2006年8月28日全球金融市場周報 日本

　　Japan 日本

　　Despite the O-bon summer holiday season, volumes traded in Japan were the most active in 8 weeks. The Nikkei broke through its 200 day Moving Average, and all indices posted positive WoW returns, with TOPIX rising 0.4% and TSE Mothers up 8%. In addition to small cap outperformance, lower oil prices and a resurgent US tech sector were also a notable feature of last week's markets. By sector, other financials, which is the worst performing sector YTD, led the gains by rising over 10%. Securities and rubber were also strong, supported by the strength in the market as well as declines in oil and natural rubber prices. The worst performing sectors were unsurprisingly commodity-related, such as mining and coal. Margin call pressure on individual investors seems to be easing steadily. According to Matsui Securities, the margin loss ratio of its customers fell to 9.4%, falling below 10% for the first time since 15 May. The loss ratio represents the latent losses from margin transactions, and it deteriorated to as much as -22.1% in early June. Short-term technical indicators appear slightly over-heated, but the resurgence in risk appetite particularly in the small-cap universe looks encouraging.

　　The METI's tertiary sector activity index for 2Q rose 2.6% QoQ, marking a sixth consecutive quarterly increase. Business services, which consists of professional services, research, rental and leasing, advertising, guard services, and staffing services, have been a constant contributor to this uptrend. Retail trade data has been somewhat disappointing so far this year, but momentum in consumption seems to have been well maintained in the service sector, and we expect this trend to continue given the steady recovery in the labour market. A two-week long takeover battle between two leading menswear retailers ended last Friday when the target, Futata Co. agreed to be acquired by its biggest shareholder Konaka Co. Futata will become a 100% subsidiary of Konaka via a stock-swap scheme. The stock-swap ratio of the deal would put Futata's total equity value at roughly JPY13.5bn, compared to the pre-biding market cap of JPY7.4bn.

　　盡管上周正值盂蘭盆節假期，但日本卻錄得八個星期以來最活躍的交投。日經指數升破200天移 動平均線，與前周相比，所有指數都錄得進賬，東京第一市場指數升0.4%，TSE Mothers則升8%。除小型股表現出色外，油價下降和美國科技股回升都備受上周日本市場注目。按類別分析，年初以來表現最劣的其它金融股表現領先，上升逾一成。在市場走勢堅挺和石油及天然橡膠價格下降支持下，證券行和橡膠股亦表現神勇。表現最劣的是礦務及煤炭等商品相關股。

　　散戶孖展補倉壓力逐漸減輕。有證券行指其客戶孖展虧損比率降至9.4%，是5月15日以來首次低于10%。虧損比率指孖展交易的潛在虧損，6月初一度惡化至-22.1%。短期技術指標有輕微過熱跡象，但冒險意欲回升(特別是小型股)卻令人鼓舞。

　　經濟產業省公布第二季的第三產業活動指數較上季升2.6%，連升六季。商業服務(包含專業服務、研究、租金和租賃、廣告、保安服務和招聘服務)有助推動這項向上走勢。今年以來的零售業數據略欠理想，但服務業消費動力似乎承接不俗，基于勞工市場穩步復蘇，有關趨勢可望持續。兩大男士服裝零售商之間長達兩周的收購戰終于在上周五完結，Futata同意接納其最大股東Konaka收購，而Futata將會透過一項換股計劃而成為Konaka的全資附屬公司。按交易的換股比率計算，Futata的股權總值由收購前的市值74億日圓增至135億日圓。

(以上資料全部來源于JF Asset Management)

　　獨家聲明：

　　新浪編者注：本文為作者授權新浪網獨家刊登之作品，所有媒體及網站不得轉載，除非獲得新浪網及作者本人書面授權并注明出處為新浪網。欲轉載者請致電：(86-10)82628888轉5173聯系。本文觀點純屬作者個人意見，與本網站立場無關。非常感謝廣大網友對新浪財經頻道的支持，歡迎賜稿與合作。