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中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春
上周市場走勢跌宕起伏，雖然以鋼鐵股為代表的低價藍籌股頻頻出現活躍跡象，但大盤仍然圍繞著千三反復爭奪，市場信心仍然不足。從基金的操作來看，上周基金并未有較大規模的倉位異動，總體上倉位保持平穩。這與我們上周的判斷相符，雖然在年底基金已開始為05年的投資重新挖掘和定位行業和個股的投資價值，但其調倉的壓力仍然存在，而主動
做多的意愿仍不強烈。
基金倉位測算顯示，上周五64只開放式基金加權平均倉位為62.26%，比前周的61.46%有一定幅度的回升；封閉式基金方面，上周五加權平均倉位為65.55%，比前周的65.94%略降0.39%。從個別基金的倉位變動來看，上周基金總體上倉位保持平穩，沒有明顯增持和明顯減持的基金。長盛動態精選、景順股票、寶康消費品、申萬巴黎精選等幾只基金倉位增幅在3%以上，相對增持較為明顯。回顧一段時間的基金倉位變化，從市場自11月下旬的反彈高點重新回調以來，基金倉位普遍保持在較高的倉位水平，表明基金目前對市場處于風險較小區域的判斷較為一致，但在同時基金也有明顯的倉位結構調整跡象，表明基金對市場投資方向的判斷并未趨于一致。
從近一段時期的市場情況來看，在市場總體震蕩下行的格局中幾大傳統的基金重倉板塊的頻頻出擊格外引人注目。12月初汽車板塊在長安汽車(資訊 行情 論壇)、江鈴汽車(資訊 行情 論壇)帶動下有所表現，隨后凌鋼股份(資訊 行情 論壇)、西山煤電(資訊 行情 論壇)、華夏銀行(資訊 行情 論壇)等屬于“五朵金花”的品種依次出現回升行情。幾大板塊的回暖似乎表明藍籌股的投資機會正在重新受到主流資金的關注。但從基金的角度來看，目前似乎仍難看到基金已顯露出強烈的做多意愿。臨近年底基金普遍已開始著眼于2005年的投資策略，部分前期估值預期下降明顯的周期型行業如鋼鐵、石化有可能得到重新認識并調高投資預期。但在目前的情況下，基金倉位持續保持在較高水平，因此投資機會的再挖掘很大程度上要通過倉位調整來進行。再加上基金策略普遍傾向淡化行業配置而以個股精選為主，類似去年“五朵金花”全面展開的藍籌行情將很難重現；板塊的群體效應可能在局部顯現，但關注基金策略變化仍應以個股為主。
表一：開放式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
長盛動態 |
53.15% |
49.76% |
3.39% |
3.92% |
倉位穩定 |
景順股票 |
68.52% |
65.15% |
3.36% |
3.84% |
寶康消費 |
61.59% |
58.67% |
2.92% |
3.43% |
申萬精選 |
54.21% |
51.46% |
2.75% |
3.27% |
國泰精選 |
65.26% |
62.56% |
2.69% |
3.19% |
融通新藍籌 |
63.05% |
60.48% |
2.57% |
3.07% |
廣發聚富 |
69.72% |
67.16% |
2.55% |
3.01% |
中融行業 |
56.40% |
53.97% |
2.42% |
2.94% |
融通成長 |
47.53% |
45.28% |
2.25% |
2.76% |
海富通收益 |
50.48% |
48.38% |
2.11% |
2.63% |
國泰金鷹 |
64.23% |
62.34% |
1.89% |
2.38% |
德盛精選 |
55.44% |
53.59% |
1.84% |
2.36% |
嘉實穩健 |
65.35% |
63.50% |
1.85% |
2.34% |
鵬華 50 |
65.35% |
63.51% |
1.84% |
2.32% |
銀河穩健 |
67.58% |
65.75% |
1.82% |
2.30% |
招商先鋒 |
65.36% |
63.56% |
1.80% |
2.28% |
銀河理財 |
55.36% |
53.61% |
1.75% |
2.27% |
諾安平衡 |
62.05% |
60.51% |
1.54% |
2.04% |
寶康靈活 |
56.50% |
54.99% |
1.51% |
2.03% |
融通行業 |
68.72% |
67.18% |
1.53% |
2.00% |
博時精選 |
67.97% |
66.59% |
1.38% |
1.84% |
南方穩健 |
66.52% |
65.22% |
1.30% |
1.77% |
招商平衡 |
47.64% |
46.40% |
1.24% |
1.76% |
華安創新 |
67.64% |
66.39% |
1.25% |
1.71% |
華夏回報 |
56.53% |
55.34% |
1.19% |
1.71% |
海富通精選 |
68.76% |
67.56% |
1.19% |
1.65% |
嘉實服務 |
54.32% |
53.22% |
1.10% |
1.62% |
銀華優勢 |
69.87% |
68.73% |
1.14% |
1.59% |
荷銀精選 |
60.60% |
59.69% |
0.91% |
1.41% |
景順平衡 |
52.13% |
51.28% |
0.85% |
1.37% |
大成穩健 |
61.03% |
60.28% |
0.75% |
1.25% |
泰信策略 |
71.03% |
70.32% |
0.71% |
1.15% |
寶盈鴻利 |
64.37% |
63.71% |
0.66% |
1.15% |
大成價值 |
62.16% |
61.59% |
0.57% |
1.07% |
嘉實增長 |
61.06% |
60.58% |
0.48% |
0.98% |
富國價值 |
72.16% |
71.63% |
0.54% |
0.96% |
德盛穩健 |
62.18% |
61.80% |
0.38% |
0.88% |
易方達 50 |
74.40% |
74.00% |
0.40% |
0.80% |
普天收益 |
69.98% |
69.79% |
0.19% |
0.63% |
金鷹優選 |
76.72% |
77.22% |
-0.50% |
-0.13% |
招商股票 |
65.62% |
66.23% |
-0.61% |
-0.14% |
易方達策略 |
75.62% |
76.20% |
-0.58% |
-0.20% |
天治增長 |
65.64% |
66.43% |
-0.79% |
-0.32% |
華寶策略 |
64.53% |
65.34% |
-0.81% |
-0.34% |
長盛成長 |
62.32% |
63.18% |
-0.87% |
-0.38% |
鵬華成長 |
61.22% |
62.19% |
-0.97% |
-0.48% |
嘉實成長 |
67.88% |
68.83% |
-0.95% |
-0.50% |
巨田基礎 |
66.78% |
67.83% |
-1.04% |
-0.59% |
易方達平穩 |
63.47% |
64.66% |
-1.19% |
-0.71% |
合豐周期 |
66.80% |
68.00% |
-1.20% |
-0.75% |
合豐成長 |
71.25% |
72.47% |
-1.22% |
-0.80% |
國泰穩健 |
66.81% |
68.11% |
-1.30% |
-0.84% |
長城久泰 |
72.37% |
73.66% |
-1.29% |
-0.88% |
景順內需 |
64.59% |
65.95% |
-1.35% |
-0.88% |
華安 180 |
74.60% |
76.03% |
-1.42% |
-1.04% |
天同 180 |
76.83% |
78.28% |
-1.45% |
-1.09% |
博時價值 |
74.61% |
76.12% |
-1.50% |
-1.12% |
富國動態 |
57.97% |
59.73% |
-1.75% |
-1.25% |
金鷹精選 |
66.86% |
68.56% |
-1.70% |
-1.25% |
長城久恒 |
67.98% |
69.75% |
-1.78% |
-1.34% |
博時裕富 |
71.35% |
73.46% |
-2.11% |
-1.71% |
融通 100 |
72.46% |
74.57% |
-2.11% |
-1.71% |
合豐穩定 |
68.71% |
70.92% |
-2.21% |
-1.78% |
華夏成長 |
65.87% |
68.72% |
-2.85% |
-2.40% |
加權平均 |
62.26% |
61.46% |
0.80% |
1.29% |
倉位穩定 |
* 上表數據均依據公開信息測算，參考誤差比例在5%以內，僅供參考。
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至：2004-12-17 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
表二：封閉式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
基金安瑞 |
65.20% |
62.02% |
3.18% |
3.67% |
倉位穩定 |
基金普惠 |
65.32% |
63.23% |
2.10% |
2.58% |
基金景業 |
63.10% |
61.02% |
2.08% |
2.58% |
基金裕隆 |
66.55% |
64.66% |
1.89% |
2.37% |
基金金元 |
68.68% |
66.78% |
1.89% |
2.36% |
基金金鼎 |
65.35% |
63.50% |
1.85% |
2.34% |
基金漢盛 |
68.69% |
66.88% |
1.81% |
2.28% |
基金科瑞 |
66.25% |
64.75% |
1.50% |
1.98% |
基金景福 |
63.42% |
62.22% |
1.20% |
1.69% |
基金裕元 |
68.57% |
67.36% |
1.22% |
1.68% |
基金安順 |
64.32% |
63.20% |
1.12% |
1.61% |
基金同益 |
63.21% |
62.12% |
1.09% |
1.58% |
基金興華 |
66.55% |
65.46% |
1.08% |
1.56% |
基金通乾 |
67.66% |
66.57% |
1.08% |
1.55% |
基金鴻飛 |
69.88% |
68.79% |
1.09% |
1.54% |
基金泰和 |
64.35% |
63.45% |
0.89% |
1.38% |
基金漢博 |
65.46% |
64.56% |
0.89% |
1.37% |
基金普豐 |
64.35% |
63.47% |
0.88% |
1.36% |
基金通寶 |
66.57% |
65.68% |
0.89% |
1.36% |
基金開元 |
65.46% |
64.58% |
0.88% |
1.36% |
基金普華 |
64.35% |
63.55% |
0.81% |
1.29% |
基金金泰 |
63.25% |
62.47% |
0.78% |
1.27% |
基金同盛 |
65.47% |
64.69% |
0.78% |
1.26% |
基金同德 |
71.02% |
70.24% |
0.78% |
1.22% |
基金裕陽 |
66.59% |
65.87% |
0.72% |
1.19% |
基金同智 |
66.26% |
65.68% |
0.57% |
1.05% |
基金融鑫 |
67.75% |
67.48% |
0.27% |
0.73% |
基金興和 |
62.20% |
62.02% |
0.18% |
0.67% |
基金隆元 |
68.88% |
68.75% |
0.12% |
0.57% |
基金裕華 |
72.21% |
72.11% |
0.10% |
0.53% |
基金科翔 |
66.69% |
66.87% |
-0.18% |
0.28% |
基金久富 |
66.69% |
66.90% |
-0.21% |
0.26% |
基金興安 |
65.57% |
65.68% |
-0.11% |
0.06% |
基金漢興 |
64.54% |
65.43% |
-0.88% |
-0.41% |
基金安信 |
65.65% |
66.54% |
-0.89% |
-0.42% |
基金普潤 |
64.55% |
65.46% |
-0.92% |
-0.44% |
基金金鑫 |
66.77% |
67.69% |
-0.92% |
-0.46% |
基金豐和 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
-1.08% |
-0.63% |
基金裕澤 |
63.46% |
64.56% |
-1.11% |
-0.63% |
基金天華 |
62.35% |
63.48% |
-1.13% |
-0.64% |
基金金盛 |
65.68% |
66.80% |
-1.12% |
-0.65% |
基金天元 |
64.57% |
65.70% |
-1.13% |
-0.65% |
基金久嘉 |
65.69% |
66.88% |
-1.19% |
-0.72% |
基金鴻陽 |
68.70% |
70.12% |
-1.42% |
-0.98% |
基金科匯 |
68.70% |
70.21% |
-1.50% |
-1.07% |
基金漢鼎 |
67.95% |
69.46% |
-1.51% |
-1.07% |
基金景宏 |
70.20% |
72.02% |
-1.82% |
-1.40% |
基金景陽 |
65.77% |
67.65% |
-1.89% |
-1.43% |
基金景博 |
63.55% |
65.47% |
-1.93% |
-1.45% |
基金興科 |
66.88% |
68.79% |
-1.91% |
-1.46% |
基金科訊 |
66.88% |
68.80% |
-1.92% |
-1.47% |
基金銀豐 |
64.68% |
66.76% |
-2.08% |
-1.62% |
基金安久 |
64.69% |
66.88% |
-2.19% |
-1.73% |
基金興業 |
62.57% |
65.66% |
-3.09% |
-2.62% |
加權平均 |
65.65% |
65.55% |
0.10% |
0.61% |
倉位穩定 |
*封閉式基金由于數據較少可能出現較大的個別誤差；
加權平均倉位參考誤差比例在5%以內。
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至：2004-12-17 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
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