資產分布

　　The global economic outlook remains supportive for financial markets. Whilst it is clear that the US economy has slowed, the rest of the world is continuing to perform solidly, with growth in Emerging Markets leading the way. Inflation remains relatively benign and we expect that monetary policy around the world will remain quite stable

　　with only gradual incremental change through 2007.

　　全球經濟前景對金融市場仍然構成支撐。盡管美國經濟放緩已經定局，其他國家仍然表現良好，新興市場一馬當先。通脹仍相對溫和，我們預計全球貨幣政策在2007年將保持平穩，會有漸進的小幅度變動。

　　The US is on track to achieve a soft landing. The slow down in housing has affected domestic demand in the economy, and US GDP has slowed from over 3.5% growth for the first half of 2006 to around 2.5% for the past 6 months. Despite the general slow down, the positive signs are that US employment remains relatively solid and consumer expenditure is doing well. Business investment has been disappointing over the past 6 months, however there are indications that this maybe turning around. Recent data releases in April and early May for factory orders, business confidence and inventory to shipments ratios are turning stronger. The risk of the US slow down turning into an outright recession exists, but at this stage we would place only a small probability on such a risk.

　　美國經濟正走向軟著陸。房產市場放緩已經對國內需求造成了影響，美國GDP增長率從2006年上半年的3.5%下滑到過去六個月的2.5%。除了整體放緩之外，積極的信號則包括美國就業率仍相對景氣而消費者支出也在造好。過去6個月商業投資讓人失望，不過也有跡象顯示情況正在扭轉。4月份和5月初公布的數據顯示，工廠訂單、商業信心和庫存貨運比等數字都在走強。美國經濟的放緩演變成一次大蕭條的可能性是存在的，但現階段我們認為這種風險發生的可能性比較低。

　　Outside of the US, the economic picture is positive. European activity continues to roll on at a solid pace with European GDP likely to expand by close to 3% this year. Europe is seeing strong demand across both consumer and business activity. Unemployment is declining in Europe and is supporting general confidence. In Japan, economic data remains somewhat sluggish. The economy is likely to expand at around 2%, which is not bad growth for Japan, but with a general improvement in structural conditions in Japan, at this stage of the cycle Japan should be growing at an even stronger rate.

　　除美國以外，各地經濟形勢比較正面。歐洲經濟繼續穩步上升，歐洲GDP增速今年有可能接近3%，當地消費和商業需求都很強勁，失業率下降對整體信心產生了支撐作用。在日本，經濟數據仍顯得有些落后。今年經濟增速可能會達到2%，這對日本來說是一個不錯的增長，但考慮到結構性條件的全面改善，處在這一周期階段的日本經濟應該有更為強勁的增長。

　　Emerging market activity is solid, led by China which has seen GDP expand at over 11% in the first quarter. India, the rest of Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe are

　　also performing well. The challenge in emerging markets is to contain the level of growth in order to prevent overheating. We have seen numerous tightening measures this year in China and India where interest rates were lifted and bank reserve requirements tightened. And rates are higher in Mexico and a number of other economies. We see little risk of a major deterioration in emerging markets growth as generally policy is not restrictive in any of the major economies and with some exceptions like India, there are no real threats from rising inflation.

　　新興市場狀況穩固，中國起了引領作用，第一季度GDP增長率超過11%。印度、亞洲其他地區、拉丁美洲以及東歐都有不俗表現。新興市場面臨的挑戰是適度控制增長的水平以免出現經濟過熱。我們已經看到今年以來中國和印度紛紛出臺緊縮措施，包括加息和提高存款準備金率。墨西哥和其他多個經濟體都提高了利率。新興市場增長不太可能出現大幅度回調，因為基本上主要國家的政策都不是約束性的，而在一些例外的國家如印度，通脹上升并不具備真正的威脅。

　　The outlook for equity markets is positive. In a soft landing environment that we are seeing in the US, markets have historically done well. This is because in a soft landing, interest rates stay steady or even decline and growth whilst being softer is still generally positive. This is what we are seeing in the US with first quarter profit results showing year on year growth of around 8%, significantly ahead of investor expectations which prior to the earnings season were for 3% growth. Outside of the

　　US, conditions are even stronger due to better growth prospects but with relatively contained interest rate policy. Valuation levels remain reasonable. Whilst we have seen strong equity market performance and many markets are reaching new highs, earnings growth has also been strong around the globe. In China, for example, profits are growing well in excess of 20%.

　　股市前景比較樂觀。在經濟出現軟著陸的美國，股市行情獲得歷史性突破。因為在軟著陸中，利率仍然穩定甚至在下降而經濟增長盡管比較疲軟但仍能基本保持向上。這就是我們所看到的美國當前的狀況，第一季度盈利比一年前增長了8%，大大超出了投資者在財報公布季度之前預計的3%。美國以外的其他市場狀況更好，增長前景更為強勁，不過利率政策相對比較謹慎。估值水平理想。盡管股市表現強勢而且很多市場都達到歷史高位，全球盈利增長也在齊頭并進。例如在中國盈利增長大幅超越20%。

　　Thus, as the level of earnings has broadly kept up with the level of price movement, valuation levels remain reasonable. Also, interest rates are relatively low, offering little competition to equities. Significant mergers and acquisition activity as well as private equity transactions are providing a significant boost to liquidity and equity market demand. Within equities, our geographical preference is for Asia, Europe and emerging markets where we expect the strongest earnings performance and also an attractive mix of valuations. We are not negative on US or Japan in absolute terms, it is just that we expect them to lag the other regions.

　　因此，盈利增速大體上能夠跟上股價上漲的步伐，估值仍處在理想的水平。同時利率水平相對仍處在低位，對股市不構成競爭。規模龐大的購并活動以及私募股權交易給流動性增長推波助瀾并且刺激了股市需求。就股市而言，我們更看好亞洲、歐洲和新興市場，在這些市場將會出現最為強勁的盈利表現并且估值具有吸引力。我們并不是對美國或者日本市場完全否定，只不過它們將落后于其他地區的表現。

　　We expect bond yields to range trade over the coming few months. US bonds have discounted the slow down in US activity. For yields to decline much further we would

　　need to expect a recession, which is not our core outlook. The upside for yields is also quite limited in the near term with little pressure on inflation and the US economy still adjusting to the housing down turn. Hence, our base case outlook that bonds will generally perform in line with yield, with little prospect of meaningful capital movement.

　　我們預計在未來的幾個月債券收益率將保持震蕩。美國債券已經體現出經濟放緩的狀況。收益率繼續下降需要一輪經濟衰退，但這并不是我們的核心預期。近期債券收益率的上升空間也比較有限，因為來自通脹的壓力微乎其微而美國經濟正在對房產市場的低迷作調整。所以，我們的基本看法是債券表現將基本與收益率一致，不太會出現實質性的波動。

　　In the foreign exchange markets, the US dollar has continued to struggle as growth has underperformed in the US. However, the US dollar is relatively cheap against European currencies and also against most of its major Latin American trading partners. With the downturn in the US well discounted by investors, we do not expect

　　the dollar to suffer major weakness in the near term. The clear opportunity in foreign exchange, in our view, remains in Asia where Asian currencies are cheap. These economies are doing well with huge positive current account balances and foreign exchange reserve accumulations. The main factor standing in the way of more rapid Asian currency appreciation is that Asian central banks do not like to see significant currency rate adjustments over short periods of time. They will though accept a gradual adjustment as we have seen over the past year in China for the Renminbi, as well as Korea, India and most of the Asean economies. We expect Asian currencies to continue their gradual appreciation over the medium term.

　　在外匯市場，因為美國經濟表現落后，美元仍在坎坷前行。不過美元相對歐元顯得便宜，對其拉丁美洲的主要貿易伙伴貨幣來說也是如此。美國經濟放緩已經被投資者充分兌現，因此我們并不認為近期美元還會遭受嚴重的貶值。在我們看來，外匯市場最為明顯的投資機會在亞洲，亞洲貨幣仍顯得便宜。這些國家經濟表現良好，經常項目余額和外匯儲備都有巨額的積累。阻止亞洲貨幣更快升值的主要因素是亞洲央行并不樂意看到匯率在短時間內出現大幅度調整，它們更愿意接受漸進的調整，正如中國人民幣過去幾年經歷的那樣，還有韓國、印度和大多數東盟國家。我們預計中期內亞洲貨幣將保持逐漸升值的步伐。

　　股票策略

　　美國  回顧

　　In April, the S&P 500 Index rose 4.3%. However, it was the Dow Jones Industrial Average that stole the headlines as it passed the 13,000 level for the first time in its history. The index was supported by strong earnings from its small number of components. The broader market indices also benefited from the positive trend to corporate earnings. The economic outlook provided further positive momentum towards the end of the month as the Federal Reserve’s ‘beige book’ of economic conditions noted that the US economy had shown modest growth and that consumer prices had been largely stable, conditions that are consistent with US rates remaining on hold. The end of the month saw data released that showed US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, below the forecast for 1.8%. Despite the weakness of the data, its strong consumer spending component helped to negate part of the disappointment.

　　4月份標準普爾500指數上升了4.3%。不過道瓊斯指數表現更為搶眼——突破了13000點的歷史新高，少數成份股的強勁盈利增長推動其表現。更廣泛的市場指數也同樣受益于公司盈利的上升勢頭。經濟展望正面，直到月底都為市場進一步上漲提供動力。美聯儲的經濟展望褐皮書顯示美國經濟取得了溫和增長，消費物價大體平穩，這些條件都與維持利率不變的決定相吻合。月底公布的數據顯示美國GDP在2007年首季增長了1.3%

　　，較預期的1.8%為低。盡管數據疲軟，但消費支出的強勁表現抵消了部分失望情緒。

　　展望

　　The US is on track to achieve a soft landing. The slow down in housing has affected domestic demand in the economy, and US GDP has slowed from over 3.5% growth for the first half of 2006 to around 2.5% for the past 6 months. Despite the general slow down the positive signs are that US employment remains relatively solid and consumer expenditure is doing well. Business investment has been disappointing over the past 6 months, however there are indications that this maybe turning around. Factory orders, business confidence and inventory to shipments ratios are turning stronger. The risk of the US slow down turning into an outright recession exists, but at this stage we would place only a small probability on such a risk.

　　美國正處在軟著陸通道上。房產市場放緩已經影響到消費，美國GDP增長率從2006年上半年的3.5%下滑到過去六個月的2.5%。除了整體放緩之外，積極的信號則包括美國就業率仍相對景氣而消費者支出也在造好。過去6個月商業投資讓人失望，不過也有跡象顯示情況正在扭轉。工廠訂單、商業信心和庫存貨運比等數字都在走強。美國經濟的放緩演變成一次大蕭條的可能性是存在的，但現階段我們認為這種風險發生的可能性比較低。

　　歐洲(英國除外)  回顧

　　Over the month, the FTSE Europe ex-UK Index was 4.3% higher. European equity markets were supported during April by further signs of economic strength, positive earnings and, once again, by mergers and acquisitions. Data from the influential German economy was upbeat, as the Ifo index of business sentiment beat forecasts in April and also on upward revisions to German economic growth forecasts. In merger and acquisition news, ABN Amro received a firm offer from UK banking group Barclays and was also being pursued by a consortium led by Royal Bank of Scotland and including Fortis and Santander. Also in merger and acquisition news, sportswear group Puma received a �5.3 billion offer from French group PPR and DaimlerChrysler gained on its confirmation that it had received expressions of interest in its troubled Chrysler division.

　　4月份金融時報歐洲(英國除外)指數上漲了4.3%。英國股市當月得到經濟進一步走強、盈利數字造好以及購并活動的支撐。具有強大影響力的德國經濟表現超出預期，Ifo商業景氣指數4月份超出預期，德國經濟增長預測也被調升。并購消息方面，荷蘭銀行接受了英國銀行集團巴克萊德收購要約，同時也被包括西班牙桑坦德銀行(Santander.)和富通銀行(Fortis)在內的蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)牽頭的財團競購。另外，運動服裝集團彪馬(PUMA)接受了法國PPR集團53億歐元的收購要約，德姆勒克萊斯勒則確認有買家對其旗下備受困擾的克萊斯勒公司表示了興趣，股價因此上漲。

　　展望

　　Surveys of both business and consumer confidence remain quite strong, painting a buoyant growth picture for the Eurozone. And unlike the US, earnings momentum continues to be strong, with analysts still revising their earnings estimates upwards. In light of the strong data, market participants continue to revise their 2007 GDP growth upwards, and consensus is now 2.48%. Despite strong growth, inflation continues to be moderate, suggesting there is little need for aggressive tightening by the European Central Bank this year. Valuations for European equities remain attractive relative to cash and bonds, as well as other equity markets. Given that markets have been bullish, the risk of a short correction has increased, although the outlook remains upbeat.

　　調查顯示商業和消費者信心仍然充足，為歐元區勾勒出強勁的增長前景。而且不像美國，這里的盈利增長勢頭仍然強勁，分析師仍在不斷調高盈利預期。受益于強勁數據，市場參與各方繼續調高對GDP增速的預期，現在一致的結果是2.48%。盡管增長勢頭很強，通脹卻保持溫和，意味著今年歐洲央行不需要采取激進收縮措施。與現金、債券，乃至其他股市相比，歐洲股市的估值仍然有吸引力。市場一直走牛增加了短期修正的風險，不過前景依然看好。

　　英國 回顧

　　UK equity markets were dominated by merger and acquisition news during April, which helped to push the FTSE 100 Index up 2.2% in April. Also underpinning the generally upward trend was positive first quarter results, which drove the market higher despite the prospect of further monetary tightening in the UK. First quarter earnings results provided the catalyst for UK equities to push back towards their six-year highs. The economic background was less supportive of equities as inflation rose beyond forecasts, which prompted financial markets to conclude that an interest rate rise in May is highly likely. The tightening bias of the Bank of England was also evidenced by the minutes from the April policy meeting, which saw two of the nine members vote for a rate increase.

　　4月份英國股市被購并消息所主導，金融時報100指數當月增長了2.2%。一季度盈利數據同樣對整體上升趨勢起到了推動作用，在英國可能進一步緊縮貨幣政策的情況下，市場依然上行。一季度盈利數據為英國股市重新回到六年來的高點提供了催化劑。經濟背景對股市的支持比較少，通脹增長超出了預期，導致市場認為5月份有很高的可能會升息。英國央行的緊縮傾向從4月份貨幣政策會議的紀要中也能得到印證，紀要顯示9位成員中的兩位投票加息。

　　展望

　　We consider that UK equities remain reasonably valued and expect that earnings, as well as mergers and acquisitions will remain the key supports, as they have been for some time. However, we also maintain the view that volatility is likely to remain a feature of financial markets given their sensitivity to adverse economic news, earnings disappointments or signs of escalating political tensions. The impact of the final point has already been seen in the rising oil price, which once again has approached the $70 per barrel level.

　　我們認為英國股市估值仍然合理，盈利增長和并購活動仍會繼續支撐股市，一段時間以來一直如此。不過，波動性仍將會是金融市場的特征之一，市場對負面的經濟信息、令人失望的盈利數據以及政治緊張局勢升級的跡象都反應敏感，其中最后一點已經反映在飆升的油價上，油價已經再度接近70美元一桶。

　　日本　回顧

　　Over the month, the Topix Index fell 0.7%. During the month, Japanese equities were subdued, as disappointing economic news, both domestically and from the US, weighed upon sentiment. In Japan, interest rates were held in April against a background of falling consumer prices and weaker than expected industrial output. The lacklustre GDP data from the US also kept Japanese markets under pressure, although a weaker performance from the yen against the US dollar did help to provide some support the country’s large contingent of exporters.

　　4月份東證綜合股價指數(TOPIX)下跌了0.7%。當月日本股市受到了壓制，國內和美國令人失望的經濟消息打擊了市場情緒。在日本，在消費價格走低和工業生產弱于預期的情況下，利率在4月份仍然保持不變。美國暗淡的GDP數據也使得日本股市承壓，盡管日元對美元走軟確實給日本大量的出口股提供了支持。

　　展望

　　Despite recent upward revisions, Japan is still expected to grow at a more subdued pace than other major economies. Economic indicators are mixed. While there are some signs of an improvement in manufacturing, with industrial production picking up again, domestic consumption remains weak. Uncertainty over deflation has been a key reason for the underperformance in the equity market. And as deflationary risks persist, the Bank of Japan is likely to increase rates only gradually. Japan currently has the lowest interest rates among industrialized nations, and the government has been pressuring the central bank to keep rates low so as to not endanger the economic recovery. Because of the artificially low interest rates, many investors have been borrowing in yen to finance transactions. However, as rates move gradually higher, and as the currency faces upward pressure, this trend may be reversed.

　　盡管近期出現了向上修正，日本經濟增長仍然會保持比其他國家更受壓制。經濟指標好壞參半。工業生產再次加速，出現了制造業改善的跡象，但國內消費仍然疲軟。通縮的不確定性是股市表現落后的一個關鍵性原因。既然通縮風險依然存在，日本央行就可能只是逐漸升息。日本目前是工業國中利率最低的，政府還一直給央行施壓使利率保持低水平以免威脅到經濟復蘇。因為利率被人為壓低，很多投資者一直在借入日元進行交易。然而隨著利率逐步升高、日元面臨著升值壓力，這種套利交易可能會扭轉。

　　亞洲(日本除外)　回顧

　　Asia ex-Japan markets posted positive returns again in April, aided by generally strong environment for global equities. With levels of equity volatility staying relatively low and a marginally steeper US yield curve, appetite for riskier and cyclical asset classes continued, allowing the MSCI Asia ex-Japan to rise 3.42% (in USD terms). Indonesia, the best performing market during the month, returned 9.2%. This performance was quite closely followed by India, Malaysia and Korea. All these markets rose by more than 6%, mostly driven by stronger fund inflow. Indonesian equities were buoyed by strong commodity prices, as well first quarter GDP estimates which place growth at around 5.7-5.9%. As a laggard market in 2006, the Korean market has rebounded outperforming the region year-to-date. A shift in global liquidity to undervalued assets and foreign fund inflows contributed to the rise.

　　在全球股市的牛市氛圍下，亞洲(日本除外)市場在4月份都取得正回報。股市波動相對穩定，美國債券收益率曲線又變得陡峭，市場對高風險、周期性資產的興趣有增無減，

摩根士丹利資本國際亞洲(日本除外)指數上漲了3.42%(以美元計)。當月表現最佳的印度尼西亞股市上漲了9.2%。以微弱差距緊隨其后的是印度、馬來西亞和韓國。這些股市都上漲超過6%，主要是受到大量資金流入的推動。印尼股市獲得了強勁的商品價格的帶動，同時第一季度GDP預測也在5.7%-5.9%。盡管在2006年表現落后，韓國市場今年以來強勁反彈，在亞洲表現領先。全球流動性向低估資產的轉移以及大量外資流入推動了此輪上漲。

　　展望

　　Markets have been fairly bullish on the back of strong corporate earnings results in the US, and it is possible that they could experience some profit taking in the near term. However, the underlying fundamentals for the region have not changed, and valuations are attractive relative to history, and their peers. Thus we would view a pull back as a buying opportunity. We expect to see earnings growth in the region of 15% for the year, with a dividend yield of around 3%. Corporate balance sheets remain healthy, and macro backdrop remains supportive of growth. Despite strong commodity prices, inflation remains relatively stable in the region, with little risk of aggressive tightening. The only significant exceptions to this are China and India, where inflationary pressure has led to several rate hikes. In these two countries, further monetary tightening is a key risk for equity markets.

　　受到美國強勁的公司盈利數據支撐，亞洲股市牛氣十足，而且近期可能出現部分獲利回吐。不過這一區域基本面被低估的事實仍未改變，而且估值相對于歷史水平和其他市場而言仍顯得有吸引力。因此我們會把回調視為買入機會。預計這一區域今年平均盈利增長速度為15%，股息率大約為3%。公司資產狀況仍然健康，宏觀基本面也支持繼續增長。盡管商品價格大幅上漲，但通脹率仍然相對穩定，不太可能出現激進的緊縮措施。中國和印度則是特例，通脹壓力已經導致了幾次升息，進一步的貨幣緊縮措施是這兩個國家股市的關鍵性風險。

　　中國 回顧

　　China shares rose in April with H share and MSCI China indices up 4.4% and 3.6% respectively on robust earnings results and strong economic data release. The China market achieved net profit growth of 22.0% in 2006, higher than market expectation, with strong contributions from consumer, financial, basic materials and property sectors. China’s GDP grew 11.1% year-on-year in 1Q07, accelerating from 10.7% in 2H06. The central bank increased the required reserve ratio twice during the month to absorb excess liquidity. The market viewed the increase as mild compared to the potential introduction of harsher austerity measures such as capital gain tax on stock trading and property withholding tax. Increase in food price pushed CPI inflation to grow at the fastest pace in two years at 3.3% in March. Retail sales rose at a faster-than-expected pace at 15.3% in March, up from the 13.7% increase in 2006.

　　強勁的盈利增長和經濟數據促使中國股市在4月份大漲，H股和摩根士丹利資本國際中國指數分別上漲了4.4%和3.6%。中國股市2006年凈利潤增長率達到22%，超過了預期，消費、金融、基礎原材料和

房地產板塊做出大部分貢獻。中國2007年一季度GDP同比增長11.1%，比2006年下半年10.7%的增速有所加快。央行在4月份兩次提高存款準備金率以吸收多余流動性。市場認為，與征收股票資本利得稅和房地產預提稅等可能實施的更為嚴厲的措施相比，提高存款準備金率仍算是溫和的。食品價格的上漲導致CPI在3月份創出了兩年以來的最高增速3.3%。3月份零售總額增長了15.3%，比預期得高，也快于2006年13.7%的增速。

　　展望

　　The stronger than expected earnings in 2006 and the positive outlook for 2007 will continue to support the market advance. Although the government may still introduce further austerity measures after the golden week holiday (1-7 May), the likelihood of this has been reduced. The two required reserve ratio hikes in April were mild in comparison to the expectations of more direct measures to control stock market speculation. Recent talks of substantial expansion of the QDII scheme over the coming months to allow domestic funds to flow out of China in order to balance the strong inflows will continue to support the Chinese shares trading in Hong Kong which are trading at steep discounts to A-shares. Continuing Renminbi appreciation, expansion of the QDII scheme, corporate M & A and implementation of management incentive plans are positive factors that would lead the market higher over the longer term.

　　2006年超出預期的盈利增長以及2007年樂觀的前景將繼續支持股市上行。政府有可能在黃金周后出臺進一步緊縮措施，不過這種可能性在降低。4月份兩次提升準備金率相對于預期中的更直接控制市場投機的措施來說，還顯得溫和。QDII體系的進一步擴大，允許內地資金流出以平衡大量的境外資金流入，會繼續支持香港市場中國概念股表現，目前這些股票價格與A股相比有相當大的折讓。長期來看，人民幣持續升值、QDII體系擴大、公司并購活動以及管理層激勵計劃的實施，都將是引領股市的積極因素。

　　中國香港  回顧

　　The Hang Seng Index (HSI) was locked in a tight range of between 19,810 and 20,790 in April. Despite a sharp correction in March, ample liquidity and positive corporate results helped the market to recover quickly, although the previous all-time high of 20,821 became a resistance level. Buying interest was keen with the market daily turnover averaged at HK$54.9 billion in April, a level similar to that in 1Q07. The Finance sector was the best performing sector, helped by strong performances of individual stocks. The Property and Utilities sectors followed while Commercial/Industrial lagged.

　　恒生指數4月份被鎖定在19,810到20,790的狹窄區間內。盡管3月份出現了劇烈修正，充裕的流動性和樂觀的公司盈利幫助市場快速收復失地，不過此前的歷史高點20,821成為一個阻力位。買入熱情高漲，市場4月份的日均交易額達到549億港元，與2007年一季度的水平接近。 金融板塊表現最好，個股表現強勁。房地產和公用事業板塊緊隨其后，商業/工業板塊落后市場。

　　展望

　　We expect market volatility. In the short term, the market may stay range bound. We continue to prefer property developers, retailers and hoteliers. We also like selective quality small/mid cap banks and industrials. Risks for the market remain on the external front such as economic slowdown in the US and further tightening measures in China, although ample liquidity, positive domestic fundamentals and reasonable valuation should limit market downside. Yield gap analysis suggests there can be another 20% upside for the market if earnings yield is to close the gap with the 10-year bond yield. However, as the yield gap narrows, the market may become more volatile and sensitive to changes in sentiment.

　　我們預計市場將出現波動。短期內市場會窄幅震蕩。我們繼續看好房產

開發商、零售股和酒店股，以及少數優質中小盤銀行和工業股。風險主要來自外部，比如美國經濟增長放緩、國內進一步緊縮措施等，不過充裕的流動性、樂觀的當地基本面以及合理的估值水平將會限制市場下跌的空間。收益率差距分析表明要使股市收益率接近10年期債券收益率，市場還需上漲20%。不過，一旦收益率差距收窄，市場可能更為波動并且對投資信心的變化更為敏感。

　　債券和貨幣

　　債券回顧

　　Treasury prices in the US were flat during April as mixed data reinforced the existing expectation that US interest rates are likely to be on hold in the short-term. In contrast, European economic strength, particularly in Germany, added to the upward pressure on interest rates and accordingly bond prices fell back, with the yield on the ten-year German bond rising to 4.15% over the month.

　　4月份美國國債價格走平，好壞參半的數據支持了原有的預期，即美國利率將在短期內保持不變。不同的是，歐洲，尤其是德國的經濟增長勢頭進一步提升了加息壓力，從而使得債券價格回落，德國10年期債券收益率在4月份升至4.15%。

　　展望

　　We expect bond yields to range trade over the coming few months. US bonds have discounted the slow down in US activity. For yields to decline much further we would need to expect a recession which is not our core outlook. The upside for yields is also quite limited in the near term with little pressure on inflation and the US economy still adjusting to the housing down turn. Hence our base case outlook that bonds will generally perform in line with yield, with little prospect of meaningful capital movement.

　　我們預計在未來的幾個月債券收益率將窄幅震蕩。美國債券價格已經反映了經濟放緩的狀況。收益率繼續下降需要一輪經濟衰退，但這并不是我們的核心預期。近期債券收益率的上升空間也比較有限，因為來自通脹的壓力微乎其微而美國經濟正在對房產市場的低迷作調整。所以，我們的基本看法是債券表現將基本與收益率一致，不太會出現實質性的波動。

　　貨幣回顧

　　The dollar came under sustained pressure in April, with sterling hitting its highest level against the US currency for 26 years and once again trading above the $2 level. Sterling’s strength was based on forecasts for rising interest rates and this was also the catalyst for the Euro to trade at a two-year high against the dollar. The bank of Japan’s decision to hold rates in April saw the yen weaken against the dollar and over the month sterling was largely unchanged against the Euro.

　　4月份美元一直承受著壓力，英鎊對美元創出26年的新高，再度突破了2美元的水平。英鎊走強是基于升息的預期，這也是導致歐元對美元達到兩年來高點的催化劑。4月份日本央行決定維持利率水平不變，使得日元對美元走軟。當月英鎊對歐元大體上沒有變化。

　　展望

　　The US dollar is relatively cheap against European currencies and also against most of its major Latin American trading partners and with the downturn in the US well discounted by investors we do not expect that the dollar will suffer major further weakness in the near term. The clear opportunity in FX in our view, remains in Asia where Asian currencies are cheap, the economies are doing well with huge positive current account balances and FX reserve accumulations. These currencies are expected to appreciate gradually over the medium term.

　　美元相對歐元顯得便宜，對其拉丁美洲的主要貿易伙伴貨幣來說也是如此。美國經濟放緩已經被投資者充分兌現，因此我們并不認為近期美元還會遭受嚴重的貶值。在我們看來，外匯市場最為明顯的投資機會在亞洲，亞洲貨幣仍顯得便宜。這些國家經濟表現良好，經常項目余額和外匯儲備都有巨額的積累。我們預計中期內亞洲貨幣將保持逐漸升值的步伐。

　　所有回報都以當地貨幣計算

　　本文觀點引自匯豐投資管理(香港)

    新浪聲明：本版文章內容純屬作者個人觀點，僅供投資者參考，并不構成投資建議。投資者據此操作，風險自擔。