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中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春
上周市場走勢出現了明顯變化，低價股、重組股等短線行情開始降溫，周四以鋼鐵為首的藍籌板塊大幅上漲一度激活了市場的投資熱情，但在政策面利好和利空的交替作用下市場仍然難以走出不確定格局，周五又以大幅下挫收盤。而從基金的操作來看，上周基金繼續有小幅度的減持跡象，表明基金主動做多的愿望并不強烈。而尤為值得注意的是不少基金
的調倉跡象更加明顯，這表明主流資金對其投資方向仍在探索和調整，由此導致短期內市場運行的方向難以決定。
基金倉位測算顯示，上周五64只開放式基金加權平均倉位為61.46%，比前周的61.97%小幅下降0.51%；封閉式基金方面，上周五加權平均倉位為65.55%，比前周的65.94%略降0.39%。從個別基金的倉位變動來看，上周基金的操作方向增減不一，但總體倉位變動幅度都較小。減持基金的倉位變動幅度比增持基金更為明顯，其中普天收益減持超過5%，而長盛成長、招商股票、長城久恒減持幅度也在4%以上。但在倉位水平變化不大的同時，基金繼續顯示出十分明顯的倉位結構調整跡象。多數基金的凈值變動趨勢與之前發生了較大變化，表明基金在保持倉位的同時在對持倉結構進行積極的調整。
上周的市場情況也在一個側面反映出基金目前以結構調整為主的操作思路。上周四在鋼鐵股放量大漲的帶動下石化、汽車等藍籌板塊紛紛有所表現，但受到政策面的影響又曇花一現，市場對藍籌重新領漲的信心仍不充分。我們認為雖然周四的鋼鐵股行情很可能有部分基金的資金參與，但總體上基金倉位仍是處于調整之中，表明基金判定市場方向并開始積極入市的可能性不大。這種藍籌普漲的行情再度出現雖然有很強的號召力，但總體上并不反映主流資金的操作意愿，因此難以持續。而回顧基金在近兩個月來大盤持續震蕩反復過程中的操作，9月份以后以新基金為主的持續建倉并未帶來顯著的板塊效應，在大盤上下兩難的調整中基金開始放慢建倉步伐甚至小幅減持，同時積極的持倉結構調整表明基金對市場投資主題的認識在不斷地發生改變。由此導致了主流資金難以選擇方向，而市場在各種消息面因素影響下游資主導的格局。但在上周低價股和題材股行情已明顯現出退潮勢頭，藍籌板塊的欲振乏力表明市場仍將在震蕩中探索新的投資主題和方向。
表一：開放式基金倉位測算結果
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基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
鵬華成長 |
62.19% |
59.32% |
2.87% |
3.45% |
倉位穩定 |
合豐穩定 |
70.92% |
68.04% |
2.88% |
3.41% |
大成穩健 |
60.28% |
57.48% |
2.80% |
3.39% |
中融行業 |
53.97% |
51.46% |
2.51% |
3.11% |
銀河理財 |
53.61% |
51.43% |
2.18% |
2.78% |
德盛精選 |
53.59% |
51.47% |
2.12% |
2.72% |
泰信策略 |
70.32% |
68.24% |
2.08% |
2.60% |
景順平衡 |
51.28% |
49.33% |
1.94% |
2.54% |
國泰金鷹 |
62.34% |
60.43% |
1.91% |
2.49% |
銀華優勢 |
68.73% |
67.26% |
1.47% |
2.00% |
銀河穩健 |
65.75% |
64.41% |
1.34% |
1.90% |
博時裕富 |
73.46% |
72.13% |
1.33% |
1.82% |
寶盈鴻利 |
63.71% |
62.48% |
1.23% |
1.79% |
融通行業 |
67.18% |
65.97% |
1.22% |
1.76% |
海富通收益 |
48.38% |
47.33% |
1.05% |
1.65% |
天治增長 |
66.43% |
65.44% |
0.99% |
1.54% |
景順股票 |
65.15% |
64.40% |
0.76% |
1.31% |
天同 180 |
78.28% |
77.44% |
0.84% |
1.27% |
博時精選 |
66.59% |
65.96% |
0.63% |
1.17% |
易方達平穩 |
64.66% |
64.12% |
0.53% |
1.09% |
金鷹優選 |
77.22% |
76.58% |
0.64% |
1.07% |
德盛穩健 |
61.80% |
61.34% |
0.46% |
1.03% |
合豐成長 |
72.47% |
71.94% |
0.53% |
1.02% |
易方達 50 |
74.00% |
73.63% |
0.37% |
0.84% |
華寶策略 |
65.34% |
65.22% |
0.12% |
0.67% |
鵬華 50 |
63.51% |
63.56% |
-0.04% |
0.52% |
融通成長 |
45.28% |
45.72% |
-0.44% |
0.16% |
合豐周期 |
68.00% |
68.45% |
-0.45% |
0.07% |
景順內需 |
65.95% |
66.46% |
-0.52% |
0.02% |
長盛動態 |
49.76% |
50.67% |
-0.92% |
-0.31% |
嘉實增長 |
60.58% |
61.53% |
-0.95% |
-0.38% |
申萬精選 |
51.46% |
52.49% |
-1.03% |
-0.43% |
博時價值 |
76.12% |
77.03% |
-0.92% |
-0.49% |
融通新藍籌 |
60.48% |
61.54% |
-1.07% |
-0.50% |
長城久泰 |
73.66% |
74.66% |
-1.00% |
-0.54% |
華安 180 |
76.03% |
77.02% |
-0.99% |
-0.56% |
融通 100 |
74.57% |
75.66% |
-1.09% |
-0.64% |
諾安平衡 |
60.51% |
61.99% |
-1.48% |
-0.91% |
國泰精選 |
62.56% |
64.06% |
-1.50% |
-0.95% |
大成價值 |
61.59% |
63.18% |
-1.60% |
-1.03% |
招商先鋒 |
63.56% |
65.17% |
-1.61% |
-1.06% |
招商平衡 |
46.40% |
48.08% |
-1.68% |
-1.07% |
華夏回報 |
55.34% |
57.32% |
-1.98% |
-1.39% |
寶康靈活 |
54.99% |
57.17% |
-2.18% |
-1.59% |
嘉實服務 |
53.22% |
55.47% |
-2.25% |
-1.65% |
荷銀精選 |
59.69% |
62.09% |
-2.39% |
-1.83% |
華夏成長 |
68.72% |
71.05% |
-2.33% |
-1.83% |
華安創新 |
66.39% |
68.96% |
-2.57% |
-2.05% |
南方穩健 |
65.22% |
67.86% |
-2.63% |
-2.11% |
嘉實穩健 |
63.50% |
66.17% |
-2.67% |
-2.13% |
寶康消費 |
58.67% |
61.58% |
-2.91% |
-2.34% |
巨田基礎 |
67.83% |
70.69% |
-2.87% |
-2.37% |
海富通精選 |
67.56% |
70.44% |
-2.88% |
-2.37% |
國泰穩健 |
68.11% |
71.10% |
-2.99% |
-2.49% |
金鷹精選 |
68.56% |
71.66% |
-3.10% |
-2.61% |
廣發聚富 |
67.16% |
70.33% |
-3.16% |
-2.66% |
富國價值 |
71.63% |
75.13% |
-3.50% |
-3.05% |
富國動態 |
59.73% |
63.51% |
-3.78% |
-3.22% |
嘉實成長 |
68.83% |
72.56% |
-3.73% |
-3.24% |
易方達策略 |
76.20% |
80.00% |
-3.80% |
-3.41% |
長城久恒 |
69.75% |
73.84% |
-4.08% |
-3.61% |
招商股票 |
66.23% |
70.57% |
-4.34% |
-3.84% |
長盛成長 |
63.18% |
67.86% |
-4.68% |
-4.15% |
普天收益 |
69.79% |
76.58% |
-6.79% |
-6.36% |
減持跡象 |
加權平均 |
61.46% |
61.97% |
-0.51% |
0.06% |
倉位穩定 |
上表數據均依據公開信息測算，參考誤差比例在5%以內，僅供參考。
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
表二：封閉式基金倉位測算結果
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基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
基金漢鼎 |
69.46% |
65.88% |
3.58% |
4.12% |
倉位穩定 |
基金融鑫 |
67.48% |
64.77% |
2.71% |
3.26% |
基金興和 |
62.02% |
60.21% |
1.81% |
2.39% |
基金安瑞 |
62.02% |
60.24% |
1.78% |
2.36% |
基金景宏 |
72.02% |
70.20% |
1.82% |
2.32% |
基金裕元 |
67.36% |
65.64% |
1.72% |
2.26% |
基金安順 |
63.20% |
62.02% |
1.18% |
1.75% |
基金隆元 |
68.75% |
67.54% |
1.22% |
1.75% |
基金漢興 |
65.43% |
64.26% |
1.17% |
1.72% |
基金安信 |
66.54% |
65.42% |
1.12% |
1.67% |
基金景陽 |
67.65% |
66.52% |
1.13% |
1.67% |
基金裕華 |
72.11% |
71.07% |
1.04% |
1.54% |
基金普惠 |
63.23% |
62.27% |
0.96% |
1.53% |
基金興科 |
68.79% |
67.86% |
0.93% |
1.46% |
基金同益 |
62.12% |
61.25% |
0.88% |
1.45% |
基金鴻飛 |
68.79% |
67.87% |
0.92% |
1.45% |
基金通乾 |
66.57% |
65.73% |
0.84% |
1.39% |
基金普潤 |
65.46% |
64.63% |
0.83% |
1.38% |
基金興華 |
65.46% |
64.64% |
0.82% |
1.37% |
基金金鑫 |
67.69% |
66.86% |
0.83% |
1.36% |
基金景業 |
61.02% |
60.25% |
0.78% |
1.36% |
基金科訊 |
68.80% |
67.99% |
0.81% |
1.34% |
基金景博 |
65.47% |
64.74% |
0.73% |
1.28% |
基金景福 |
62.22% |
62.25% |
-0.02% |
0.55% |
基金銀豐 |
66.76% |
67.58% |
-0.82% |
-0.29% |
基金豐和 |
67.87% |
68.70% |
-0.83% |
-0.31% |
基金興業 |
65.66% |
66.55% |
-0.90% |
-0.36% |
基金裕澤 |
64.56% |
65.63% |
-1.07% |
-0.52% |
基金泰和 |
63.45% |
64.53% |
-1.08% |
-0.53% |
基金金元 |
66.78% |
67.84% |
-1.06% |
-0.53% |
基金漢博 |
64.56% |
65.64% |
-1.08% |
-0.53% |
基金興安 |
65.68% |
66.76% |
-1.08% |
-0.54% |
基金通寶 |
65.68% |
66.76% |
-1.09% |
-0.55% |
基金鴻陽 |
70.12% |
71.20% |
-1.08% |
-0.59% |
基金同智 |
65.68% |
66.84% |
-1.15% |
-0.62% |
基金開元 |
64.58% |
65.78% |
-1.20% |
-0.66% |
基金普豐 |
63.47% |
64.68% |
-1.21% |
-0.66% |
基金金盛 |
66.80% |
67.99% |
-1.19% |
-0.66% |
基金天華 |
63.48% |
64.76% |
-1.28% |
-0.73% |
基金天元 |
65.70% |
66.97% |
-1.27% |
-0.74% |
基金金鼎 |
63.50% |
64.97% |
-1.47% |
-0.92% |
基金科翔 |
66.87% |
68.70% |
-1.83% |
-1.31% |
基金漢盛 |
66.88% |
68.75% |
-1.88% |
-1.36% |
基金普華 |
63.55% |
65.45% |
-1.91% |
-1.36% |
基金久嘉 |
66.88% |
68.76% |
-1.88% |
-1.36% |
基金科匯 |
70.21% |
72.07% |
-1.86% |
-1.37% |
基金安久 |
66.88% |
68.78% |
-1.90% |
-1.38% |
基金裕隆 |
64.66% |
66.59% |
-1.93% |
-1.39% |
基金久富 |
66.90% |
68.98% |
-2.08% |
-1.56% |
基金金泰 |
62.47% |
64.65% |
-2.19% |
-1.64% |
基金同盛 |
64.69% |
66.88% |
-2.19% |
-1.65% |
基金同德 |
70.24% |
72.43% |
-2.19% |
-1.70% |
基金科瑞 |
64.75% |
67.47% |
-2.72% |
-2.19% |
基金裕陽 |
65.87% |
68.68% |
-2.81% |
-2.29% |
加權平均 |
65.55% |
65.94% |
-0.39% |
0.15% |
倉位穩定 |
封閉式基金由于數據較少可能出現較大的個別誤差；
加權平均倉位參考誤差比例在5%以內。
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
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