我們現(xiàn)在正處在努力建立一個更加開放和公正的全球貿(mào)易體系的關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻。今年9月，世界貿(mào)易組織坎昆會議破裂之后，談判各方都面臨著12月15日重開談判的挑戰(zhàn)。現(xiàn)在，談判期限即將來臨，但在主要議題上，各利益陣營仍存在很大分歧。由于它們數(shù)月來始終無所作為，多哈發(fā)展議程被無限期推遲的可能性很大。

We have reached a critical juncture in efforts to create a more open and equitable global trading system. After the breakdown at the September World Trade Organisation meeting, negotiators set themselves the challenge of restarting talks by December 15. But, on the eve of that deadline, the coalitions seem as far apart as ever on the main issues. The risk of the Doha development agenda being put off indefinitely looms larger with each month of inaction.

    本輪貿(mào)易談判任何可能的推遲，都會使我們失去一次刺激全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、取得消除貧困的關(guān)鍵進(jìn)展，以及實(shí)現(xiàn)聯(lián)合國千年發(fā)展目標(biāo)的機(jī)會。談判的推遲也會加速推動建立雙邊和區(qū)域貿(mào)易安排的趨勢，同時(shí)使很多國家被隔離在世界主要市場之外，并生活在貿(mào)易大國的陰影之下。現(xiàn)在，發(fā)達(dá)國家有責(zé)任盡早做出實(shí)質(zhì)性的、能反映目標(biāo)的相關(guān)承諾，打破貿(mào)易壁壘，削減導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易畸形發(fā)展的農(nóng)業(yè)補(bǔ)貼，并對新加坡議題中新規(guī)定的義務(wù)采取靈活態(tài)度。達(dá)成這一目標(biāo)并非易事，它需要有關(guān)方面的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層做出政治決斷，并獲得談判各方的廣泛支持。為什么各方應(yīng)對此進(jìn)行支持呢？我們有以下幾個充分的理由：

Any delay in this trade round would be a lost opportunity to spur global growth, make decisive progress in the fight against poverty, and keep the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals within reach. It could also accelerate the trend towards bilateral or regional arrangements, leaving many countries isolated from major markets and vulnerable to more powerful trading nations. The onus is now on developed countries to make early, concrete and ambitious commitments to reducing barriers and trade-distorting subsidies in agriculture and to be flexible about new regulatory obligations (the "Singapore issues"). This will not be easy, as it requires determined political leadership and popular support. We see several compelling reasons why such support should be forthcoming.

    通過集體消除貿(mào)易壁壘來促進(jìn)貿(mào)易增長，是世界各國共同努力消除貧困、提高生活水平的最有效的方式。越來越多的事實(shí)證明，長期實(shí)行貿(mào)易開放的國家比閉關(guān)鎖國的國家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度更快。而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長能使世界上的貧困人口直接受益。經(jīng)濟(jì)每增長1個百分點(diǎn)，貧困程度平均每年下降就超過1.5個百分點(diǎn)。多哈回合談判如獲得成功，就可在2015年之前使1.4億人脫貧。

Expanding trade by collectively reducing barriers is the most powerful tool that countries, working together, can deploy to reduce poverty and raise living standards. A growing body of evidence shows that countries that are more open to trade grow faster over the long run than those that remain closed. And growth directly benefits the world's poor. A one percentage point increase in growth on average reduces poverty by more than 1.5 per cent each year. A successful Doha round could lift 140m people out of poverty by 2015.

    貿(mào)易的增長還會降低商品價(jià)格，豐富商品種類，從而使消費(fèi)者和高效率的生產(chǎn)企業(yè)獲益。這是因?yàn)椋�貿(mào)易能促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)專業(yè)化，從而大幅降低生產(chǎn)成本。同時(shí)，貿(mào)易還促使競爭更加激烈，而這是促進(jìn)技術(shù)革新的關(guān)鍵因素。與此形成強(qiáng)烈對比的是，貿(mào)易壁壘會給整個社會帶來成本居高不下的后果，特別是對那些最不能承擔(dān)高成本的企業(yè)。舉例來說，據(jù)估計(jì)，美國的進(jìn)口壁壘在上世紀(jì)90年代為旅行箱生產(chǎn)行業(yè)保住了226個工作崗位，但是僅為保住一個工作崗位，美國消費(fèi)者每年就要付出近130萬美元的代價(jià)。還有一例，現(xiàn)在歐盟地區(qū)的納稅人每年要支付5億多美元來補(bǔ)貼豌豆和大豆的生產(chǎn)。

Increased trade also benefits consumers and efficient producers, through lower prices and access to a wider variety of goods. This is because trade encourages greater specialisation - which dramatically lowers costs - and more intense competition, which is central to innovation. In sharp contrast, trade barriers can impose high costs on society - and particularly on those that can least afford them. For example, it has been estimated that barriers to imports in the 1990s saved 226 jobs in the US luggage industry, but at a cost to American consumers of nearly .3m per year for each job. And taxpayers in the European Union spend over m annually to subsidise the production of peas and beans.

    貿(mào)易的增長基本上總是會帶來更多更好的工作機(jī)會。過去20年，科技突飛猛進(jìn)，貿(mào)易蓬勃發(fā)展，就算把消失的工作機(jī)會計(jì)算在內(nèi)，美國依舊新增了約4000萬個工作崗位。誠然，當(dāng)一國實(shí)行貿(mào)易開放政策時(shí)，該國某些行業(yè)的競爭力就會顯得不足，也會出現(xiàn)公司倒閉和工作機(jī)會減少的現(xiàn)象。這就象新技術(shù)剛開始發(fā)展時(shí)一樣。但是貿(mào)易也會帶來新的工作機(jī)會，而且這些工作機(jī)會一般都比原有的更好。其中的關(guān)鍵就在于控制貿(mào)易調(diào)整的成本，幫助產(chǎn)業(yè)工人轉(zhuǎn)入更具競爭力的工作崗位，而不是抗拒這一變化。

Expanded trade nearly always means more and better jobs. Over the past two decades - a period of immense technological change and growth in trade - around 40m more jobs were created than were destroyed in the US. It is true that, when a country opens to trade, just as when new technologies are developed, some of its sectors may not be competitive. Companies may go out of business and some jobs will be lost. But trade creates new jobs and these tend to be better than the old ones. The key is to manage the costs of trade adjustment and to support the transition of workers to more competitive employment, not to block change.

    這中間，降低調(diào)整的成本是關(guān)鍵，投資新的市場機(jī)會也同樣至關(guān)重要。國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)和世界銀行(World Bank)可幫助其成員，特別是發(fā)展中國家，對調(diào)整的成本進(jìn)行評估。同時(shí)，我們可以為有關(guān)成員的政策制訂、機(jī)制改革和基建、教育及其他領(lǐng)域的投資項(xiàng)目提供技術(shù)和財(cái)政支持，幫助它們提升競爭力和擴(kuò)大出口。

Alleviating any transition cost is critical. So too is investing to take advantage of new market opportunities. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank can assist our members, especially developing countries, in assessing potential costs of adjustment. And we can provide technical and financial assistance to help design policies, institutional reforms and investment programmes in infrastructure, education and other areas to improve competitiveness and expand exports.

    重開多邊貿(mào)易談判需要各方都付出重大的努力。發(fā)達(dá)國家應(yīng)當(dāng)率先采取實(shí)質(zhì)性措施，降低貿(mào)易壁壘，縮減向棉花、糖類及其他農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)商發(fā)放的補(bǔ)貼，因?yàn)檫@種補(bǔ)貼會導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易畸形發(fā)展。這樣做需要具有一定的政治勇氣，因?yàn)橛嘘P(guān)措施可能會損害該國國內(nèi)強(qiáng)大的選民利益。但是必須告訴選民，這些措施所帶來的利益將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過所造成的損失，并使更多的人廣泛受益。

Breathing lifesintosthe multilateral trade negotiations will require significant efforts from all. Developed countries should lead the way with substantive offers to lower barriers and curtail trade-distorting subsidies to cotton, sugar, and other agricultural producers. This requires political courage: such actions would impinge on powerful domestic constituencies. But electorates must be told that the losses would be far outweighed by gains that would be shared more broadly.

    發(fā)展中國家也應(yīng)做出他們的努力。它們應(yīng)當(dāng)將打破國內(nèi)貿(mào)易壁壘、采取貿(mào)易開放政策作為其發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的有機(jī)組成部分。該發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的重點(diǎn)應(yīng)該是：建立良好的管理體制和健全的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，并在基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)、教育和衛(wèi)生等方面加大投資。

Developing countries must also do their part. Tackling domestic trade barriers and embracing trade should be an integral part of development strategies. And these strategies also need to emphasise good governance, sound economic policies, and investment in infrastructure, education and health.

    如果所有國家都能夠同心協(xié)力，貿(mào)易自由化將在消除全球貧困現(xiàn)象方面充分發(fā)揮作用。這也是多邊貿(mào)易談判所企盼的前景。實(shí)施上述措施不應(yīng)被視為是一種“讓步”行為，而應(yīng)被看成是為本國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來機(jī)遇和提高生產(chǎn)力的途徑。如果各國政府一起采取這些措施，它們就會在提高生產(chǎn)力和贏得更多國際市場機(jī)會方面獲得雙倍的收益。它們越早采取這些措施，取得的效果就會越好。

Trade liberalisation will have the largest impact in reducing global poverty if countries act together to implement it. That is the promise of the multilateral approach. Taking these actions should not be seen as "concessions" but steps to promote opportunity and productivity in one's own economy. If all governments take these steps together they get the twin benefits of higher productivity at home and greater market opportunities abroad. The sooner they do so, the better.

    (霍斯特•科勒是國際貨幣基金組織執(zhí)行董事，詹姆斯•沃爾芬森是世界銀行主席。)

Horst Kohler is managing director of the IMF. James Wolfensohn is president of the World Bank

    譯者/孫誼