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中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春
在2005年的第一周市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)令人失望，在石化股集體大跌的帶動(dòng)下股指加速下探，在周中反復(fù)反彈后仍然以下跌趨勢(shì)報(bào)收。而以石化為首的藍(lán)籌股成為做空的最大力量，前期表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁的鋼鐵、航空等均出現(xiàn)補(bǔ)跌走勢(shì)。從上周基金的操作來看，不少基金呈現(xiàn)小幅減倉(cāng)跡象，部分基金甚至減倉(cāng)明顯。可見有部分基金資金在盤中加入了殺跌行列，以如此方式進(jìn)
行持倉(cāng)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整將對(duì)市場(chǎng)造成較大沖擊。
基金倉(cāng)位測(cè)算顯示，上周五64只開放式基金加權(quán)平均倉(cāng)位為62.50%，，比前周的62.74%微降了0.24個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；封閉式基金方面，上周五加權(quán)平均倉(cāng)位為66.09%，比前周的66.66%小幅下降0.57%。雖然總體倉(cāng)位水平仍然變化不大，但從個(gè)別基金的倉(cāng)位變動(dòng)來看，不少基金倉(cāng)位顯示出較明顯的減持跡象，開放式基金中尤為突出。普天收益減持幅度13.20%，成為上周減倉(cāng)最明顯的基金；同為鵬華旗下的鵬華行業(yè)成長(zhǎng)也減持了5.66%。此外兩只倉(cāng)位較輕的新基金泰信策略和天治財(cái)富增長(zhǎng)也顯示為減持，表明不少基金對(duì)短期內(nèi)后市的看法又趨于悲觀。但在另一方面，也有少部分基金顯示為倉(cāng)位增加，如巨田基礎(chǔ)行業(yè)基金倉(cāng)位增幅達(dá)4.91%。
從新年第一周的市場(chǎng)跌勢(shì)來看，05年市場(chǎng)一開局就凸顯出諸多不確定性因素對(duì)基金投資帶來的不利影響。在非流通股股權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)讓、中國(guó)石化(資訊 行情 論壇)調(diào)整成品油出廠價(jià)格等消息的影響下，股指大幅跳空低開，齊魯石化(資訊 行情 論壇)、揚(yáng)子石化(資訊 行情 論壇)等甚至罕見地齊齊以跌停開盤。由此帶動(dòng)的藍(lán)籌股普跌使上證指數(shù)(資訊 行情 論壇)一度快速下瀉30點(diǎn)。而從基金的反應(yīng)來看，小幅度減倉(cāng)更像是一種被動(dòng)的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整。去年年底市場(chǎng)的長(zhǎng)時(shí)間震蕩已經(jīng)給基金充分的調(diào)倉(cāng)時(shí)間，但新的不確定性因素出現(xiàn)又改變了部分基金的預(yù)期，于是無奈加入了殺跌行列。由于市場(chǎng)人氣低迷，在成交量并未明顯放大的情況下市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)大跌，做空力量明顯占據(jù)了上風(fēng)。雖然如此，但基金之間一直存在著分歧，這也使多數(shù)基金并未加入殺跌的行列。但若基本面和非基本面的負(fù)面因素逐漸累積，不排除將有更多基金偏向悲觀，這將對(duì)市場(chǎng)帶來較大沖擊。目前困擾大盤的非基本面因素主要包括非流通股轉(zhuǎn)讓的影響等，由于市場(chǎng)普遍擔(dān)心這些因素會(huì)對(duì)二級(jí)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格形成壓制，由于這些因素的不確定性影響仍未消除，多看、少動(dòng)，適時(shí)調(diào)整的防御型策略成為大多數(shù)基金的策略選擇。
開放式基金倉(cāng)位測(cè)算結(jié)果
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基金名稱
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本周持倉(cāng)
比例估計(jì)
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上周持倉(cāng)
比例估計(jì)
|
本周持倉(cāng)
比例變動(dòng)
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本周持倉(cāng)
凈變動(dòng)
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增持狀態(tài)
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巨田基礎(chǔ) |
74.36% |
69.45% |
4.91% |
5.11% |
增持跡象 |
華夏回報(bào) |
60.26% |
56.69% |
3.56% |
3.80% |
倉(cāng)位穩(wěn)定 |
嘉實(shí)服務(wù) |
60.18% |
56.75% |
3.43% |
3.67% |
融通成長(zhǎng) |
58.60% |
55.40% |
3.20% |
3.44% |
德盛精選 |
54.78% |
51.78% |
3.01% |
3.25% |
長(zhǎng)盛動(dòng)態(tài) |
58.62% |
55.74% |
2.88% |
3.12% |
大成穩(wěn)健 |
69.79% |
67.36% |
2.42% |
2.64% |
申萬精選 |
54.60% |
52.29% |
2.31% |
2.56% |
金鷹精選 |
65.62% |
63.58% |
2.04% |
2.26% |
博時(shí)裕富 |
78.24% |
76.55% |
1.69% |
1.87% |
長(zhǎng)盛成長(zhǎng) |
70.21% |
68.74% |
1.47% |
1.68% |
國(guó)泰精選 |
63.01% |
61.65% |
1.36% |
1.59% |
合豐周期 |
73.79% |
72.43% |
1.36% |
1.56% |
銀河穩(wěn)健 |
65.47% |
64.27% |
1.20% |
1.42% |
海富通精選 |
64.83% |
64.32% |
0.51% |
0.73% |
廣發(fā)聚富 |
74.97% |
74.50% |
0.47% |
0.65% |
博時(shí)精選 |
66.92% |
66.49% |
0.43% |
0.65% |
融通新藍(lán)籌 |
70.61% |
70.31% |
0.30% |
0.50% |
諾安平衡 |
67.28% |
67.19% |
0.09% |
0.30% |
嘉實(shí)增長(zhǎng) |
67.07% |
67.09% |
-0.02% |
0.19% |
金鷹優(yōu)選 |
80.00% |
80.00% |
0.00% |
0.16% |
華夏成長(zhǎng) |
67.59% |
67.90% |
-0.31% |
-0.10% |
銀華優(yōu)勢(shì) |
73.91% |
74.39% |
-0.48% |
-0.29% |
長(zhǎng)城久泰 |
73.66% |
74.23% |
-0.57% |
-0.39% |
銀河理財(cái) |
58.07% |
58.75% |
-0.68% |
-0.44% |
南方穩(wěn)健 |
61.87% |
62.55% |
-0.68% |
-0.45% |
景順內(nèi)需 |
62.81% |
63.60% |
-0.79% |
-0.56% |
大成價(jià)值 |
66.86% |
67.70% |
-0.84% |
-0.63% |
博時(shí)價(jià)值 |
75.68% |
76.58% |
-0.90% |
-0.73% |
寶盈鴻利 |
65.47% |
66.41% |
-0.94% |
-0.73% |
海富通收益 |
46.38% |
47.40% |
-1.02% |
-0.78% |
華寶策略 |
64.59% |
65.75% |
-1.16% |
-0.94% |
華安 180 |
74.27% |
75.41% |
-1.14% |
-0.96% |
易方達(dá) 50 |
75.21% |
76.40% |
-1.19% |
-1.01% |
嘉實(shí)成長(zhǎng) |
64.76% |
66.12% |
-1.36% |
-1.15% |
長(zhǎng)城久恒 |
63.27% |
64.67% |
-1.41% |
-1.18% |
融通 100 |
73.27% |
74.66% |
-1.39% |
-1.21% |
合豐成長(zhǎng) |
72.70% |
74.24% |
-1.54% |
-1.36% |
招商先鋒 |
65.39% |
67.03% |
-1.64% |
-1.42% |
招商平衡 |
48.60% |
50.29% |
-1.69% |
-1.45% |
景順股票 |
60.58% |
62.59% |
-2.01% |
-1.78% |
國(guó)泰穩(wěn)健 |
61.27% |
63.51% |
-2.24% |
-2.02% |
易方達(dá)平穩(wěn) |
62.07% |
64.33% |
-2.26% |
-2.03% |
合豐穩(wěn)定 |
62.99% |
65.26% |
-2.27% |
-2.05% |
招商股票 |
68.37% |
70.66% |
-2.30% |
-2.10% |
鵬華 50 |
62.56% |
64.97% |
-2.40% |
-2.18% |
國(guó)泰金鷹 |
60.59% |
63.09% |
-2.50% |
-2.27% |
融通行業(yè) |
62.44% |
64.98% |
-2.54% |
-2.32% |
富國(guó)價(jià)值 |
66.41% |
69.11% |
-2.70% |
-2.49% |
華安創(chuàng)新 |
69.86% |
72.73% |
-2.87% |
-2.68% |
中融行業(yè) |
42.39% |
45.38% |
-2.99% |
-2.75% |
富國(guó)動(dòng)態(tài) |
58.37% |
61.39% |
-3.02% |
-2.79% |
德盛穩(wěn)健 |
61.99% |
65.03% |
-3.04% |
-2.81% |
景順平衡 |
48.66% |
51.85% |
-3.19% |
-2.95% |
易方達(dá)策略 |
72.04% |
75.45% |
-3.41% |
-3.23% |
天同 180 |
75.75% |
79.36% |
-3.61% |
-3.45% |
荷銀精選 |
61.24% |
64.93% |
-3.69% |
-3.47% |
寶康靈活 |
54.02% |
58.09% |
-4.07% |
-3.83% |
嘉實(shí)穩(wěn)健 |
58.28% |
62.59% |
-4.30% |
-4.07% |
寶康消費(fèi) |
65.17% |
69.73% |
-4.56% |
-4.36% |
鵬華成長(zhǎng) |
60.57% |
66.23% |
-5.66% |
-5.44% |
減持跡象 |
泰信策略 |
56.48% |
62.61% |
-6.13% |
-5.90% |
天治增長(zhǎng) |
50.36% |
58.43% |
-8.08% |
-7.84% |
普天收益 |
61.38% |
74.58% |
-13.20% |
-13.01% |
加權(quán)平均 |
62.50% |
62.74% |
-0.24% |
-0.01% |
倉(cāng)位穩(wěn)定 |
* 上表數(shù)據(jù)均依據(jù)公開信息測(cè)算，參考誤差比例在5%以內(nèi)，僅供參考。
資料來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至:2005-01-07 制表：新浪財(cái)經(jīng) 辛淼 |
封閉式基金倉(cāng)位測(cè)算
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉(cāng)
比例估計(jì)
|
上周持倉(cāng)
比例估計(jì)
|
本周持倉(cāng)
比例變動(dòng)
|
本周持倉(cāng)
凈變動(dòng)
|
增持狀態(tài)
|
基金科匯 |
68.68% |
66.79% |
1.89% |
2.11% |
倉(cāng)位穩(wěn)定 |
基金金元 |
67.57% |
65.69% |
1.88% |
2.10% |
基金興安 |
62.06% |
60.59% |
1.47% |
1.70% |
基金漢博 |
67.64% |
66.35% |
1.28% |
1.50% |
基金興和 |
65.43% |
64.32% |
1.11% |
1.33% |
基金普豐 |
67.65% |
66.54% |
1.11% |
1.33% |
基金普華 |
67.65% |
66.54% |
1.11% |
1.33% |
基金久富 |
66.55% |
65.47% |
1.08% |
1.30% |
基金金鑫 |
66.56% |
65.57% |
0.99% |
1.21% |
基金景業(yè) |
65.45% |
64.53% |
0.92% |
1.14% |
基金開元 |
65.46% |
64.55% |
0.90% |
1.12% |
基金融鑫 |
65.46% |
64.58% |
0.88% |
1.10% |
基金金泰 |
64.35% |
63.53% |
0.82% |
1.05% |
基金天元 |
64.36% |
63.57% |
0.79% |
1.01% |
基金天華 |
65.48% |
64.75% |
0.72% |
0.94% |
基金漢鼎 |
67.76% |
67.58% |
0.18% |
0.39% |
基金豐和 |
68.88% |
68.77% |
0.11% |
0.32% |
基金裕澤 |
68.89% |
68.87% |
0.01% |
0.22% |
基金安瑞 |
65.58% |
65.75% |
-0.18% |
0.04% |
基金安信 |
65.58% |
65.76% |
-0.18% |
0.04% |
基金興業(yè) |
68.96% |
69.57% |
-0.62% |
-0.41% |
基金安順 |
66.75% |
67.54% |
-0.79% |
-0.58% |
基金普潤(rùn) |
66.75% |
67.55% |
-0.79% |
-0.58% |
基金景博 |
66.75% |
67.55% |
-0.79% |
-0.58% |
基金安久 |
65.64% |
66.45% |
-0.80% |
-0.59% |
基金科瑞 |
66.76% |
67.56% |
-0.81% |
-0.59% |
基金同盛 |
65.65% |
66.47% |
-0.82% |
-0.61% |
基金景宏 |
71.20% |
72.00% |
-0.80% |
-0.61% |
基金鴻陽(yáng) |
66.76% |
67.59% |
-0.83% |
-0.62% |
基金漢興 |
63.43% |
64.35% |
-0.91% |
-0.69% |
基金興華 |
64.55% |
65.47% |
-0.92% |
-0.70% |
基金普惠 |
65.67% |
66.65% |
-0.99% |
-0.77% |
基金久嘉 |
65.68% |
66.76% |
-1.08% |
-0.87% |
基金科翔 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
-1.08% |
-0.87% |
基金裕華 |
70.12% |
71.21% |
-1.09% |
-0.89% |
基金隆元 |
65.68% |
66.79% |
-1.11% |
-0.89% |
基金裕元 |
64.57% |
65.69% |
-1.12% |
-0.90% |
基金金鼎 |
66.80% |
67.95% |
-1.16% |
-0.95% |
基金鴻飛 |
64.59% |
65.88% |
-1.29% |
-1.07% |
基金裕陽(yáng) |
66.48% |
67.87% |
-1.39% |
-1.18% |
基金景福 |
64.64% |
66.42% |
-1.78% |
-1.56% |
基金同益 |
62.42% |
64.23% |
-1.81% |
-1.59% |
基金銀豐 |
66.87% |
68.66% |
-1.80% |
-1.59% |
基金同德 |
70.20% |
72.01% |
-1.81% |
-1.61% |
基金科訊 |
66.88% |
68.76% |
-1.88% |
-1.67% |
基金裕隆 |
67.99% |
69.87% |
-1.88% |
-1.67% |
基金泰和 |
63.54% |
65.44% |
-1.90% |
-1.68% |
基金興科 |
64.66% |
66.57% |
-1.91% |
-1.70% |
基金金盛 |
65.78% |
67.76% |
-1.98% |
-1.77% |
基金通乾 |
68.71% |
70.68% |
-1.97% |
-1.77% |
基金同智 |
62.46% |
64.56% |
-2.11% |
-1.88% |
基金景陽(yáng) |
62.47% |
64.66% |
-2.19% |
-1.97% |
基金漢盛 |
65.80% |
67.99% |
-2.19% |
-1.98% |
基金通寶 |
65.88% |
68.77% |
-2.89% |
-2.68% |
加權(quán)平均 |
66.09% |
66.66% |
-0.57% |
-0.35% |
倉(cāng)位穩(wěn)定 |
* 封閉式基金由于數(shù)據(jù)較少可能出現(xiàn)較大的個(gè)別誤差；
加權(quán)平均倉(cāng)位參考誤差比例在5%以內(nèi)。
資料來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至:2005-01-07 制表：新浪財(cái)經(jīng) 辛淼 |
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