成千上萬的香港居民排隊數小時認購一家小型中國汽車企業的新股，還有數以百萬計的香港人將認購中國最大的人壽保險公司的上市股票。對于這些香港人而言，今年的圣誕節提早到來了。

For the thousands of Hong Kong residents who queued for hours to register for new shares in a small Chinese carmaker and the millions set to apply for the listing of China's largest life assurer, Christmas has come early.

    當地的散戶投資者被交易首日可能賺取的優厚利潤所吸引，對首次公開發行(IPO)的參與十分踴躍，引發人們擔心會出現新的投機泡沫。

Lured by the prospect of a large profit on the first day of trading, the territory's retail investors have rushed to buysintosinitial public offerings, prompting fears of a new speculative bubble.

    長城汽車股份有限公司是一家規模并不大的民營汽車制造企業，其香港IPO的認購超額竟達到680倍以上，這是自二十世紀九十年代后期網絡股泡沫以來未曾有過的水平。而預期將面對巨大散戶需求的中國人壽保險股份有限公司，更是印制了220萬份IPO認購申請表，相當于每三個香港居民一份。中國人壽IPO的融資總額為25億至30億美元，將成為今年全球最大規模的IPO。

Demand for shares in Great Wall Auto, the small car group, exceeded supply by more than 680 times, a level not seen since the dot.com mania of the late 1990s. And China Life has printed 2.2m application forms - one for every three Hong Kong residents - in expectation of huge retail demand for its .5bn-bn IPO, the world's largest this year.

    高漲的認購超額水平，勢必使股價在交易首日飆升，使上市公司能為“成功的IPO”而自吹自擂，也使排了數小時隊的散戶投資者得到回報。

Such levels of oversubscription ensure sharp rises on the first day of trading, enabling companies to boast of a "successful IPO" and rewarding investors for the long hours spent queuing.

    但在以勝利者自居的公司聲明和“快速贏利”的背后，散戶投資者以前曾為這種方式付出沉重代價。

But underneath the triumphalist statements and the quick profits lies a system that has cost retail investors dear in the past.

    小型證券公司面向散戶投資者輕易提供的“孖展貸款(margin lending)”，對散戶市場的需求起到了火上澆油的作用。投資者們確信IPO的股價會在交易的頭幾天飆升，讓他們拋掉股票，并在歸還貸款及利息之余，還賺到利潤 —— 這種做法稱為“新股套利(stagging)”。

Most of the retail demand is fuelled by easy access to credit through "margin lending" provided by small brokers. Investors bet that a sharp rise in an IPO's share price in the first days of trading will enable them to sell the stock at a premium high enough to repay the loan with interest, and still net a profit - a practice known as "stagging".

    批評人士指出，證券公司提供這些用股票來抵押的資金是有其動機的，因為它們既能通過IPO的股票交易賺取傭金，又能收取貸款利息。

Critics say brokers have an incentive to provide the funds, which are secured against the shares, as they earn commissions on share trading in the IPOs and receive interest on the loan.

    當一名《金融時報》記者走進位于香港市中心的一家小型券商 —— 宏高證券有限公司時，她被告知：只要她拿出10萬港幣，就可以借貸多達100萬港幣(合12.8萬美元)來認購中國人壽的股票。

When a Financial Times reporter walkedsintosWocom Securities, a small firm in central Hong Kong, she was told she could borrow as much as HKm (US,000) to buy China Life shares by putting up just HK,000.

    該公司一名年輕的經紀商表示，只需提供身份和地址證明，就能得到這種高達90%的“孖展成數” ，它比美國允許的最高限額高出近五倍。“你不需要任何(其它)抵押或收入證明，”他說。

The young broker said this 90 per cent margin lending - nearly five times the maximum allowed in the US - would be provided by simply showing a proof of identification and address. "You don't need any [extra] collateral or proof of salary," he said.

    在另一家小型券商 —— 輝立證券，《金融時報》被告知：貸款的年利率將為2.5%，但無需為此擔心，因為中國人壽股價預料中的漲幅，將足夠歸還貸款和利息。

At Phillip Securities, another small brokerage, the FT was told the money would be lent at an annual average rate of 2.5 per cent but there was no need to worry because the likely rise in China Life's shares would be enough to repay loan and interest.

    批評人士表示，新股套利這種做法對投資者是具有相當風險的，并有可能在遠期損害上市公司的股價行情。正如1997/98年的金融危機所顯示的，市場風云的突然變幻，可能會使舉債過多的小股民傾家蕩產。

Critics say stagging is risky for investors and could hurt the share prices of new listed companies in the long term. As shown by the 1997/98 financial crisis, sudden changes in the market could lead to ruin for small investors who take on too much debt.

    香港聯合交易所董事會成員，知名的公司治理活動家戴維#韋布(David Webb)指出：“這是種不撐死就餓死的現象，是一個投機泡沫，(就象)其他時不時出現的IPO狂熱，如2000年的互聯網泡沫和1997年的紅籌股(中國內地公司)泡沫。”

"It's a feast or famine effect," says David Webb, a director of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and a prominent corporate governance activist. "This is a speculative bubble [like] other periodic manias for IPOs such as the 2000 internet bubble and the 1997 Red Chips [mainland Chinese-linked companies] bubble."

    在美國，投資者只能最多借貸50%的股票投資金額，而香港對券商提供的借貸額度沒有限制，只是券商須在香港的金融監管機構 —— 香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會(SFC)那里保持300萬港幣的流動資本。

Unlike the US,swheresinvestors can only borrow up to 50 per cent of the value of the stock they want to buy, in Hong Kong there are no limits to the margin offered by brokers. The main constraint is given by the requirement for brokerage houses to maintain liquid capital of HKm with the Securities and Futures Commission, the Hong Kong financial regulator.

    香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會為這種做法辯護，稱其使命并不包括監督投資者。“我們監管證券經紀公司，我們對個人投資者(在孖展投資時)投多少錢不予置評，”它表示。

The SFC defends this practice, saying it was not charged with overseeing investors. "We regulate brokers, we don't really have much to say about how much investors put in [when trading on margin]," it says.

    券商和投資者可能還不是由于信用泛濫，而導致的唯一潛在輸家。分析師們警告說，新股套利的做法助長了短期內的股票拋售。

Brokers and investors may not be the only losers from the easy credit frenzy. Analysts also warn stagging encourages short-term share sales.

    IPO之后，股價可能遭受拋售壓力，尤其是在強勁的上市令機構投資者不愿買入股票的情況下。不過，只要新上市的股票在開始交易后節節上漲，這些憂慮都不致于影響香港的散戶投資者們，他們還是會耐心地排隊認購下一個熱門IPO。

Share prices in the aftermath of an IPO can come under selling pressure, especially if a strong debut deters institutional investors from buying the shares. But, as long as offerings keep on rising on their debut, none of this is likely to trouble the investors patiently queuing around the block for the latest hot IPO.

    譯者/和風