有人生來偉大，有人獲得偉大，有人肩負起偉大的使命。就國家規模、經濟成就和對世界經濟開放的程度而言，中國三者兼有。中國幅員遼闊，并在過去20多年中實現了異乎尋常的經濟增長，對世界產生了重要影響。如何對待這個亞洲巨人的崛起，成為我們時代一個無法逃避的問題。

Some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them. By virtue of its size, economic achievements and openness to the world economy, China fallssintosall three categories. It is huge, has managed extraordinary growth for over two decades and has a global impact. Managing the rise of Asia's giant has become an imperative of our era.

    在這一方面，前人的例子并不令人樂觀。當新強人出現時，現有的強權并不甘心，懷疑日增，直至爆發沖突。修西得底斯（Thucydides）描述了類似的悲劇：公元前5世紀發生在斯巴達和雅典之間的伯羅奔尼撒戰爭。在20世紀，挑戰者和現有秩序維護者之間的沖突，造成了兩次世界大戰以及冷戰時期。經過一個世紀奮斗之后，美國這個19世紀的暴發戶，成為21世紀初的“超級強權”。現在美國面臨著潛在的從未有過的最大挑戰者：這個新來者擁有四倍于美國的人口。

Precedents are not encouraging: a rising power emerges; incumbent powers challenge the newcomer; suspicion grows and conflict breaks out. Thucydides wrote about one such calamity: the Peloponnesian war between Sparta and Athens in the fifth century BC. In the 20th century, conflicts between challengers and incumbents created two world wars and a cold war. At the end of a century of struggle, the US, an upstart in the 19th century, has turnedsintosthe "hyperpower" of the early 21st. Now the US confronts potentially the biggest rival of all: a newcomer with more than four times its population.

    幸運的是，美國和新崛起的中國發生嚴重軍事沖突的可能性幾乎不存在。核彈幽靈、美國的常規軍力、對付伊斯蘭恐怖主義的共同利益，最重要的是，兩國對經濟繁榮共同的渴望，足以防止任何形式的神經錯亂。

Fortunately, armed conflict between the US and a rising China hardly seems a serious danger. The spectre of nuclear weapons, the conventional military strength of the US, a common interest in combating Islamist terrorism and, most important, a shared desire for prosperity should suffice to guard against such insanity.

    但是，公開沖突并非唯一的風險。美國的崛起對19世紀末期的自由經濟秩序產生了破壞性的影響。1870年代，源源不斷的廉價谷物引起歐洲的保護主義。這種保護主義的現代版本便是歐洲共同農業政策。美國的貿易政策破壞了英國單方面的自由貿易承諾。美國宏觀經濟波動動搖了金本位制。要不是因為大蕭條，可能也不會出現希特勒和東條英機。

Yet open conflict is not the only risk. The rise of the US had devastating consequences for the liberal economicsgroupsof the late 19th century. The outpouring of cheap grain in the 1870s led to the agricultural protectionism in Europe whose contemporary manifestation is the common agricultural policy. US trade policies undermined the British commitment to unilateral free trade. US macroeconomic instability destroyed the gold standard. Without the great depression, there would have been no Hitler and no Tojo.

    這位有競爭力的新來者也擁有無窮無盡的供給潛力，中國是勞動集約型制造業，就像當年美國的谷物一樣。作為一個貿易強國，中國即將超過日本，在十多年后，會與美國和歐盟并駕齊驅。中國也是一個生產率不斷提高的低通貨膨脹國家，外匯儲備已經達到3800億美元，僅次于日本，位于世界第二。已經有人指責中國向全世界出口通貨緊縮了。

China is for labour-intensive manufactures what the Americas were for grain: a competitive new supplier with nigh-inexhaustible potential. It is on the brink of surpassing Japan as a trading power and, within a decade, will match the US and the European Union. It is a low-inflation country, with soaring productivity and foreign currency reserves that have reached bn, the world's second largest after Japan's. It is already accused of spreading deflation worldwide.

    如今，幸運的是，在中國和美國之間，存在著一種共生關系。中國“出”錢，美國花錢。美國追求擴張性的貨幣政策，而中國在幫美國抑止通貨膨脹。雙方各取所需：美國人花的比他們掙的多，而中國人喜歡儲備帶來的安全感。但是，這種方便的姻緣關系隱含著日后鬧離婚的隱患：美國與中國日益增長的貿易赤字，常常成為美國政治家蠱惑人心的借口。在通貨膨脹的威脅面前，美國的經常帳戶赤字使美元這個主要的世界貨幣十分脆弱。

Today, fortunately, a symbiotic relationship exists between China and the US. The latter spends, while the former lends. The US pursues aggressive monetary easing, while China curbs US inflation. Both sides obtain what they want: Americans spend more than they earn; China enjoys the security of its reserves. But this marriage of convenience contains the seed of a bitter divorce: the growing bilateral US trade deficit with China is open to populist exploitation, while the US current account deficit makes the world's key currency vulnerable to an inflationary collapse.

    即使避免了發生最壞的事情，有兩點也是很清楚的：一是中國必須充分考慮其政策和進步在世界上引起的反響。二是需要賦予中國對世界經濟演進的共同責任。可幸的是，目前世界存在一種制度性框架，這個框架可以容納新生的強權。而一百多年前則沒有這樣的框架。這方面的偉大成就，是美國的功勞，即使現在美國發現由此造成的束縛令其不快。

Even if the worst does not happen, two points are clear: China must take full account of the global repercussions of its policies and its progress; China also needs to be given joint responsibility for the evolution of the world economy. Fortunately, the world possesses an institutional framework within which to accommodate new powers, something lacking a century ago. For that great achievement, the US deserves credit, even if it now finds the resulting constraints irksome.

    中國在處理仍然是西方主導的世界經濟事務中，并不是一個天然的參與者。沒有中國的參與，七國集團發現其重要性在日益減弱。七國集團包括了美國、日本、德國、法國、英國、意大利和加拿大在內的央行行長和財政部長。而“Quad”集團---- 一個由美國、歐盟、日本和加拿大貿易部長組成的非正式集團，甚至更顯荒唐。中國可能還不是成熟的金融強國，因為其貨幣尚不能自由兌換，但是，中國已經是一個貿易強國。

China, a huge, non-western developing country, is far from a natural participant in managing what remains a western-dominated world economy. Yet thesgroups of Seven, which includes the finance ministers and central bank governors of the US, Japan, Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Canada, will find itself increasingly irrelevant without full Chinese participation. The "Quad", an informal grouping of the trade ministers of the US, the EU, Japan and Canada, will be even more absurd. China may not yet be a fully fledged financial power, since it lacks a convertible currency, but it is already a huge trading entity.

    由于中國的戰略極為成功，如果要求對其作出改變，中國政府自然會加以拒絕。但是中國出口的高速增長，似乎走了這樣一條道路，即低估的實際匯率，結果造成外匯儲備的迅速積累，這必然會讓其重要的經濟伙伴感到不悅。中國也積累了回報率很低的美國政府債券，并使國內貨幣控制更為困難。那么中國應當怎樣重估其在全球經濟體系中的優先事宜呢？

The Chinese government will, naturally, resist changing any aspects of its outstandingly successful strategy. But the path of rapid export growth, built on what seems an undervalued real exchange rate and consequent rapid accumulation of foreign currency reserves, is bound to upset important economic partners. It also builds a mountain of low-return US government liabilities and makes domestic monetary control difficult. How then should China reassess its priorities within the global economic system?

    第一，中國應當考慮迅速實現自由貿易，至少在制造業產品領域理應如此。現在，中國制造業產品的加權平均關稅率已經降到7％。作為世界上最富有競爭力的制造業和外國直接投資的吸鐵石，中國有能力把其市場向全世界產品開放。這將有助于提高其非歧視、自由貿易政策的聲譽。這是中國增長所依賴的。這樣做也可能有利于解除貿易保護主義者的武裝，他們對中國的出口產品持抵制態度。甚至還可能提高對其具有社會敏感性的農業部門的保護。如果承諾實現制造業產品的自由貿易，中國便可能在重新啟動多哈談判方面扮演決定性的角色。

First, it should consider a rapid move towards free trade, at least in manufactures. Already its average weighted tariff on manufactures is down to 7 per cent. As the world's most competitive entrantsintosmanufacturing and a magnet for foreign direct investment, it can afford to open its market to the products of the world. This would help give a big boost to non-discriminatory, liberal trade, on which its growth depends; it would help disarm protectionist resistance against its exports; and it would even increase relative protection in its own socially sensitive agricultural sector. Committed to free trade in manufactures, China could play a decisive role in relaunching the Doha round.

    第二，中國積累的外匯儲備使之獲得加快過渡到靈活性匯率機制、金融自由化和貨幣自由兌換的機會。一個仍然存在大量貧困人口的國家，向世界上最富有的國家進行開放型投資，這實在是令人費解的。更不能容忍的是，其得到的回報是接受國的忿恨。更為糟糕的是，這樣做推遲了急需的全球宏觀經濟調整。政策改變不需要在一夜之間現實。但是，考慮怎樣來實施政策改變應當成為亟待優先考慮的事情。

Second, the accumulation of foreign currency reserves presents an opportunity for China to accelerate its move towards exchange rate flexibility, financial liberalisation and a convertible currency. It cannot make sense for a country burdened by vast poverty to make open-ended investments in the world's richest country. Worse, it receives its beneficiary's resentment in return. Worse still, it postpones needed global macroeconomic adjustments. Changes in policy do not need to be made overnight. But consideration of how they are to be executed needs to be an urgent priority.

    對所有政策轉型的相對經濟重要性作出估價并不容易。中國的崛起將挑戰美國在世界舞臺上所起的作用。在過去幾十年中，中國因沉溺于內斗而蒙受恥辱。在鄧小平的領導下，中國轉向復興之路。到上世紀末為止，中國開始擔負起世界責任。偉大的使命現在落到中國的肩上。世界經濟的未來取決于中國以及現有的強權怎樣適應它們的新角色。

All transitions in relative economic importance are difficult. China's rise will rival in significance the arrival of the US itself on the world scene. For many decades, a humiliated China indulged in the politics of resentment. Under Deng Xiaoping, it turned to renewal. By the end of the last century, China had come to bear global responsibilities. Greatness has now come to China. The future of the world economy depends on how both China and the incumbent powers adapt to their new roles.

譯者/秋實