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中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春
上周市場繼續呈現底部震蕩走勢，在周一周二連續探底后周三出現大漲，但隨即再度滑落至1300點以下。藍籌股的表現不一，幾大藍籌股中僅航空板塊表現出較強的持續性。從上周基金的操作來看，基金仍然保持著謹慎態度，倉位總體變化不大，但在各基金之間略有分化。
基金倉位測算顯示，上周五64只開放式基金加權平均倉位為61.78%，比前周的62.26%略降0.48%；封閉式基金方面，上周五加權平均倉位為66.16，比前周的65.55%回升了0.56%。從個別基金的倉位變動來看，基金之間的操作略有分化，倉位略增和倉位略減的基金大約各占一半，但總體倉位變動幅度都比較小。增倉幅度較明顯的是融通成長，倉位由前周的47.53%上升至52.49%；同樣是倉位較輕的基金，中融行業基金倉位則從前周的56.40%下降至50.48%。結合近一段時間基金倉位的上下震蕩以及不時出現的結構調整跡象，似乎可以判斷部分基金進行著高拋低吸的短波段操作。
從上周市場情況來看，在9.14以后的單邊調整突破1300點并呈加速探底走勢后，1300點的底部效應重又顯現，周三市場再度出現大幅普漲的強勁反彈。但與9.14不同的是此次反彈并無明顯的政策面或消息面刺激，因此很快歸于平淡。而在相應時間內基金倉位變動并不大，因此基金主動護盤的可能性較小。這一上一下再次顯示出目前市場的總體格局，向下空間有限，向上動力不足。這也反映在基金的操作上，年底操作總體較為平淡。市場持續在底部區域寬幅震蕩給予了基金充分的持倉結構調整時間，但基金仍然以波段操作為主，表明對未來的調整方向仍未十分明確。首先是著眼于明年的投資策略，板塊效應的削弱使得投資主題仍然較為模糊。其次明年新股詢價制度實行等一系列制度性變化也將使市場面臨價值重估。隨著一批大型公司的上市，市場估值水平將面臨新一輪的結構性調整，基金持倉也存在著進一步調整的壓力，由此導致觀望態度濃厚。
表一：開放式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
融通成長 |
52.49% |
47.53% |
4.96% |
5.02% |
增持跡象 |
鵬華成長 |
64.86% |
61.22% |
3.64% |
3.69% |
倉位穩定 |
普天收益 |
73.44% |
69.98% |
3.46% |
3.50% |
易方達平穩 |
66.56% |
63.47% |
3.10% |
3.15% |
合豐周期 |
69.80% |
66.80% |
3.00% |
3.04% |
寶康消費 |
64.57% |
61.59% |
2.99% |
3.04% |
大成穩健 |
63.90% |
61.03% |
2.87% |
2.92% |
華安創新 |
70.39% |
67.64% |
2.75% |
2.80% |
融通新藍籌 |
65.76% |
63.05% |
2.71% |
2.76% |
長盛成長 |
64.98% |
62.32% |
2.66% |
2.71% |
易方達策略 |
78.15% |
75.62% |
2.53% |
2.57% |
大成價值 |
64.65% |
62.16% |
2.49% |
2.54% |
嘉實增長 |
63.46% |
61.06% |
2.41% |
2.46% |
華夏成長 |
68.24% |
65.87% |
2.37% |
2.42% |
荷銀精選 |
62.83% |
60.60% |
2.23% |
2.28% |
招商股票 |
67.74% |
65.62% |
2.12% |
2.16% |
博時裕富 |
73.42% |
71.35% |
2.08% |
2.12% |
德盛穩健 |
64.20% |
62.18% |
2.02% |
2.07% |
天同 180 |
78.58% |
76.83% |
1.75% |
1.79% |
寶盈鴻利 |
66.08% |
64.37% |
1.71% |
1.76% |
巨田基礎 |
68.39% |
66.78% |
1.60% |
1.65% |
國泰金鷹 |
65.75% |
64.23% |
1.52% |
1.57% |
廣發聚富 |
71.03% |
69.72% |
1.32% |
1.36% |
合豐成長 |
72.48% |
71.25% |
1.23% |
1.28% |
融通 100 |
73.66% |
72.46% |
1.20% |
1.24% |
銀河理財 |
56.30% |
55.36% |
0.94% |
1.00% |
長城久泰 |
73.27% |
72.37% |
0.90% |
0.94% |
博時價值 |
75.34% |
74.61% |
0.73% |
0.77% |
易方達 50 |
75.04% |
74.40% |
0.64% |
0.69% |
銀華優勢 |
70.50% |
69.87% |
0.63% |
0.67% |
金鷹優選 |
77.32% |
76.72% |
0.60% |
0.64% |
嘉實穩健 |
65.69% |
65.35% |
0.34% |
0.39% |
富國動態 |
58.27% |
57.97% |
0.29% |
0.35% |
諾安平衡 |
62.01% |
62.05% |
-0.04% |
0.01% |
長盛動態 |
53.08% |
53.15% |
-0.07% |
-0.01% |
華夏回報 |
56.39% |
56.53% |
-0.15% |
-0.09% |
華安 180 |
74.04% |
74.60% |
-0.56% |
-0.52% |
嘉實服務 |
53.39% |
54.32% |
-0.94% |
-0.88% |
金鷹精選 |
65.74% |
66.86% |
-1.12% |
-1.07% |
寶康靈活 |
55.36% |
56.50% |
-1.13% |
-1.08% |
招商平衡 |
46.45% |
47.64% |
-1.19% |
-1.13% |
德盛精選 |
53.84% |
55.44% |
-1.60% |
-1.55% |
鵬華 50 |
63.74% |
65.35% |
-1.61% |
-1.56% |
合豐穩定 |
67.10% |
68.71% |
-1.61% |
-1.56% |
嘉實成長 |
66.25% |
67.88% |
-1.63% |
-1.59% |
博時精選 |
66.31% |
67.97% |
-1.66% |
-1.61% |
國泰精選 |
63.60% |
65.26% |
-1.66% |
-1.61% |
海富通收益 |
48.65% |
50.48% |
-1.83% |
-1.78% |
天治增長 |
63.50% |
65.64% |
-2.14% |
-2.09% |
景順平衡 |
49.82% |
52.13% |
-2.31% |
-2.26% |
招商先鋒 |
62.99% |
65.36% |
-2.36% |
-2.31% |
南方穩健 |
64.02% |
66.52% |
-2.50% |
-2.45% |
華寶策略 |
62.00% |
64.53% |
-2.53% |
-2.48% |
長城久恒 |
65.34% |
67.98% |
-2.63% |
-2.58% |
銀河穩健 |
64.94% |
67.58% |
-2.64% |
-2.59% |
富國價值 |
69.48% |
72.16% |
-2.69% |
-2.64% |
海富通精選 |
66.04% |
68.76% |
-2.72% |
-2.67% |
景順股票 |
65.76% |
68.52% |
-2.76% |
-2.71% |
融通行業 |
65.85% |
68.72% |
-2.87% |
-2.82% |
景順內需 |
61.59% |
64.59% |
-3.00% |
-2.95% |
國泰穩健 |
63.16% |
66.81% |
-3.65% |
-3.60% |
申萬精選 |
49.64% |
54.21% |
-4.58% |
-4.52% |
泰信策略 |
66.33% |
71.03% |
-4.71% |
-4.66% |
中融行業 |
50.48% |
56.40% |
-5.92% |
-5.86% |
減持跡象 |
加權平均 |
61.78% |
62.26% |
-0.48% |
-0.44% |
倉位穩定 |
*上表數據均依據公開信息測算，參考誤差比例在5%以內，僅供參考。
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至：2004-12-24 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
表二：封閉式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
基金興業 |
67.43% |
62.57% |
4.86% |
4.91% |
倉位穩定 |
基金金鼎 |
69.53% |
65.35% |
4.19% |
4.23% |
基金裕澤 |
67.35% |
63.46% |
3.89% |
3.94% |
基金天華 |
65.23% |
62.35% |
2.89% |
2.94% |
基金安瑞 |
67.52% |
65.20% |
2.32% |
2.37% |
基金景業 |
65.31% |
63.10% |
2.21% |
2.26% |
基金裕隆 |
68.65% |
66.55% |
2.11% |
2.16% |
基金通乾 |
69.77% |
67.66% |
2.11% |
2.16% |
基金興安 |
58.66% |
56.57% |
2.09% |
2.14% |
基金金泰 |
65.32% |
63.25% |
2.08% |
2.13% |
基金裕陽 |
68.66% |
66.59% |
2.07% |
2.12% |
基金科翔 |
68.67% |
66.69% |
1.98% |
2.03% |
基金景博 |
65.47% |
63.55% |
1.93% |
1.98% |
基金安信 |
67.57% |
65.65% |
1.91% |
1.96% |
基金金盛 |
67.57% |
65.68% |
1.89% |
1.94% |
基金久嘉 |
67.57% |
65.69% |
1.88% |
1.93% |
基金銀豐 |
66.47% |
64.68% |
1.79% |
1.84% |
基金普惠 |
66.53% |
65.32% |
1.21% |
1.26% |
基金漢盛 |
69.87% |
68.69% |
1.18% |
1.23% |
基金天元 |
65.70% |
64.57% |
1.13% |
1.18% |
基金安順 |
65.43% |
64.32% |
1.11% |
1.16% |
基金普豐 |
65.43% |
64.35% |
1.09% |
1.14% |
基金通寶 |
67.66% |
66.57% |
1.09% |
1.14% |
基金普華 |
65.44% |
64.35% |
1.08% |
1.13% |
基金興和 |
63.22% |
62.20% |
1.02% |
1.07% |
基金普潤 |
65.45% |
64.55% |
0.91% |
0.96% |
基金豐和 |
67.68% |
66.79% |
0.89% |
0.94% |
基金景陽 |
66.58% |
65.77% |
0.81% |
0.86% |
基金景福 |
64.22% |
63.42% |
0.80% |
0.85% |
基金科訊 |
67.57% |
66.88% |
0.69% |
0.74% |
基金泰和 |
64.43% |
64.35% |
0.09% |
0.14% |
基金開元 |
65.55% |
65.46% |
0.09% |
0.14% |
基金裕華 |
72.11% |
72.21% |
-0.10% |
-0.06% |
基金景宏 |
70.02% |
70.20% |
-0.18% |
-0.14% |
基金安久 |
64.47% |
64.69% |
-0.22% |
-0.17% |
基金科瑞 |
65.62% |
66.25% |
-0.62% |
-0.57% |
基金同智 |
65.63% |
66.26% |
-0.63% |
-0.58% |
基金同盛 |
64.69% |
65.47% |
-0.78% |
-0.73% |
基金科匯 |
67.87% |
68.70% |
-0.83% |
-0.79% |
基金同益 |
62.32% |
63.21% |
-0.89% |
-0.84% |
基金同德 |
70.10% |
71.02% |
-0.92% |
-0.88% |
基金隆元 |
67.89% |
68.88% |
-0.99% |
-0.94% |
基金漢興 |
63.45% |
64.54% |
-1.09% |
-1.04% |
基金金鑫 |
65.68% |
66.77% |
-1.09% |
-1.04% |
基金鴻飛 |
68.79% |
69.88% |
-1.09% |
-1.05% |
基金興科 |
65.69% |
66.88% |
-1.19% |
-1.14% |
基金裕元 |
66.86% |
68.57% |
-1.72% |
-1.67% |
基金金元 |
66.87% |
68.68% |
-1.81% |
-1.76% |
基金興華 |
64.65% |
66.55% |
-1.89% |
-1.84% |
基金漢博 |
63.55% |
65.46% |
-1.91% |
-1.86% |
基金融鑫 |
65.77% |
67.75% |
-1.97% |
-1.93% |
基金久富 |
64.67% |
66.69% |
-2.02% |
-1.97% |
基金漢鼎 |
65.79% |
67.95% |
-2.15% |
-2.10% |
基金鴻陽 |
65.87% |
68.70% |
-2.83% |
-2.79% |
加權平均 |
66.16% |
65.60% |
0.56% |
0.61% |
倉位穩定 |
*封閉式基金由于數據較少可能出現較大的個別誤差；
加權平均倉位參考誤差比例在5%以內。
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至：2004-12-24 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
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