is what matters.

    高龍公司的故事只是中國正在發(fā)生的許多故事的一個縮影。已經(jīng)有許許多多的報道，說中國正在變?yōu)?1世紀的世界工廠。500家外國公司已經(jīng)在成都高新技術(shù)開發(fā)區(qū)投資了15億美元。例如，英特爾正投資3.75億美元，建立一個測試和封裝工廠。

Golden Dragon's story is a microcosm of what is happening in China. Repeated many times over, it is turning Chinasintosthe 21st century's workshop of the world. Five hundred foreign enterprises have invested .5bn in Chengdu's Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone alone. Intel, for example, is investing m in a testing and packaging plant.

    我喜歡數(shù)據(jù)。無論中國的數(shù)據(jù)怎樣不可靠，這些數(shù)據(jù)一定比一個局外人僅僅在中國訪問10天的印象要更可信一些。這是我十年中第三次訪問中國，中國給我留下的印象極為深刻。

I love data. However unreliable China's data may be, they must be more trustworthy than the impressions of an outsider visiting the country for just 10 days. But on this, my third trip to China in 10 years, the impressions have been overwhelming.

    到處可以見到蓬勃發(fā)展的景象。不僅在北京、上海，甚至在四川的省會成都，都可以看到建設(shè)的規(guī)模和速度。四川是中國西南省份，人均省內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值只有上海的六分之一。但在成都這個400多萬人口的城市中，處處是新建的高樓。道路上有無數(shù)的汽車。

The dynamism is to be seen everywhere. It is to be seen in the scale and speed of construction, not just in Beijing and Shanghai but even in Chengdu, capital of Sichuan, a south-western province whose gross domestic product per head is a sixth of Shanghai's. Even Chengdu, a city of little more than 4m people, is full of huge new buildings. It is also full of cars.

    北京現(xiàn)在嚴重塞車。當我6年前訪問北京時，一刻鐘便可以趕到開會地點。現(xiàn)在，同樣的距離需要花兩到四倍的時間。到2007年，中國各類汽車生產(chǎn)能力將達到1500萬輛。這將造成全球產(chǎn)能過剩。在中國，汽車數(shù)量的增速看來要超過中國人修路的能力。北京已經(jīng)開通五環(huán)路。但這還是不夠。

Beijing is now choking on them. When I last visited the city, six years ago, it was possible to reach meetings in a quarter of an hour. Now, the time required for the same journeys is anywhere between two and four times as long. By 2007, Chinese production capacity of all kinds of motor vehicles will be 15m. This threatens a global glut. At home, the growth in the number of vehicles seems certain to outpace even the Chinese ability to put land under tarmac. Beijing already has a fifth ring-road. Even that is not enough.

    高龍公司的故事并不僅僅關(guān)于中國的增長，而且也體現(xiàn)了中國的實用主義方法。共產(chǎn)黨必須領(lǐng)導人們走向繁榮。只要有利于達到此目標的政策便是好的政策。

The story of Golden Dragon does not just tell us about China's dynamism but also about its pragmatism. Communist ideology has not vanished altogether. One can see it in the continuing refusal to grant absolute private ownership of land and the desire to retain substantial state ownership of industry. But the party must provide prosperity. Whatever works towards that end is a good policy.

    當我第一次訪問中國時，我遇到的許多高級官員都是負責傳統(tǒng)黨務工作的。現(xiàn)在，取代他們的是技術(shù)能力更強、更加專業(yè)、通常在國外接受過培訓的官員。這些官員面臨巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。銀行失去償付能力只是一個例子。不難相信，他們的某些努力將不能成功。而且他們會作出某些錯誤的決策。但是，有可能阻礙他們成功的，既不是意識形態(tài)，也不是對世界的無知。

When I first visited the country, many of the top officials I met were traditional party functionaries. Today, their replacements are technically competent, professional and frequently foreign-trained. These officials confront huge challenges. The insolvency of the banks is just one example. It is easy to believe that they will fail in some of their efforts. It is easy, too, to believe that some of their decisions will be mistaken. But neither ideology nor ignorance of the world will be an obstacle to their success.

    如果說蓬勃發(fā)展和實用主義是當代中國兩個明顯的積極特征，那么事情的另一方面也同樣是不言而喻的。在中國整個沿海地區(qū)，有可能會出現(xiàn)世界上最長最大的都市群。中國也可能造成該地區(qū)嚴重的交通擁擠和環(huán)境污染，且不說這還會導致全球二氧化碳排放的巨大增加。

If dynamism and pragmatism are two obvious positive features of contemporary China, the nightmares are equally evident. China could end up creating the world's longest and biggest megalopolis, stretching all the way along its coast. It might generate overwhelming local congestion and pollution, not to mention a huge addition to global emissions of carbon dioxide.

    即使人們不把這些不良后果預測得這么嚴重，但卻不能忽視即將到來的劇變。如果中國在出口方面維持過去十年的增長速度，到2025年時，中國占世界商品出口總額的比重將從目前的大約6％增加到三分之一。屆時，中國將毫無疑問地占有比現(xiàn)在要大得多的比重。

Even if one plays down the nightmares, one cannot ignore the looming upheavals. If China sustained the last decade's growth in export volume, it could generate a third of the world's merchandise exports by 2025, up from about 6 per cent today. It will certainly generate a much bigger share than now.

    同時，劇變也是形容中國國內(nèi)變化的恰當詞匯。目前中國的城市人口大約占40％。國務院發(fā)展研究中心主任王夢奎表示，20年后這個比例將接近60％。這意味著將有3億人從農(nóng)村轉(zhuǎn)移到城市地區(qū)。有人認為，該數(shù)字將接近5億。不管轉(zhuǎn)移多少，中國將不再是一個沿襲了幾千年的農(nóng)業(yè)國家了。這是場真正的“文化大革命”，掀起這場“革命”的不是紅衛(wèi)兵，而是市場。

Upheaval is also the right world for the domestic transformation. Today, China's population is almost 40 per cent urbanised. In 20 years, this proportion will be close to 60 per cent, suggests Wang Mengkui, director of the development research institute of the state council. That would mean movement of some 300m people from rural to urban areas. Some believe this number will be closer to 500m. Either way, China would cease to be the predominantly rural country it has been for millennia. This really is a "cultural revolution", one brought about not by Red Guards but by the market.

    盡管存在各種統(tǒng)計上的困難，中國之行能讓人完全清楚地了解，中國正在發(fā)生的一切不僅是實實在在的，而且除非發(fā)生災難性的大事，也將是無法阻止的。這是十億多人產(chǎn)生的能量。中國官方的目標是，在今后二十年內(nèi)使中國的GDP翻兩番。我不會下相反的賭注。如果政策環(huán)境能夠進一步改善，增長速度很容易比這更快。

A visit to China makes abundantly clear that what is happening here is, for all the difficulties with measurement, not only real but also unstoppable by anything short of a cataclysm. The energies of more than a billion people are now engaged. The Chinese authorities talk of quadrupling GDP over the next two decades. I would not bet against them. If policy improved, growth could easily be faster than that.

    英國作家塞繆爾•約翰遜(Samuel Johnson)說，賺錢本身無可厚非。Yau先生在努力賺錢，同時幫助他的祖國發(fā)展。這也是幾億中國人正在努力做的事情。賺錢本身的確是沒錯的。但是，他們通過賺錢，也在創(chuàng)造革命性的轉(zhuǎn)變。整個世界將不得不逐漸習慣這樣的事實。

Samuel Johnson remarked that a man is never so innocently employed as when he is making money. Mr Yau is endeavouring to make money, while helping his ancestral country develop. So, as best they can, are hundreds of millions of Chinese. The employment is innocent indeed. But it is also creating a revolutionary transformation. The rest of the world will have to get used to that fact. xref martin.wolf@ft.com

    作者簡介：馬丁•沃爾夫(Martin Wolf)是《金融時報》的副編輯(associate editor)和首席經(jīng)濟評論家。他對全球經(jīng)濟有著精辟的深刻分析，獲得了國際上各界廣泛普遍的承認贊賞。最近，在他榮獲2003年度“最佳商務記者獎”評獎中，他獲得了其中的“十年杰出成就獎”等殊榮。沃爾夫先生1971年畢業(yè)于牛津大學，獲經(jīng)濟學碩士。然后，他到在到世界銀行任職工作，并于1974年出任世行資深經(jīng)濟學家。1999年以來，他一直是每年一度的“世界經(jīng)濟論壇”的特邀評委成員。

    martin.wolf@ft.com

    譯者/秋實