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中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春
上周市場在震蕩中小幅上揚，市場表現較為溫和，藍籌股普遍溫和上漲，而前期表現搶眼的潛藍板塊則繼續震蕩走高。從上周基金的操作來看，總體上基金倉位保持穩定，少部分輕倉基金仍有小幅增倉的跡象。
基金倉位測算顯示，上周五64只開放式基金加權平均倉位為61.93%，比前周的60.80%小幅上升了1.13%；封閉式基金方面，上周五加權平均倉位為65.94%，與前周相比基本持平。從個別基金的倉位變動來看，顯示為增持的基金明顯減少，僅有富國動態一只基金；富國天益價值、天治財富增長、荷銀精選、招商股票和巨田基礎行業等5只基金倉位凈增幅在4%以上。前幾周的華夏回報。此外多數開放式基金倉位保持穩定，未見基金明顯減倉。回顧近幾周來的倉位變化，可以看到富國、招商、銀河等基金公司旗下基金增持較為明顯。從近幾周基金倉位的變動上可以看到基金增倉的步伐正在逐步放緩。新發基金經過一輪持續增倉后倉位水平也有了較大幅度的提高，這與歷年年底基金倉位處于低點有所不同，由此也可能導致行情的展開模式與過去有所不同。
從上周市場情況來看，市場指標股表現平穩，一貫走勢堅挺的二線績優板塊則繼續震蕩走高，市場沒有顯現出明顯的熱點效應，但股價的結構性分化仍然在繼續擴大。由此我們可以大致判斷近一段時間來基金總體的增倉態勢與以往有所不同，拋棄了過去在部分行業和板塊集中建倉的做法，而是在板塊上分散個股上集中。而由此帶來的個股走勢分化則進一步加劇了選股的困惑：在市場公認的績優股已處于股價高位，而股價已明顯下跌的績差股仍不具投資價值的情況下如何挖掘新的投資機會？我們認為未來一段時間市場仍然將難以呈現顯著的板塊效應，投資機會仍然將在股價的結構性變化中。在對目前估值水平進行反思的基礎上，股票估值必然向差別化、細致化的方向發展。
表一：開放式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
富國動態 |
65.05% |
58.66% |
6.39% |
5.88% |
增持跡象 |
富國價值 |
71.41% |
66.09% |
5.32% |
4.86% |
倉位穩定 |
天治增長 |
55.70% |
50.33% |
5.37% |
4.85% |
荷銀精選 |
62.82% |
57.65% |
5.17% |
4.66% |
招商股票 |
72.78% |
68.15% |
4.63% |
4.18% |
巨田基礎 |
70.34% |
65.72% |
4.62% |
4.16% |
招商先鋒 |
69.22% |
64.76% |
4.46% |
3.99% |
金鷹精選 |
71.03% |
66.71% |
4.32% |
3.86% |
金鷹優選 |
75.58% |
71.46% |
4.12% |
3.70% |
景順內需 |
68.72% |
64.88% |
3.85% |
3.37% |
景順平衡 |
57.59% |
53.75% |
3.85% |
3.33% |
合豐成長 |
71.16% |
67.74% |
3.41% |
2.96% |
長盛成長 |
68.65% |
66.14% |
2.51% |
2.05% |
博時精選 |
64.96% |
62.43% |
2.53% |
2.04% |
海富通精選 |
73.77% |
71.31% |
2.46% |
2.04% |
嘉實穩健 |
67.36% |
64.95% |
2.41% |
1.94% |
申萬精選 |
54.29% |
51.97% |
2.33% |
1.81% |
華安 180 |
78.16% |
76.09% |
2.07% |
1.69% |
華夏回報 |
59.03% |
56.99% |
2.04% |
1.53% |
諾安平衡 |
62.59% |
60.60% |
1.99% |
1.49% |
招商平衡 |
50.37% |
48.51% |
1.86% |
1.34% |
嘉實服務 |
58.84% |
57.05% |
1.79% |
1.28% |
德盛穩健 |
58.29% |
56.54% |
1.75% |
1.24% |
大成價值 |
63.02% |
61.31% |
1.71% |
1.22% |
長城久泰 |
76.55% |
75.21% |
1.34% |
0.96% |
寶康消費 |
65.92% |
64.52% |
1.40% |
0.93% |
寶康靈活 |
55.48% |
54.08% |
1.40% |
0.89% |
德盛精選 |
56.70% |
55.30% |
1.39% |
0.88% |
長盛動態 |
42.52% |
41.23% |
1.29% |
0.79% |
國泰精選 |
67.12% |
66.05% |
1.07% |
0.60% |
國泰穩健 |
69.20% |
68.16% |
1.04% |
0.59% |
易方達 50 |
75.09% |
74.15% |
0.95% |
0.55% |
合豐周期 |
70.63% |
69.70% |
0.93% |
0.49% |
海富通收益 |
44.53% |
43.57% |
0.96% |
0.45% |
合豐穩定 |
63.10% |
62.19% |
0.91% |
0.43% |
普天收益 |
72.26% |
71.42% |
0.84% |
0.42% |
銀河理財 |
50.16% |
49.29% |
0.88% |
0.36% |
華夏成長 |
69.08% |
68.28% |
0.80% |
0.35% |
博時價值 |
78.04% |
77.50% |
0.53% |
0.17% |
鵬華 50 |
62.47% |
61.87% |
0.60% |
0.11% |
銀華優勢 |
66.77% |
66.34% |
0.43% |
-0.03% |
國泰金鷹 |
62.10% |
61.71% |
0.39% |
-0.10% |
寶盈鴻利 |
65.82% |
65.66% |
0.16% |
-0.31% |
易方達平穩 |
63.59% |
63.47% |
0.12% |
-0.36% |
天同 180 |
78.87% |
78.99% |
-0.11% |
-0.46% |
嘉實成長 |
68.58% |
68.60% |
-0.02% |
-0.47% |
泰信策略 |
64.94% |
64.97% |
-0.03% |
-0.50% |
長城久恒 |
66.81% |
66.89% |
-0.08% |
-0.54% |
融通 100 |
76.55% |
76.73% |
-0.18% |
-0.55% |
融通成長 |
39.32% |
39.49% |
-0.18% |
-0.67% |
華安創新 |
70.16% |
70.43% |
-0.27% |
-0.70% |
博時裕富 |
75.81% |
76.15% |
-0.34% |
-0.71% |
銀河穩健 |
66.21% |
66.58% |
-0.36% |
-0.82% |
大成穩健 |
61.17% |
61.58% |
-0.41% |
-0.90% |
易方達策略 |
77.75% |
78.55% |
-0.79% |
-1.14% |
融通行業 |
61.18% |
61.88% |
-0.69% |
-1.18% |
華寶策略 |
66.84% |
67.65% |
-0.80% |
-1.25% |
景順股票 |
66.37% |
67.19% |
-0.82% |
-1.27% |
融通新藍籌 |
63.59% |
64.46% |
-0.87% |
-1.35% |
廣發聚富 |
66.86% |
67.99% |
-1.12% |
-1.57% |
南方穩健 |
65.05% |
66.98% |
-1.93% |
-2.39% |
中融行業 |
47.06% |
49.67% |
-2.61% |
-3.13% |
嘉實增長 |
57.55% |
60.58% |
-3.03% |
-3.52% |
鵬華成長 |
54.32% |
58.47% |
-4.15% |
-4.65% |
加權平均 |
61.93% |
60.80% |
1.13% |
0.64% |
倉位穩定 |
上表數據均依據公開信息測算，參考誤差比例在5%以內，僅供參考。
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至：2004-11-19 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
表二：封閉式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
基金安瑞 |
64.00% |
60.03% |
3.98% |
3.48% |
倉位穩定 |
基金裕陽 |
67.54% |
63.76% |
3.78% |
3.30% |
基金裕元 |
64.10% |
61.02% |
3.08% |
2.59% |
基金金盛 |
68.56% |
65.57% |
2.99% |
2.52% |
基金科訊 |
68.57% |
65.67% |
2.90% |
2.43% |
基金漢盛 |
65.25% |
62.47% |
2.78% |
2.29% |
基金景博 |
64.20% |
62.03% |
2.17% |
1.68% |
基金同德 |
73.10% |
71.02% |
2.08% |
1.65% |
基金泰和 |
63.10% |
61.03% |
2.07% |
1.58% |
基金科翔 |
68.68% |
66.80% |
1.88% |
1.42% |
基金安信 |
62.01% |
60.13% |
1.89% |
1.39% |
基金通寶 |
66.47% |
64.68% |
1.79% |
1.32% |
基金同智 |
65.23% |
63.47% |
1.77% |
1.29% |
基金科匯 |
68.70% |
67.02% |
1.68% |
1.22% |
基金安久 |
67.60% |
65.98% |
1.62% |
1.15% |
基金漢博 |
64.27% |
62.67% |
1.60% |
1.11% |
基金興業 |
65.42% |
64.16% |
1.26% |
0.78% |
基金科瑞 |
69.87% |
68.70% |
1.17% |
0.72% |
基金普豐 |
67.66% |
66.65% |
1.02% |
0.56% |
基金豐和 |
70.70% |
69.70% |
0.99% |
0.56% |
基金裕隆 |
68.78% |
67.77% |
1.01% |
0.56% |
基金金泰 |
65.25% |
64.25% |
1.00% |
0.52% |
基金開元 |
67.67% |
66.70% |
0.97% |
0.51% |
基金銀豐 |
67.68% |
66.80% |
0.88% |
0.42% |
基金通乾 |
63.23% |
62.35% |
0.89% |
0.40% |
基金裕華 |
67.69% |
66.87% |
0.81% |
0.36% |
基金興華 |
64.36% |
63.57% |
0.79% |
0.31% |
基金普惠 |
66.59% |
65.89% |
0.70% |
0.24% |
基金同盛 |
67.70% |
67.01% |
0.69% |
0.23% |
基金金元 |
64.42% |
64.25% |
0.18% |
-0.30% |
基金裕澤 |
63.23% |
63.25% |
-0.02% |
-0.50% |
基金鴻飛 |
66.58% |
66.80% |
-0.22% |
-0.68% |
基金安順 |
62.25% |
62.47% |
-0.22% |
-0.70% |
基金景業 |
64.53% |
65.28% |
-0.75% |
-1.22% |
基金普潤 |
63.42% |
64.16% |
-0.74% |
-1.22% |
基金久富 |
67.87% |
68.69% |
-0.82% |
-1.27% |
基金景福 |
64.54% |
65.36% |
-0.82% |
-1.29% |
基金興科 |
65.65% |
66.48% |
-0.83% |
-1.29% |
基金景宏 |
70.10% |
71.01% |
-0.91% |
-1.33% |
基金天華 |
65.66% |
66.56% |
-0.91% |
-1.37% |
基金同益 |
64.55% |
65.45% |
-0.91% |
-1.38% |
基金興安 |
65.66% |
66.59% |
-0.93% |
-1.39% |
基金金鑫 |
65.69% |
66.87% |
-1.18% |
-1.64% |
基金天元 |
68.70% |
70.12% |
-1.42% |
-1.85% |
基金金鼎 |
66.86% |
68.59% |
-1.73% |
-2.17% |
基金漢鼎 |
67.97% |
69.73% |
-1.76% |
-2.20% |
基金鴻陽 |
70.20% |
72.02% |
-1.82% |
-2.24% |
基金融鑫 |
66.87% |
68.70% |
-1.83% |
-2.28% |
基金漢興 |
57.99% |
59.88% |
-1.89% |
-2.39% |
基金隆元 |
63.55% |
65.47% |
-1.92% |
-2.39% |
基金興和 |
61.35% |
63.47% |
-2.12% |
-2.60% |
基金景陽 |
62.47% |
64.66% |
-2.19% |
-2.66% |
基金普華 |
62.47% |
64.69% |
-2.22% |
-2.69% |
基金久嘉 |
65.88% |
68.79% |
-2.91% |
-3.35% |
加權平均 |
65.94% |
65.70% |
0.25% |
-0.22% |
倉位穩定 |
封閉式基金由于數據較少可能出現較大的個別誤差；加權平均倉位參考誤差比例在5%以內。
數據來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至：2004-11-19 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
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