如今，在貨幣市場自由浮動的不單單只是匯率，還有許多錯誤的想法。種種關(guān)于什么是對亞洲經(jīng)濟最適宜，或者實際應(yīng)當采取的匯率政策的錯誤觀點也到處傳播。隨著美國貿(mào)易赤字的增長，圍繞是否應(yīng)該讓亞洲主要貨幣升值，或者應(yīng)當采取更靈活的匯率制度的辯論也越來越激烈。

Exchange rates are not the only things that are floating freely in currency markets these days. Also bobbing around are many erroneous beliefs about the most desirable - and indeed the actual - currency policies for Asia's economies. As the US trade deficit grows, debate is hotting up on whether the main Asian currencies should be made to appreciate or to adopt more flexible exchange rates.

然而事實是，世上沒有“靈丹妙藥”。每個國家必須審視其經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平和融入國際金融市場的程度，同時也必須把外匯市場的狀況和資本市場的開放程度一起通盤考慮。

The truth is that there is no "one size fits all" solution. Each country has to assess its level of economic development and degree of integrationsintos international financial markets. It must also consider the status of its foreign exchange market together with the openness of its capital markets.

就韓國的情況來說，匯率政策隨著經(jīng)濟發(fā)展特別是資本市場的自由化而演進。在1980年代，政府根據(jù)一攬子貨幣確定匯率，隨后又轉(zhuǎn)向市場平均匯率。在經(jīng)歷了1997年的金融危機后，方才允許貨幣自由浮動。長期高估韓元的僵硬匯率，被認為是造成那次危機的主要原因之一。這個教訓(xùn)漢城是不會輕易忘記的。

In the case of South Korea, currency policy has evolved in line with its economic development and, in particular, with capital market liberalisation. During the 1980s, the government set the rate with reference to a basket of currencies, and later moved to a market-average system. After the 1997 financial crisis, the currency was allowed to float freely. Rigid exchange rates, which had long overvalued the won, were identified as one of the main reasons for the crisis. It was a lesson that Seoul will not soon forget.

自從采取了自由浮動匯率制度后，韓國政府便放棄了對外匯市場的干預(yù)。政府沒有對韓元設(shè)定浮動區(qū)間，而是尊重市場的供需變化。

Since adopting the free-floating exchange rate, South Korea's government has given up intervening in the foreign exchange market. It has no target range for the won and has been respecting the market's supply-and- demand dynamics.

但韓國外匯市場卻并不總是令人如愿地正常運轉(zhuǎn)。這個日交易額達20億至30億美元的市場，經(jīng)常發(fā)生“從眾”現(xiàn)象（herd behaviour）。當匯市大幅波動時，市場容易被投機交易所操縱，這些交易很少考慮經(jīng)濟的基本因素。如果這類交易引發(fā)匯率的急劇變化，政府則會介入市場，以減少震蕩。

However, the South Korean foreign exchange market does not always function as well as it should. The market, which has a daily trading volume of bn-bn, often invites herd behaviour. When big currencies fluctuate, it is vulnerable to speculative transactions that take little account of economic fundamentals. When such transactions bring steep movement in exchange rates, the government steps in to perform a smoothing operation.

最近，一些人在看到韓元大幅下滑后即懷疑，是否韓國政府在干預(yù)市場，維持韓元兌美元和日元的較低匯率。事實上，此次韓元的走弱是由投機者對美元的需求而引發(fā)的，他們需要大量美元進行補倉。

Recently, following a sharp fall in the won, some have voiced suspicions that the government has been intervening to keep the won weak against the dollar or the yen. In fact, the decline was triggered by demand for the dollar from speculators trying to cover large short positions in that currency.

從下面的一組數(shù)據(jù)中就能看出，韓國不曾奉行干預(yù)政策。今年，在亞洲的各主要貨幣中，韓元兌日元的波動是最高的，從7月底至10月底，韓元升值9%。韓元兌美元自去年初開始，上升了11%，是除日元之外的所有主要亞洲貨幣中升值最高的。考慮到2002年1月至2003年9月之間的通脹因素，韓元對美元實際升值13.8%，而日元對美元升值的幅度為12.7%。

A look at the figures makes clear that Seoul has not been pursuing an interventionist policy. Among Asia's main currencies, the won has shown the highest volatility against the yen this year, appreciating 9 per cent between the end of July and the end of October. Since the beginning of last year, it has risen 11 per cent against the dollar, the highest appreciation of all the main Asian currencies bar the yen. Takingsintosaccount inflation from January 2002 to September 2003, the won has appreciated by 13.8 per cent in real terms, compared with 12.7 per cent for the yen.

今年1月至8月，美國的全部貿(mào)易赤字中，韓國所占比重為2.2%，而中國占到22.1%，日本占12.4%。8月份韓國對美國的貿(mào)易順差急劇下降。根據(jù)美國方面的數(shù)據(jù)，韓國的貿(mào)易順差比上年下降5.3%。這些數(shù)據(jù)是不能支持韓國操縱匯率的觀點的。

South Korea accounts for only 2.2 per cent of America's total trade deficit from January to August this year. That compares with 22.1 per cent for China and 12.4 per cent for Japan. As of August, South Korea's trade surplus with the US has fallen sharply, recording a 5.3 per cent year-on-year decline according to US data. These figures hardly support the assertion that South Korea manipulates its exchange rates.

當前，全球貿(mào)易的不平衡反映了一個結(jié)構(gòu)性、體制上的問題。它并不單是因為匯率未能與全球經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展保持同步。單靠調(diào)整匯率是不能解決問題的。

The present global trade imbalance reflects a structural, system-wide problem. It is not just a consequence of exchange rates that have failed to keep pace with global economic development. Exchange rate adjustment alone will not yield a solution.

自2002年初以來，美國的貿(mào)易赤字和低利率便使美元受壓。美元下滑也伴隨著購買公司證券和直接投資的減少。如果美元的價值不能保持穩(wěn)定，亞洲國家將傾向于選擇歐元補充其外匯儲備。這將使美元在全世界的優(yōu)先地位和美國作為全球金融中心的角色，一并受到威脅。不僅如此，如果亞洲經(jīng)濟因美元疲軟而增長放慢的話，美國的服務(wù)業(yè)將受嚴重打擊，因為它們的主要客戶是在亞洲各國。

America's trade deficit and low interest rates have pressed down the dollar since early 2002. The decline is also associated with a drop in purchases of corporate securities and direct investment. Should the dollar's value continue to be unstable, Asian countries will tilt towards the euro in replenishing their foreign exchange reserves. The dollar's global pre-eminence would be threatened, as would America's status as the world's financial centre. Furthermore, if Asian economies slow because of a weak dollar, US service industries will be hit hard, since Asian economies are their main customers.

通過地區(qū)合作、貿(mào)易自由化和資本流動，世界主要國家已經(jīng)在經(jīng)濟全球化方面走上了不歸路。“以鄰為壑”的政策是沒有出路的。相反，各主要經(jīng)濟體之間需要通過加強政策協(xié)調(diào)，促進貿(mào)易和資本流動。這才是一條大家皆贏之路。

The world's big economies have already - through regional co-operation and liberalisation of trade and capital flows - crossed the point of no return in globalisation. "Beggar thy neighbour" policies will lead us nowhere. Instead, we need to strengthen policy co-ordination among the main economies and to increase trade and capital movement. That way the whole world can win. The writer is South Korea's deputy finance minister for international affairs

(作者為韓國財政部負責國際事務(wù)的副部長。)

譯者/方志燕