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中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春
在2004年的最后一周市場表現(xiàn)可謂波瀾不驚，股指在小幅震蕩中持續(xù)滑落，并以接近全周最低點位收盤。市場預期的機構做帳行情并不明顯，僅在個別品種上有所體現(xiàn)。藍籌股的總體表現(xiàn)仍缺乏亮點，但已有比較充分的企穩(wěn)跡象。而從上周基金的操作來看，基金也同樣以謹慎的觀望態(tài)度結束了2004年的操作。上周基金倉位小幅回升，但基金之間的操作仍
然有一定的分化�；鹑匀槐３种斏鲬B(tài)度，倉位總體變化不大，但在各基金之間略有分化。觀望中帶有謹慎樂觀。
基金倉位測算顯示，上周五64只開放式基金加權平均倉位為62.74%，比前周的61.78%提高了0.95個百分點；而考慮到上周大盤下跌2.23%，基金倉位凈提高1.5%，相對來說增持較為明顯。封閉式基金方面，上周五加權平均倉位為66.66%，比前周的66.16%繼續(xù)回升了0.5%。從個別基金的倉位變動來看，不少基金倉位有小幅回升。三只開放式基金諾安平衡、寶康消費和融通新藍籌顯示為增持，此外招商先鋒、招商平衡、銀華優(yōu)勢等6只基金倉位增幅在4%以上。但與此同時基金之間操作也仍現(xiàn)分化，天治財富增長、中融行業(yè)景氣等兩只基金倉位也下降了4%以上。
從上周市場情況來看，基金重倉股的總體表現(xiàn)仍然乏善可陳，但鋼鐵、航空等板塊則持續(xù)著前期的強勢。我們認為基金在年底的操作以倉位調(diào)整為主，由各重倉板塊和龍頭藍籌股的相對強弱大致可以看出基金倉位調(diào)整的方向。但由于基金策略仍然進一步強調(diào)向個股傾斜，板塊效應并不明顯，我們還很難看出基金倉位調(diào)整的清晰方向�；仡櫥鹪�2004年的操作，在年初至4月的行情中基金以去年的行業(yè)景氣操作思路為主，而在4月以后市場的全面下挫則定下了基金在全年的調(diào)整基調(diào)。在弱市下基金的增倉行為并沒有顯著地影響市場，而在幅度不大的幾波反彈行情中基金也獲益有限。
從各基金對2005年的策略展望來看，各基金對主導明年市場的主要因素仍存有分歧；如上投摩根富林明基金認為，2005年主要關注抗周期性的行業(yè)、瓶頸行業(yè)及人民幣升值的長期受益行業(yè)，對銀行業(yè)、零售業(yè)、航空業(yè)、醫(yī)藥業(yè)、化肥業(yè)、食品業(yè)和港口業(yè)等比較看好，對地產(chǎn)業(yè)、汽車業(yè)、電力、能源和原材料等行業(yè)比較看淡。而易方達基金則看好有品牌、有營銷網(wǎng)絡的消費品類生產(chǎn)企業(yè)，堅決看淡汽車股，相對看淡金融股，鋼鐵、石化、電力存在著階段性的機會。各基金之間的分歧決定了短期內(nèi)基金難以形成合力，2005年年初的投資機會仍將在局部得以體現(xiàn)。
表一：開放式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態(tài)
|
諾安平衡 |
67.19% |
62.01% |
5.18% |
5.72% |
增持跡象 |
寶康消費 |
69.73% |
64.57% |
5.16% |
5.67% |
融通新藍籌 |
70.31% |
65.76% |
4.55% |
5.06% |
招商先鋒 |
67.03% |
62.99% |
4.03% |
4.56% |
倉位穩(wěn)定 |
招商平衡 |
50.29% |
46.45% |
3.84% |
4.40% |
銀華優(yōu)勢 |
74.39% |
70.50% |
3.89% |
4.36% |
華寶策略 |
65.75% |
62.00% |
3.75% |
4.28% |
長盛成長 |
68.74% |
64.98% |
3.76% |
4.27% |
嘉實增長 |
67.09% |
63.46% |
3.63% |
4.15% |
大成穩(wěn)健 |
67.36% |
63.90% |
3.46% |
3.98% |
廣發(fā)聚富 |
74.50% |
71.03% |
3.47% |
3.94% |
嘉實服務 |
56.75% |
53.39% |
3.36% |
3.92% |
富國動態(tài) |
61.39% |
58.27% |
3.13% |
3.68% |
博時裕富 |
76.55% |
73.42% |
3.13% |
3.57% |
大成價值 |
67.70% |
64.65% |
3.05% |
3.57% |
融通成長 |
55.40% |
52.49% |
2.91% |
3.47% |
招商股票 |
70.66% |
67.74% |
2.93% |
3.42% |
寶康靈活 |
58.09% |
55.36% |
2.72% |
3.28% |
長盛動態(tài) |
55.74% |
53.08% |
2.66% |
3.22% |
申萬精選 |
52.29% |
49.64% |
2.65% |
3.21% |
合豐周期 |
72.43% |
69.80% |
2.63% |
3.11% |
金鷹優(yōu)選 |
80.00% |
77.32% |
2.68% |
3.08% |
銀河理財 |
58.75% |
56.30% |
2.45% |
3.00% |
華安創(chuàng)新 |
72.73% |
70.39% |
2.33% |
2.81% |
荷銀精選 |
64.93% |
62.83% |
2.10% |
2.63% |
景順平衡 |
51.85% |
49.82% |
2.04% |
2.60% |
景順內(nèi)需 |
63.60% |
61.59% |
2.00% |
2.54% |
合豐成長 |
74.24% |
72.48% |
1.76% |
2.21% |
鵬華成長 |
66.23% |
64.86% |
1.37% |
1.89% |
華安 180 |
75.41% |
74.04% |
1.36% |
1.80% |
易方達 50 |
76.40% |
75.04% |
1.36% |
1.78% |
鵬華 50 |
64.97% |
63.74% |
1.22% |
1.75% |
博時價值 |
76.58% |
75.34% |
1.24% |
1.66% |
普天收益 |
74.58% |
73.44% |
1.14% |
1.58% |
巨田基礎 |
69.45% |
68.39% |
1.06% |
1.55% |
融通 100 |
74.66% |
73.66% |
1.00% |
1.44% |
長城久泰 |
74.23% |
73.27% |
0.96% |
1.41% |
德盛穩(wěn)健 |
65.03% |
64.20% |
0.83% |
1.35% |
天同 180 |
79.36% |
78.58% |
0.78% |
1.16% |
國泰穩(wěn)健 |
63.51% |
63.16% |
0.35% |
0.87% |
華夏回報 |
56.69% |
56.39% |
0.31% |
0.86% |
寶盈鴻利 |
66.41% |
66.08% |
0.33% |
0.84% |
博時精選 |
66.49% |
66.31% |
0.18% |
0.69% |
嘉實成長 |
66.12% |
66.25% |
-0.12% |
0.38% |
華夏成長 |
67.90% |
68.24% |
-0.34% |
0.15% |
富國價值 |
69.11% |
69.48% |
-0.36% |
0.12% |
銀河穩(wěn)健 |
64.27% |
64.94% |
-0.67% |
-0.15% |
長城久恒 |
64.67% |
65.34% |
-0.67% |
-0.16% |
融通行業(yè) |
64.98% |
65.85% |
-0.87% |
-0.36% |
海富通收益 |
47.40% |
48.65% |
-1.26% |
-0.69% |
南方穩(wěn)健 |
62.55% |
64.02% |
-1.47% |
-0.95% |
海富通精選 |
64.32% |
66.04% |
-1.72% |
-1.21% |
合豐穩(wěn)定 |
65.26% |
67.10% |
-1.84% |
-1.34% |
國泰精選 |
61.65% |
63.60% |
-1.95% |
-1.42% |
德盛精選 |
51.78% |
53.84% |
-2.06% |
-1.50% |
金鷹精選 |
63.58% |
65.74% |
-2.16% |
-1.65% |
易方達平穩(wěn) |
64.33% |
66.56% |
-2.24% |
-1.73% |
國泰金鷹 |
63.09% |
65.75% |
-2.67% |
-2.16% |
易方達策略 |
75.45% |
78.15% |
-2.70% |
-2.31% |
嘉實穩(wěn)健 |
62.59% |
65.69% |
-3.10% |
-2.59% |
景順股票 |
62.59% |
65.76% |
-3.17% |
-2.66% |
泰信策略 |
62.61% |
66.33% |
-3.72% |
-3.21% |
中融行業(yè) |
45.38% |
50.48% |
-5.10% |
-4.53% |
天治增長 |
58.43% |
63.50% |
-5.07% |
-4.54% |
加權平均 |
62.74% |
61.78% |
0.95% |
1.50% |
倉位穩(wěn)定 |
* 上表數(shù)據(jù)均依據(jù)公開信息測算，參考誤差比例在5%以內(nèi)，僅供參考。
資料來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至：2004-12-31 制表：新浪財經(jīng) 辛淼 |
表二：封閉式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態(tài)
|
基金漢博 |
66.35% |
63.55% |
2.81% |
3.33% |
倉位穩(wěn)定 |
基金景福 |
66.42% |
64.22% |
2.20% |
2.72% |
基金銀豐 |
68.66% |
66.47% |
2.20% |
2.70% |
基金興業(yè) |
69.57% |
67.43% |
2.15% |
2.65% |
基金安順 |
67.54% |
65.43% |
2.11% |
2.62% |
基金普潤 |
67.55% |
65.45% |
2.09% |
2.60% |
基金景博 |
67.55% |
65.47% |
2.07% |
2.58% |
基金安久 |
66.45% |
64.47% |
1.98% |
2.50% |
基金興安 |
60.59% |
58.66% |
1.93% |
2.48% |
基金景宏 |
72.00% |
70.02% |
1.98% |
2.46% |
基金科瑞 |
67.56% |
65.62% |
1.94% |
2.45% |
基金同益 |
64.23% |
62.32% |
1.91% |
2.44% |
基金同德 |
72.01% |
70.10% |
1.91% |
2.38% |
基金同盛 |
66.47% |
64.69% |
1.78% |
2.30% |
基金漢鼎 |
67.58% |
65.79% |
1.78% |
2.29% |
基金鴻陽 |
67.59% |
65.87% |
1.72% |
2.23% |
基金裕澤 |
68.87% |
67.35% |
1.53% |
2.03% |
基金裕隆 |
69.87% |
68.65% |
1.21% |
1.70% |
基金科訊 |
68.76% |
67.57% |
1.19% |
1.68% |
基金興和 |
64.32% |
63.22% |
1.10% |
1.63% |
基金普豐 |
66.54% |
65.43% |
1.11% |
1.62% |
基金普華 |
66.54% |
65.44% |
1.11% |
1.62% |
基金通寶 |
68.77% |
67.66% |
1.11% |
1.60% |
基金豐和 |
68.77% |
67.68% |
1.09% |
1.58% |
基金泰和 |
65.44% |
64.43% |
1.01% |
1.53% |
基金漢興 |
64.35% |
63.45% |
0.89% |
1.42% |
基金通乾 |
70.68% |
69.77% |
0.91% |
1.39% |
基金興科 |
66.57% |
65.69% |
0.88% |
1.39% |
基金興華 |
65.47% |
64.65% |
0.81% |
1.33% |
基金久富 |
65.47% |
64.67% |
0.80% |
1.31% |
基金金盛 |
67.76% |
67.57% |
0.19% |
0.68% |
基金普惠 |
66.65% |
66.53% |
0.12% |
0.62% |
基金金鑫 |
65.57% |
65.68% |
-0.11% |
0.40% |
基金天華 |
64.75% |
65.23% |
-0.48% |
0.03% |
基金景業(yè) |
64.53% |
65.31% |
-0.78% |
-0.27% |
基金裕陽 |
67.87% |
68.66% |
-0.79% |
-0.31% |
基金科翔 |
67.87% |
68.67% |
-0.80% |
-0.31% |
基金久嘉 |
66.76% |
67.57% |
-0.81% |
-0.32% |
基金裕華 |
71.21% |
72.11% |
-0.90% |
-0.44% |
基金開元 |
64.55% |
65.55% |
-0.99% |
-0.48% |
基金同智 |
64.56% |
65.63% |
-1.06% |
-0.55% |
基金科匯 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
-1.08% |
-0.59% |
基金隆元 |
66.79% |
67.89% |
-1.10% |
-0.61% |
基金裕元 |
65.69% |
66.86% |
-1.17% |
-0.67% |
基金金元 |
65.69% |
66.87% |
-1.18% |
-0.68% |
基金融鑫 |
64.58% |
65.77% |
-1.20% |
-0.69% |
基金金鼎 |
67.95% |
69.53% |
-1.58% |
-1.10% |
基金安瑞 |
65.75% |
67.52% |
-1.77% |
-1.27% |
基金金泰 |
63.53% |
65.32% |
-1.79% |
-1.28% |
基金安信 |
65.76% |
67.57% |
-1.81% |
-1.31% |
基金漢盛 |
67.99% |
69.87% |
-1.88% |
-1.40% |
基金景陽 |
64.66% |
66.58% |
-1.92% |
-1.42% |
基金天元 |
63.57% |
65.70% |
-2.13% |
-1.62% |
基金鴻飛 |
65.88% |
68.79% |
-2.91% |
-2.42% |
加權平均 |
66.66% |
66.16% |
0.50% |
1.01% |
倉位穩(wěn)定 |
* 封閉式基金由于數(shù)據(jù)較少可能出現(xiàn)較大的個別誤差；加權平均倉位參考誤差比例在5%以內(nèi)。
資料來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至：2004-12-31 制表：新浪財經(jīng) 辛淼 |
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