Europe 歐洲

　　European stock markets suffered modest falls against a backdrop of rising US economic uncertainty, continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the uncovering of a terrorist plot by the UK authorities. Among the major markets, the German DAX suffered a 1.7% decline, compared to a 1.2% slump for the UK's FTSE 100, a 1.1% drop for the French CAC 40, and a 0.4% fall for the Swiss SPI. Confidence was undermined by global factors, with domestic European earnings data and economic news remaining supportive. Corporate results, for example, continued to come in largely ahead of expectations. Among the companies reporting last week, Commerzbank, Hypo Real Estate and Adidas all reported strong second-quarter profits.

　　On the economic front, meanwhile, eurozone data continued to surprise on the upside, with German second-quarter GDP growth coming in at an annualized rate of 3.6%, while the French economy grew at a 4.0% annualised rate. Given this strong growth in two of Europe's largest economies, it is possible that the eurozone economy could grow by over 2.5% in real terms, above the consensus forecast of around 2.2%. Nevertheless, strong economic data led to further concerns over rising interest rates, with the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report suggesting further rate increases may still lie ahead. Telecom stocks were hit by a profit warning from Deutsche Telekom due to intense competition in the sector, while mining stocks were hit by industrial action at the world's largest copper mine in Chile. At the end of the week, news of a terrorist plot to explode bombs on flights between the UK and the US helped send airline and tourism-related stocks sharply lower. Despite this short term volatility, the outlook for European stocks remains very good, supported by attractive valuations and strong earnings growth, which has been boosted by corporate restructuring. Economic data continues to strengthen and has the potential to grow faster, helping to further boost corporate earnings in the second half of 2006 and into 2007.

　　美國經(jīng)濟(jì)前景日益不明朗，中東局勢緊張，英國當(dāng)局又揭發(fā)恐襲陰謀，歐洲股市在這環(huán)境下錄得溫和跌幅。主要市場當(dāng)中，德國DAX指數(shù)跌1.7%，英國富時100指數(shù)跌1.2%，法國CAC 40指數(shù)跌1.1%，瑞士SPI指數(shù)則跌0.4%。

　　環(huán)球因素削弱投資信心，歐洲內(nèi)部盈利數(shù)據(jù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)消息則依然利好。舉例而言，企業(yè)業(yè)績?nèi)源笾鲁�越預(yù)期。上周公布業(yè)績的公司中，Commerzbank、Hypo Real Estate和Adidas皆在第二季錄得豐厚溢利。

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)方面，歐元區(qū)數(shù)據(jù)驚喜不絕，德國第二季本地生產(chǎn)總值增長年率達(dá)3.6%，法國增長達(dá)4.0%。以法、德兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的強(qiáng)勁增長衡量，歐元區(qū)實(shí)質(zhì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有望超過2.5%，較一般預(yù)期的2.2%為高。雖然如此，強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)令市場更關(guān)注息口上升，英倫銀行的季度通脹報(bào)告亦暗示未來仍會進(jìn)一步加息。

　　德國電訊(Deutsche Telekom)基于行內(nèi)競爭激烈而發(fā)表利潤警告，拖累電訊股受挫。礦務(wù)股則因位于智利的全球最大銅礦發(fā)生工業(yè)行動而下跌。上周尾段，有消息指恐怖份子密謀在來往英美航機(jī)上引爆炸彈，拖累航空公司及旅游相關(guān)股急挫。短期走勢雖然反復(fù)， 在股值吸引和企業(yè)重組刺激盈利增長的支持下，歐洲股市前景依然一片光明。經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)一直向好，更有潛力加快，有助進(jìn)一步刺激今年下半年及明年的企業(yè)盈利。