如果一切順利，邁克爾•戴爾(Michael Dell )可能終將成為信息時代的亨利•福特(Henry Ford)。

If things go according to plan, Michael Dell could eventually become the Henry Ford of the information age.

    對于這位PC制造商來說，這聽起來可能有些不可思議，但戴爾公司卻顯得雄心勃勃。20年前，邁克爾＃戴爾在德克薩斯州大學的一間宿舍里創辦了自己公司，當時曾引起不小的轟動。事實證明，戴爾簡單的商業理念具有很強的適應性，加上它那種令人肅然起敬的執著精神，戴爾總有辦法按計劃行事。

For a maker of desktop personal computers who founded his company, famously, in a University of Texas dormitory 20 years ago, this may sound unlikely. But the ambitions of Dell Inc are boundless - and thanks to a simple business idea that has proved highly adaptable, and a fearsome relentlessness, things at Dell have a way of going according to plan.

    電子消費產品可能使戴爾商業模式面臨有史以來最嚴峻的一次考驗。到目前為止，戴爾主要面向公司客戶：在美國，個人客戶只占總銷售額的五分之一，在其它國家則更少。

Consumer electronics are about to provide what could well be the biggest test of the Dell way of doing business. Until now, the company has sold mainly to corporate customers: only a fifth of its sales in the US are to consumers, and much less than that elsewhere.

    但現在，戴爾德州總部的高層管理人士正埋頭制定計劃，欲與電子消費市場中的巨擎們一比高低。

Yet executives at the Texas headquarters are now busy laying plans to take on some of the giants of the consumer electronics world.

    戴爾總裁兼首席運營官凱文•羅林斯(Kevin Rollins)對公司 業務的蒸蒸日上貢獻頗大。他表示，戴爾完全有理由相信，它的所有產品應在國際市場中占有30%到40%的份額。

According to Kevin Rollins, the president and chief operating officer who has had much to do with its remorseless rise, there is no reason why Dell should not aim for 30-40 per cent of the global market for all the products it makes.

    現在，戴爾對總計8000億美元的運算和電子消費市場虎視眈眈。這也就意味著，戴爾相信有朝一日能輕而易舉地超越通用汽車(General Motors)所創下的1600億美元銷售 額的佳績。羅林斯先生說，這不是一個確定的具體目標，但他毫不回避戴爾的雄心。

Applied to the bn computing and consumer electronics markets that Dell now targets, that suggests it believes it could one day easily exceed the bn sales of General Motors. Mr Rollins says this is not a specific target that has been "written down and pinned to the wall", but he does not shrink from the ambition.

    一直以來，戴爾簡單卻有效的商業理念就是將標準化電子產品直接銷售給客戶，通常是在網上進行。這基本省去了正常情況下所必需的研究和開發過程，同時也免去了零售商和其他中間人環節。

Dell's simple but effective idea has been to sell standardised electronic products direct to customers, usually over the internet. That removes most of the research and development that is normally required, while also cutting out retailers and other middlemen.

    戴爾直接從客戶那里接受訂單，獲取相關信息，這種直銷模式賦予它另外兩大優勢。其一，它能在訂單到達時，根據訂單要求生產產品，從而大幅削減了倉儲成本；其二，當訂單到達時，其高效靈活的市場營銷機制可以根據實時業績更新信息。

Armed with the information it gets from taking orders directly from customers, Dell has gained two other powerful advantages. One is the ability to build products to match orders as they come in, slashing its inventory costs. The second is a highly efficient marketing machine that can adapt its message based on real-time results as orders arrive.

    由于成本較低，戴爾的介入將降低這個市場的利潤，縮小穩坐該市場競爭對手的利潤率空間。

With its lower costs, Dell sets out to undermine profits in the markets it enters and destroy the margins that sustain its more entrenched competitors.

    “我們的目標是改變“利潤池(profit pool)”，獲取其中的最大份額，”羅林斯先生說。電子消費公司的毛利潤率一般都在30%以上，在這種無情的競爭面前首當其沖。“我們的毛利潤率定在18%和19%之間：我們不需要40%，”他說。

Our goal is to shrink the profit pool and take the biggest slice," says Mr Rollins. Consumer electronics companies, often with gross profit margins of more than 30 per cent, make an obvious target for this ruthless approach. "Our gross margins are in the 18-19 per cent range: we don't need 40 per cent," he says.

    羅林斯先生曾是貝恩(Bain)的合伙人，他把冷靜的分析學和戰略顧問耳熟能詳的專業術語，運用在這種無情的拓展方式上：尋找最大的利潤池，搶奪市場份額；挑選那些與戴爾已有業務較為“相近”的業務，降低在未知領域里迷失方向的風險；依靠“核心能力” ，征服新的領域。

A former partner from Bain, the Dell president applies the cool analytics and familiar jargon of the strategy consultant to this relentless expansion: search out the markets with the biggest "profit pools" to be plundered; pick ones with close "adjacencies" to those Dell already serves to reduce the risk of wanderingsintosunknown territory; and apply its "core competences" to conquering new ground.

    戴爾對一個公認的公式反復加以應用，堪稱典范，不禁讓人叫絕。它將這個公式運用于PC銷售中，從公司客戶轉向個人客戶；接著，它又追隨企業客戶進入服務器領域；然后，轉戰存儲硬件市場。

As a textbook case of applying a proven and repeatable formula, Dell takes some beating. It used the formula to move from selling PCs to businesses to selling them to consumers. Next it followed its business customerssintos servers, thensintosstorage hardware.

    現在，戴爾要跟隨客戶進入電子產品的其它領域。它已從與PC關系密切的產品入手，例如MP3數字音樂播放機和類似于計算機顯示器的17英寸平面電視機。

Now it wants to follow consumerssintosother areas of electronics as well. It has started with products closely linked to the PC, such as MP3 digital music players and 17-inch flat-panel television sets that resemble computer monitors.

    據戴爾競爭對手稱，戴爾PC業務在美國的成功掩蓋了一個事實：戴爾發現，要介入其他產品市場或進軍新的地區已變得更加困難。“在戴爾的成功背后，其實是一種倒退，”惠普全球運營部負責人杰夫•克拉克(Jeff Clarke)說。

According to Dell's rivals, success in the PC business in the US has disguised the fact that the company has found it harder to breaksintosother products and new geographic regions. "Dell's success is backward-looking," claims Jeff Clarke, head of global operations at Hewlett-Packard.

    美林證券(Merrill Lynch) 的技術戰略專家史蒂夫•米盧諾 維奇（Steve Milunovich）稱，并非所有市場都象PC業務一樣能接受戴爾模式。但他補充道，戴爾選擇的進軍領域有所局限：其自身優勢必須仍能帶給它明顯的經濟和運營優勢。在這方面，戴爾做得張弛有度。

According to Steve Milunovich, technology strategist at Merrill Lynch, not all markets are as susceptible to all aspects of the Dell approach as the PC business. Yet he adds that the company has shown great discipline in attacking only those areasswheresits strengths still give it a clear economic and operational advantage.

    就連大多數戴爾的競爭對手都不得不承認，電子消費產品從模擬技術到數字技術的轉變與戴爾的優勢相得益彰。例如，戴爾早已是液晶顯示屏和計算機硬驅最大的買家，隨著這些電子零部件在電視機和其它家用電器中所起的作用越來越大，這將使戴爾的地位十分穩固。

Even most of the company's competitors concede that the shift in consumer electronics from analogue to digital technology plays to Dell's strengths. It is already the biggest purchaser of liquid crystal display screens and computer hard-drives, for instance, putting it in a strong position as these components come to play a bigger role in television sets and other household items.

    “當顯示器和液晶電視結合在一起時，我們將橫掃電子消費市場中的競爭對手，”首席市場運營官邁克•喬治(Mike George)表示。

"When you combine monitors and LCD televisions, we will blow away the consumer electronics guys," says Mike George, chief marketing officer.

    更為重要的是，標準化降低了電子零部件的成本，在技術上銳意創新的公司曾經擁有的優勢不復存在，戴爾也因此從中獲利。由于產品的各種功能開始越來越依賴于標準化零部件，例如微處理器和硬驅，技術創新所帶來的差別已越來越不明顯。

More importantly, Dell also benefits from the standardisation that brings down the cost of components and removes the advantage once enjoyed by companies that invest in their own technology. As more of a product's functions come to reside in standardised components such as microprocessors and hard drives, the differentiation that comes from making new versions declines.

    戴爾與其它競爭者之間的差別顯而易見。例如，索尼首席執行官出井伸之(Nobuyuki Idei) 兩周前向《金融時報》透 露，這家日本公司對專利部件越來越重視，為的是要讓其產品與眾不同。在過去的四年中，硅片占索尼投資額的70％。

The contrast with others is stark. Sony chief Nobuyuki Idei, for instance, told the FT two weeks ago that the Japanese company was putting a growing emphasis on proprietary components to differentiate its products. In the past four years, 70 per cent of Sony's investment has been in silicon chips.

    雖然電子消費產品的數字化也許正中戴爾核心優勢的下懷，但戴爾商業模式可能至少將面臨來自該市場的三大考驗。

While the digitisation of consumer electronics may have played to Dell's core strengths, though, there are at least three things about the market that are likely to test its business model.

    第一，至少現在，戴爾還將依賴其它公司的生產，這削弱了戴爾降低成本的能力。此外，電子消費業務以普通產品為基礎，而不是針對不同客戶進行個別配置。克拉克先生稱，這樣，戴爾無從體現根據訂單定制產品這一模式的優越性，它為每個買家度身定制的主要優勢將無用武之地。

One is the fact that it will rely, at least for now, on manufacturing by other companies, reducing its ability to drive down costs. Also, the consumer electronics business is based on common products that are not configured individually for different customers: according to Mr Clarke, that removes one main advantages of Dell's build-to-order model, the ability to customise products for each buyer.

    貝恩的一位咨詢顧問查理•金(Charlie Kim)說，使用公司 外部廠商也很可能意味著戴爾“將無法把庫存壓縮到象PC的庫存那樣少。”公司高層暗示，一旦產量達到足夠高的水平，戴爾很可能會開始自行生產。

Using outside manufacturers is also likely to mean the company "will not be able to operate on inventory that is as thin as it is in PCs," says Charlie Kim, a consultant at Bain. Company executives suggest that once manufacturing volumes reach a high enough level, Dell is likely to start production itself.

    米盧諾維奇先生說，盡管成本優勢在生產和采購等“后端”活動中不那么突出，但戴爾在電子消費市場的真正機遇是在“前端”的市場和銷售領域。“分銷將極為有利可圖，”他說。

Also, while the cost advantages may be less in "back-end" activities such as production and sourcing, the real opportunity for Dell in consumer electronics lies in the "front-end" marketing and sales area, says Mr Milunovich. "There's a big chunk of money to be taken out of distribution," he says.

    戴爾是否能夠憑借其直銷模式好好把握住這次機遇，將是它所面臨的第二大挑戰。克拉克先生說，零售商店模式最適合消費品，因為它們能立即形成一個大眾市場，并可以讓顧客看看、摸摸產品。戴爾的競爭者表示，對于顧客想要瞧瞧的電視機，或是顧客想要試試的手持式設備等產品，這尤為重要。

Whether Dell can take advantage of this opportunity with its direct sales system will be the second big challenge. Retail stores suit consumer products best because they bring an instant mass market and let users test the look and feel of products, says Mr Clarke. That is particularly important for products such as television sets, which buyers want to see, or handheld devices, which they want to pick up, say rivals.

    戴爾高層對這些質疑一一予以反駁。他們指出，對戴爾在網上銷售PC的嘗試，外界曾表示出類似的懷疑。而且，戴爾掌上電腦初期的銷售佳績顯示，由于消費者熟悉戴爾PC品質和風格，也愿意在網上購買戴爾的其它產品。

Dell executives retort that similar doubts were once expressed about its efforts to sell PCs online, and that its early sales of personal digital assistants suggest that consumers familiar with the quality and style of the company's PCs are willing to buy other items online too.

    第三大考驗就是戴爾的品牌和市場營銷方式是否能適應這個新的市場。雖然戴爾品牌的高知名度會有所助益，但不會讓戴爾一勞永逸。“戴爾這個品牌家喻戶曉，但它始終還是一個以PC為主的品牌，”貝恩的金先生表示。

The third test will be whether the Dell brand and marketing approach can be adapted to suit the new market. High name-recognition helps, but will get Dell only part of the way. "Everyone knows who Dell is - but it's still a PC-focused brand," says Mr Kim at Bain.

    對于一個仍然極度依賴公司客戶進行銷售的公司而言，這無疑將是一大挑戰。“事實上，沒有任何公司能兼顧個人和企業客戶，我們對此感到任重道遠，”喬治先生說。但他又補充道，戴爾品牌蘊含了特定的價值、質量和服務水平，這一基本特質應能延伸到這兩類市場中。

For a company that still relies heavily on selling to corporate customers, this will pose a big challenge. "We're very humbled by the fact that there are virtually no other companies that are both consumer and enterprise brands," says Mr George. He adds, though, that the basic attributes of the Dell brand - with its connotations of a certain level of value, quality and service - should extend across both types of market.

    要克服上述障礙，戴爾將不得不史無前例地擴張其模式。“（過去），戴爾一直無需做太大改變就能推廣新的產品，”金先生說，“現在，戴爾必須適應市場變化。”

Overcoming obstacles such as these will stretch the Dell model in ways that it has never been stretched before. "[In the past] they've been able to push new products through their system withoutshavingsto change it much," says Mr Kim. "Now, they're going to have to adapt."

    亨利•福特曾率先設計出大規模生產標準化產品的系統，從而聞名于世。他可能會對戴爾在PC業務取得的成績表示贊許。但戴爾要在電子消費市場再鑄輝煌，則必須證明，它能在不喪失其獨特風格的前提下，不斷重新調整自己的商業模式。

Henry Ford, famous for designing the first system capable of mass-producing a standardised product, would have approved of what Dell has already done to the PC business. To do the same in the consumer electronics world, though, it will have to prove that it can constantly retune its business model without losing the power that has set it apart.

    譯者/夏璇